Skip to main content

I thought it might be fun to give a somewhat arbitrary ranking of each day's polling for President Obama to get an idea of how good we should feel about the election on any given day, and to help cut through the poll clutter.

The scale will work as follows:

1-A terrible polling day for the President. The polls show Obama in worse shape than in previous days.
5-Polls show the status quo of previous days.
10-President Obama made some quality gains, and is in better shape than previous days.

Today's polls started as a pretty meh mixed bag. Rasmussen tracking was essentially unchanged, with Mitt Romney leading the President by a point, 49-48. Gallup's Likely Voter track shows Romney ahead 49-47, unchanged from yesterday, though Obama expanded his lead among Registered Voters from 49-47 to 49-46. Gallup was particularly disappointing, because last Friday, which was a bad polling day for Obama, was removed from the 7-day tracker. The IBD/TIPP tracking poll was essentially unchanged from yesterday, and it shows a tie.

Two late day state polls bring today's rankings up slightly above yesterday's status quo. PPP showed Obama leading by 5 in Ohio, which is actually an increase in his lead there from PPP's last poll two weeks ago. Particularly encouraging was that PPP indicated on Twitter that the race was roughly tied there on Friday, but Obama did quite well today. As I wrote the other day, Ohio has been a bit of a firewall for Obama. If he really leads there by 5, despite his recent polling slides elsewhere, he is still in very good shape in the Electoral College.

More interestingly, a poll from Behavior Research Center (huh?) showed Obama with a rather implausible 2 point lead in Arizona. This is out of step with all other polls there, which show a Romney lead. Nate Silver noted that this firm polled Spanish-only voters, and thus, might capture Democratic support that other polls miss.  

Overall, the national polls showed little movement, but because of a couple of promising state polls, Obama's polling position was slightly improved from yesterday.

Tags

Poll

On a scale of 1-10, how would you rate Obama's polling day?

1%2 votes
0%1 votes
2%3 votes
5%6 votes
23%26 votes
32%37 votes
18%21 votes
7%8 votes
2%3 votes
5%6 votes

| 113 votes | Vote | Results

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site