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High Point University. Conducted 9/29-10/10. Romney was stumping in NC. last night,which begs the question: If Romney is winning the election, what the hell is Romney doing in North Carolina, stumping for votes a mere three and a half weeks before election?..Just sayin


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Comment Preferences

  •  This is why: (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    belzaboo, radarlady, RichM, codairem

    The poll, which surveyed 605 likely voters from Sept. 29-Oct. 10, shows the raced tightened after the presidential date on Oct. 3. Prior to the debate, HPU showed Obama with a 49 percent to 40 percent advantage over Romney, but Romney saw a 49 percent to 43 percent lead from Oct. 4-10.
    •  Sorry (5+ / 0-)

      But, if you are the GOP nominee for President, and you are stumping for votes in NC , this close to an election, you are loosing

    •  so in other words (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The predebate sample was about ~250 people, and the post debate sample was about ~350 people.  I think that is an error of 6.2% for pre-debate, and 5.2% for post-debate, but I'm not positive how to calculate the error[though I did get 4% for 605 which is the reported error].

      •  This poll is weird. Looks like they merged 2 polls (0+ / 0-)

        together. Here's a link to HPU's release.


        Presidential race – registered voters

        Thinking ahead to the November 2012 elections, if the election for President of the United States were held today would you be voting for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?  

        Barack Obama – 46 percent

        Mitt Romney – 45 percent

        (Other) – 2 percent

        (Don’t plan to vote) – 1 percent

        (Don’t know/Refuse) – 6 percent

        (For registered voters, Sept. 29 to Oct. 10, n = 605, margin of sampling error is approximately 4 percent, percentages may not total 100 due to rounding)

        In the release, further breakdown of the above poll:
        Before the October 3rd Presidential Debate

        Barack Obama – 49 percent

        Mitt Romney – 40 percent

        (Other) – 2 percent

        (Don’t plan to vote) – 1 percent

        (Don’t know/Refuse) – 8 percent

        (For registered voters, Sept. 29 to Oct. 3, n = 291, margin of sampling error is approximately 5.75 percent, percentages may not total 100 due to rounding)

        After the October 3rd Presidential Debate

        Barack Obama – 43 percent

        Mitt Romney – 49 percent

        (Other) – 2 percent

        (Don’t plan to vote) – 1 percent

        (Don’t know/Refuse) – 5 percent

        (For registered voters, Oct. 4 to Oct. 10, n = 312, margin of sampling error is approximately 5.55 percent, percentages may not total 100 due to rounding)

  •  Bad News (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Umm, I hate to rain on your parade here, but this poll is incredibly bad news for Obama if you read the statement they issued.  This is a unique poll in that the same poll with the same methodology and everything else was in the field for a week before the debate and a week after, so it gives us a unusually clean look at the effect of the debate on the polling.  The result?

    Pre debate: O+9 (49-40)
    Post-debate: R+6 (43-49)

    This poll implies a massive 15-point debate bump.  Obviously, that's overstating things, but it's pretty sobering because there is no argument about methodologies or cell phones or whatever.  They were doing the exact same type of research on presumably a similar cohort of people and found a 15 point difference.

    •  Hmmm... (0+ / 0-)

      rec'd by balzaboo. Tells me all I need to know.

      "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

      by TLS66 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:28:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  re (0+ / 0-)

      Sept. 29 to Oct. 3, n = 291, MOE +- 5.75

      Oct. 4 to Oct. 10, n = 312, MOE +- 5.55

      15 points doesn't get out of the MOEs... that would require a bump of 22.6 (2*5.75 +2*5.55)

      •  Incorrect (0+ / 0-)

        As a statistician, I feel the need to point out that this is not mathematically correct.  The moe is (usually) a 95% confidence interval or two standard deviations.  The probability that both polls are simultaneously at the 5th percentile of their distributions is NOT 5%, it is (if they are independent samples) 5% x 5% or 0.25%, which is well outside the moe of the joint distribution.  The moe of the two polls together is something significantly less than 22%

    •  Good news (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Byblis, GainesT1958

      Makes NC toss up again on averagers where it should be

      Rasmussen only had it Romney +3.

      The reason it was "lean Romney" was because of Gravis Marketing calling it +9 for Romney.

      Probably still slightly favoring Romney but maybe those 200,000 the campaign registered to make the diff.

    •  Are we talking North Carolina here ? (3+ / 0-)

      I'm sorry, but there's no way my state has Obama up 9 points anytime this cycle. 1 or 2 MAYBE.

      That said, NC can still be won if we GOTV.

      Go Team !!!

      Did Biden 'Release the Kracken' last night or what ?

  •  This is a terrible polling method n/t (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwjjd, erush1345
  •  A 12 day poll? Seriously? Why bother? n/t (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwjjd, erush1345
  •  The point is (5+ / 0-)

    NC is a tossup that Romney could plausibly lose. Will be decided by ground game.

    And if he loses it, its over for him.

    Add Florida, Virginia and Ohio to Romney must win states.
    Cannot afford to lose any of them.


  •  North Carolinian here (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    We Won

    Simply put, Romney can't win without it.  If this state stays blue, it likely means the entire East Coast (except for South Carolina and Georgia) has gone blue.  And it also means Obama has won Ohio.

    In other words, there is no mathematical or politically realistic way Romney can get to 270 without North Carolina.

    Romney-Ryan: America's Rollback Team

    by Christian Dem in NC on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 03:47:25 PM PDT

    •  I think you're going to stay blue (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      highacidity, GainesT1958, We Won

      Here's why.  The main coalition voters of Obama who were most enthusiastic for Obama and who have continued to stay in Obama's corner even through the rough times are the same ones who put him over the top in North Carolina in 2008.  It's why among individual states polled on approval rating, Obama's approval rating has declined the least in North Carolina (and a few other heavily blue states).  I think it will be very narrow but I think we will hold it as well as Virginia once again.  

      Check out my new blog:

      by SoCalLiberal on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 03:55:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It's not bad (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    NC will be very close.  

    Check out my new blog:

    by SoCalLiberal on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 03:58:02 PM PDT

  •  Romney Needs NC. Without NC he can't win. Also, (0+ / 0-)

    he would not just lose the election, he would be blamed for the eventual collapse of the Republican party.

    Brand new favorite RSS feed of Daily Kos Radio Podcasts
    Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

    by We Won on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 04:36:11 PM PDT

  •  Michelle Obama coming on Tuesday (0+ / 0-)

    I got an email tonight, will pick up a ticket tomorrow to see her in Chapel Hill. It is all about getting out the vote. More Latino registration, more Dem registration over 2008 is what is happening on the ground here. Early voting starts next week.

    George W. Bush: the worst Republican president SO FAR.

    by Chun Yang on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 05:09:07 PM PDT

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