Virginia voter registration numbers do not get a lot of attention because we don't have by-party registration. Therefore, you can never tell who is winning the registration battle. I have looked inside the numbers reported by the VA SBE to date--through September 30th--and think I see some obvious reasons to think we are winning handily on this front. With new registrations favorable to President Obama, and the addition of former Republican Congressman Virgil Goode to the ballot, it is going to be very hard for Romney to win Virginia's 13 electoral votes on Nov. 6th.
Step below the orange arabesque to get a peek at the numbers.
* There are 284,312 net new voters in Virginia since the 2008 election through September 30, 2012.
* Of those, 182,254 new voters are in localities that Barack Obama won, or 64% of all new voters. Obama's won Virginia by 234,000 votes in 2008.
* 166,290 new voters are in localities that Obama won by greater than 2,000 votes. Only 67,076 new voters are in localities that McCain won by greater than 2,000 votes.
* 157, 984 new voters are in localities that Obama won by greater than 5,000 votes. Only 40,480 new voters are in localities that McCain won by greater than 5,000 votes.
* 147, 503 new voters are in localities that Obama won by greater than 10,000 votes. Only 24,343 new voters are in localities that McCain won by greater than 10,000 votes.
* The largest jumps in registrations are in Northern Virginia, which should be very strong for Obama. The 5 localities below represent 121,792 new voters. Obama won these areas by a combined 227,098 votes, which nearly equals his victory margin from 2008.
- Fairfax County = 41,793
- Prince William County = 30,904
- Loudon County = 27,155
- Arlington County = 14, 624
- Alexandria City = 7,316
* The next largest registration area would be the Richmond suburbs, with about 23,000 new voters combined. Henrico County and Chesterfield County should cancel each other out, though, with the latter being Republican and the former now a blue stronghold.
* Likewise, growth in Virginia Beach and surrounding areas looks like a zero sum game.
* Voters have through Monday to register, so I expect these numbers to be appreciably larger by election day.
My conclusion is that the new registrations in the localities closest to D.C. are going to form a huge blue wall. Northern Virginians, who likely either work in government or have family members who do, are going to vote for the only candidate who thinks government works.