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Let's face it: The current trend does not look good. I am not saying the sky is falling but Obama has a problem and in my experience you cannot solve a problem unless you acknowledge one exists and thoroughly assess the situation

Most of thought the gains Romney made after the 1st debate would be temporarily but that has proven to be incorrect. Nate Silver is not a partisan and he has stated these gains are sticking but I believe they can be reversed.I have not seen any polls to show what the effect of Biden's knock-out punch has (Maybe we will have to wait until Monday) but its still on Obama:

Here's the good news

http://www.gallup.com/...

According to Gallup (they have a reliable track record) the difference between Registered and Likely Voters is small.Romney, according to a  New York Times Poll) came across as a "strong leader" Obama has to dispel that perception. He cannot just "win the next debate" He must show the American people that Romney cannot be trusted! He is a liar  I believe there is enough evidence to do that. Obama still has a 50% approval rating. He is still liked.He has to use that as a bass and build on it.He as to find a way to take Romney's own words and use them against them. The pressure is on. I will say if Obama loses the next debate, Its over

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (0+ / 0-)

    a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

    by Jamesleo on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:09:49 AM PDT

  •  I'd love to hear from some folks in (0+ / 0-)

    Ohio on the state of the race there.

    If President Obama wins Ohio, it's very difficult to cobble together an electoral college win for Romney.  

    I'm guessing this week's debate will give us a reinvigorated Obama, and that will make swing state victories just that more steep for Romney.  

    Democratic Senate candidates are also doing very nicely with just 24 days to go.  That trend could also bolster the President's chances at carrying key states.  

  •  It's been 7 days since the bounce started (0+ / 0-)

    To have expected this bounce to be gone in 6 days is ridiculous.

    Everyone Chill the fuck out! I got this - unknown but credited to Barack Obama

    by natedogg265 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:22:58 AM PDT

    •  Bu t the bounce appears to be getting bigger (0+ / 0-)

      and not slowing down

      a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

      by Jamesleo on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:25:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  early data from yesterday suggests otherwise (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Remediator, KibbutzAmiad, doroma

        Reuters/Ipsos has Obama gaining 2 points among likely voters and restoring his pre-debate 3 point lead among registered voters.

        RAND has Obama surging back to a +3 lead this morning.

        Granted, these are only two polls, but we could be seeing a Biden bump beginning to materialize this morning.

      •  Well that's not so. (0+ / 0-)

        All of the poll averages I have seen show the bounce shrinking.

        The 47% also "pay all the taxes that are legally required and not a dollar more" but when Romney does it he thinks it's a virtue, while when they do it, he thinks they are deadbeats.

        by jsfox on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:43:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Romney is up in Florida and in New Hampshire (0+ / 0-)

          Thats not good news. I am not saying the sky is falling but its time to be concerned and reassess what is going go. Obviously, Obama and his team are aware of it Don't tell me that Biden's performance was not effected by Obama's disaster and it was a disaster. The difference between Con-servatives and Progressives is Progressives admit when we screw up

          a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

          by Jamesleo on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:57:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  ffs (0+ / 0-)
            Progressives admit when we screw up
            First of all, it's a matter of opinion whether or not Obama screwed up the debate. MSM certainly wants us to think he did.

            2nd, and most important, do we have to keep beating to death the notion that a single debate plus MSM spin make for a huge disaster ?

            I am sick to fucking death of the doom and gloom. Doom and gloom does not energize the troops. It sure is depressing though.

            Re-elect Senator Debbie Stabenow (MI). Screw Pete Hoekstra.

            by BitterEnvy on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:25:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Its not about me or what I say (0+ / 0-)

              Look at any poll Pre Debate and Post Debate Are they all lying? Obama lost in the eyes of the viewing public! He lost ground valuable ground he gained post convention and 47% comment by Willard. Deny this at your own risk!

              a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

              by Jamesleo on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 07:31:44 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Hold on Sparky (0+ / 0-)

            Where did I say Obama didn't screw up. Please point it out to me. Next I wasn't looking at state by state polls, but poll averages. The ones I have seen show the Romney bounce from the Presidential debate flattening or shrinking. Are we out of the woods? No, nor did I say we were. Are we in serious trouble? No to that as well, could we be? Yes. Biden may have staunched the bleeding, but it will be up to Obama to get the trend moving in his direction again.

            And you're right Progressives admit when we make mistakes sometimes too willingly and too loudly. We end up only adding to meme of Obama has lost! We could stand to learn how to control the narrative in our favor instead ceding the ground to the other guys.

            The 47% also "pay all the taxes that are legally required and not a dollar more" but when Romney does it he thinks it's a virtue, while when they do it, he thinks they are deadbeats.

            by jsfox on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 08:00:39 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It seems like we agree (0+ / 0-)

              I find it amusing that the right-wing pundits blaming the moderator and/or calling attention to Biden's laughing as the reason for Ryan's failure. Ryan failed because he got caught in a lie and was less informed of the issues and is defending a plan/platform that is indefensible.
              Obama must repeat this performance on Tuesday

              a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

              by Jamesleo on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 08:23:19 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  For Obama, this should not be all that daunting. (0+ / 0-)

    It is true that a lot will be riding on the next debate... but the Obama I've watched over the years seems to thrive on this kind of pressure.  If I had to guess, I'd say Obama does not enjoy campaigning and that he almost seems to need a competitive situation to be at his best.  Remember the 2008 primary season?  

    The hard part? Obama must remain presidential and can not do what  Biden did with laughter and outraged facial expressions.  But he must hammer Romney for being untrustworthy and untruthful.  He must forcefully call Romney out on specific lies (about medicare, etc.)

    This isn't all Obama, either.  It's Romney.  He suddenly sounded like a reasonable guy, and people are giving him another look.  But I don't think he can get away with lying his way through another debate.  Obama can't allow it, and the press can't.  I don't think they will.

    The media has tremendous power, here.  If they want to help put a guy like Romney--- a liar with no core values-- in the White House, then we may just end up with that.  

    •  The Libian situaiton could be troubiing (0+ / 0-)

      He has to be prepared and stop this right now!!

      a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

      by Jamesleo on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 09:23:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I say this race is not over (0+ / 0-)

    until the last polls close on November 6.

    Duh. Anyone who think it's over before that moment is just a doofus.

    •  Of course (0+ / 0-)

      But we can see trends and the current trend is not good Some quick weekend  polls show a slight reversal after the Biden/Ryan Debate but Obama needs to "blow Romney out of the water"

      a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

      by Jamesleo on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 09:45:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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