Following last night's VP debate (be sure to check out my review of the VP debate), Mitt Romney got a very strong day of poll numbers today, particularly in Florida where he seems to be surging in most polls.
Here are the numbers, followed by my analysis.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.
* FLORIDA: Romney 51%, Obama 44% -- Romney +8% since 3 weeks ago (Mason-Dixon)
* FLORIDA: Romney 51%, Obama 47% -- Romney +2% since 1 week ago (Rasmussen)
* FLORIDA: Romney 49%, Obama 46% -- Romney +8% since 2 weeks ago (ARG)
* VIRGINIA: Romney 49%, Obama 47% -- Romney +1% since 1 week ago (Rasmussen)
* COLORADO: Romney 48%, Obama 47% -- Romney +2% since 1 month ago (Denver Post)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Romney 50%, Obama 46% -- Romney +9% since 2 weeks ago (ARG)
Romney made clear gains in all the polls listed today and has been seeing big jumps in Florida this week. Do I think Romney is up 7% in Florida? No. But are the trendlines in the state clearly moving to Romney since the debate? Absolutely, yes. Florida, along with North Carolina and Colorado, are three states that will probably be red in an election environment where the popular vote is very close. They're states that Obama would probably need to win the popular vote by 3-4% to win. Romney's surge in Florida is extremely important. It's an absolute must-win state for him and he is making the gains he needs there.
Virginia continues to be a bit confusing. In the last 24 hours, we've now had NBC/WSJ/Marist say Romney is up by 1%, CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac say Obama is up by 5%, and Rasmussen say Romney is up by 2%. It's a state that right now is looking like it will be decided by turnout.
Romney continues to make gains in the electoral college. If you put Florida and North Carolina into his column, he is within striking distance at 235 electoral votes to Obama's 237, while keeping Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado as swing states. Of course, Ohio remains the big question mark. Romney remains behind in Ohio, and without it, he faces a challenging climb to 270 electoral votes. The closer things get, both in terms of time until the election and tightening of the polls, the more it is looking like Ohio could decide this election.
It's worth noting that we continue to see very different numbers from pollsters that use traditional methods and include cell phones (NBC/WSJ/Marist and CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, for example) versus pollsters who use auto-calling and don't include cell phones (Rasmussen, for example). Obama got good numbers yesterday in the Marist and Quinnipiac polls, but bad ones today from Rasmussen, ARG, and Mason-Dixon.
The polls now enter the lame-duck period for a few days as we wait for the debate on Tuesday which may end up changing everything.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.