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By now I'm sure everyone has seen the Arizona poll showing both Obama AND Carmona ahead, along with the PPP poll showing Obama ahead in Ohio by 5 points. Here's how it effected the map of polls excluding those affiliated with the GOP or have awful track records (tip for the concerned, don't bother convincing me GOP polls matter, because it won't work).

Since yesterday, the only change has been Arizona which shifted from Likely R -> Lean R. When I said Romney needed to get some lean states, this isn't exactly what I had in mind! He needed to get NC, FL, or both into lean, instead he's losing ground he already had! Really not good for Willard.

Now for Ohio. Although PPP's Obama +5 result was not enough to push Ohio into the likely D column (largely due to a SurveyUSA poll which disagrees with the consensus of PPP, Marist, and CNN) it solidifies Ohio as a lean D state, and makes Romney's road to a win very difficult if not impossible. I decided to add another map this time as well, assigning toss ups to the candidate currently ahead in them according to the reliable polls. Here is the result:

Now, this map probably looks a bit odd to most of you. It's not very often you see a projection where North Carolina is blue and Florida is red. Here's why. In North Carolina, the last few reliable polls to come out were High Point University showing Obama +1, SurveyUSA showing Obama +2, and PPP showing a tie. All of these besides High Point were conducted before the debate, so it's likely NC will shift to the red column once reliable post debate polling comes out.

Now, for Florida. It going red is largely based on a single Mason Dixon outlier (that I'm sure most are familiar with by now) that shows Romney up 7 points. I only exclude pollsters that have little to no track record, an awful track record, or known ties to the GOP. As far as I know, while Mason Dixon's results usually have a Republican house effect, they are a non partisan pollster with a long track record. There's simply no basis for excluding them. Feel free to adjust Florida to blue in your head if you want to ignore their outlier though. :)

Now for the Senate:

The only change that has happened is Arizona going from Toss Up -> Lean D. This is a BFD. The two most recent polls have shown Carmona with a lead. Flake and the RNC are getting desperate and we have a real chance here. Will Arizona's natural partisan tide re-assert itself? Perhaps, but the polls say otherwise for now.

Safe D: ME(R)^
Likely D: MO(D), OH(D), PA(D), VA(D), FL(D)
Lean D: AZ(R)^ CT(D), MA(R)^, WI(D)
Toss Up: IN(R), MT(D), ND(D)
Lean R: NV(R)
Safe R: NE(D)^

Senate without Toss Ups, Angus King as Dem: 53-44-3.
Senate assuming candidate with tiny leads wins: 55-45. (GOP picks up NE and MT, Dems pick up ME, MA, AZ, IN).

Originally posted to PALiberal1 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 11:01 PM PDT.

Also republished by Baja Arizona Kossacks.

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