Skip to main content

Virginia voter registration numbers do not get a lot of attention because we don't have by-party registration.  Therefore, you can never tell who is winning the registration battle. I have looked inside the numbers reported by the VA SBE to date--through September 30th--and think I see some obvious reasons to think we are winning handily on this front.  With  new registrations favorable to President Obama, and the addition of former Republican Congressman Virgil Goode to the ballot, it is going to be very hard for Romney to win Virginia's 13 electoral votes on Nov. 6th.  

Step below the orange arabesque to get a peek at the numbers.

* There are 284,312 net new voters in Virginia since the 2008 election through September 30, 2012.

* Of those, 182,254 new voters are in localities that Barack Obama won, or 64% of all new voters.  Obama's won Virginia by 234,000 votes in 2008.

* 166,290 new voters are in localities that Obama won by greater than 2,000 votes.  Only 67,076 new voters are in localities that McCain won by greater than 2,000 votes.

* 157, 984 new voters are in localities that Obama won by greater than 5,000 votes. Only 40,480 new voters are in localities that McCain won by greater than 5,000 votes.

* 147, 503 new voters are in localities that Obama won by greater than 10,000 votes.  Only 24,343 new voters are in localities that McCain won by greater than 10,000 votes.

* The largest jumps in registrations are in Northern Virginia, which should be very strong for Obama.  The 5 localities below represent 121,792 new voters.  Obama won these areas by a combined 227,098 votes, which nearly equals his victory margin from 2008.

     - Fairfax County             = 41,793
     - Prince William County    = 30,904
     - Loudon County            = 27,155
     - Arlington County          = 14, 624  
     - Alexandria City             = 7,316  

* The next largest registration area would be the Richmond suburbs, with about 23,000 new voters combined.   Henrico County and Chesterfield County should cancel each other out, though, with the latter being Republican and the former now a blue stronghold.

* Likewise, growth in Virginia Beach and surrounding areas looks like a zero sum game.

* Voters have through Monday to register, so I expect these numbers to be appreciably larger by election day.

My conclusion is that the new registrations in the localities closest to D.C. are going to form a huge blue wall.  Northern Virginians, who likely either work in government or have family members who do, are going to vote for the only candidate who thinks government works.

Originally posted to Twodaiquiris on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:22 PM PDT.

Also republished by Virginia Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site