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Let's start with the presidential.   I am not yet ready to lock down percentages or electoral votes, but I have not swayed from this -  Obama will win by at least 4% in the popular vote and at least 303 electoral votes.

On EV calculation -  the states he won last time now have 359 EV, from which I subtract IN and 2nd CD of NE for a starting baseline of 347.

He will at worst lose FL and NC, which is how I get to 303.

I will return below the fold to my reasoning on this and the other items.

The Dems hold the Senate.  Of the seats they currently hold they will lose NE unless Obama gets up to +9 in the popular vote which is unlikely.  They may lose MT.  They will hold all other current seats giving them 51.  They will pick up at least 2 current Republican seats -  ME (assuming King caucuses with them) and MA, and have real possibilities of several more -  NV, AZ, and IN.

The House is problematic.  At worst the Dems pick up net 17 seats, falling short of the 25 they need to control.  As OBama's margin widens, the odds of picking up more increase.  If they are very lucky, they could pick up net 30 for very narrow control.

My thinking below the fold.

First, if you follow the betting market and Nate Silver, Obama has not falling below a 60% chance of reelection.  Take that for what it is worth.

Second, although some of the "battleground" states have had polls that show them perhaps leaning Romney, especially CO, my sense has been that for several of them the Hispanic vote is not accurately accounted for, nor is the superior Obama ground games.

Third, I still believe that there is some damage to Romney because of his being Mormon, which in a few places is compounded by running with a Catholic

Fourth, in a couple of states I expect the presence of Johnson and Goode to bear an impact, especially when combined with the point above, which gives disaffected folks who do not want to vote for Obama a place to go.  The effect could be a net (remember, Stein takes some from Obama) of as much as 2-3 points in a place like Virginia.

Fifth, the massive amounts of negative ads seem to have diminishing effects, unless those ads either reinforces previous doubts about a candidate or the candidate does somethings that reinforces what the ads are saying.   The Obama campaing's relentless dismantling of Romney over the summer, when he failed to tell a positive story about himself, set a meme that got strongly reinforced by the 47% comment.  While to a degree Romney got a bit of a bounce from his debate performance, most of that was R's being willing to come home.  I am not sure that will hold.

I still, if pushed, think if Obama has DECENT performances in the final two debates, that should push his popular vote margin back up to 6%+.  And then there is this -  I think it is quite possible that the final monthly jobs reports the Friday before the election will show a drop below 7.5% unemployment, possibly even as low as 7%.  Numbers like that will give a late boost, particularly IF during the debate tomorrow Obama comes across as better understanding and connecting with ordinary people -  think of the '92 Town Hall debate.

What is Obama's topline electorally?   In theory he could take both NC & FL and the 21nd EV in NE to be up to 348.  The next state to fall would be AZ, because of the Hispanic vote, which would take him to 359.   It is still possible with a strong performance that he could pick off MO for 11, SC for 9 and GA for 16, but that would be an absolute ceiling, probably requiring a 10% national popular vote margin, which would give him395 EVS.  I think most likely remains 332/333  - picking up FL but not NC, and the 2nd CD in NE, although both remain in play, NC b./c of ground game and antipathy to Mormons, and the 2nd CD because there is TV in Omaha largely aimed into Iowa but having a local effect.

In the Senate,  I write off NE.  I am somewhat hopeful of running everything else which would result in 57 votes in the Senate.

In the House, I am hopeful of getting rid of a number of horrid Republicans -  King, Cravaack, Bachmann and West.  West is probably the most likely of these to go.  

Still,  the hardest outcome to call is the House, in part b/c of redistricting, and in part b/c we are going to lose some seats we should otherwise win, such as in CA where there is no Dem on the ballot b/c of the new primary system, and possibly the 1st CD in WA b/c the primary led to a weak candidate and the Obama campaign is not pushing actively in the state.

These are my current half-baked thoughts.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Agreed about Romney's debate "bounce" (5+ / 0-)

    The debate bounce was the right/center right essentially saying: "He's not quite dead yet!!"

    While to a degree Romney got a bit of a bounce from his debate performance, most of that was R's being willing to come home.  I am not sure that will hold.

    Every honest communication poses a risk that we will hear something that could challenge or change us. -- Kenneth Cloke

    by GreenMtnState on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 04:48:50 AM PDT

  •  not so useless! (19+ / 0-)

    gonna sew this diary into a blankie and happily suck my thumb for the rest of the day

  •  My realistic appraisal (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jerry J, cotasm, VClib, MHB

    neither Cassandra, nor Pollyana...

    Obama by a hair (Ohio +.8% + Nevada +2% for 271 EV, narrow losses in CO, IA, VA & -2 in FL)

    Senate: D loss: NE, MT, ND
                 D p/u: MA, ME
    Too close to call: CT
     = Dem control (51-53 seats)

    House: Dem gain 10 seats

    I can't believe our election is being decided by people who can't tell the difference between republicans and democrats...that's like letting a dog choose what color to paint your house.

    by PBJ Diddy on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 05:11:34 AM PDT

  •  Obama loses VA (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jerry J, Gooserock

    due primarily to the influence of coal and defense contractors. That takes him to 290. After that, it gets really dicey. Realistically, this one likely won't be decided for days, perhaps weeks, and may well go into the courts.

    •  290 is a clearcut win. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      •  I can do math. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        But that's assuming that he doesn't lose more states. And right now, that's not a safe assumption. Throw out WI, NH, or IA, and it's going to be a long, unnerving night/week/month.

      •  Yeah, I can do math. (0+ / 0-)

        But that's assuming he doesn't lose anything else. Throw out WI, NH, IA, any combination thereof, and it's going to be a long, unnerving night (week, month).

        •  Sorry for the redundancy, (0+ / 0-)

          my browser is acting up this morning.

        •  but 270 is less than 290 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          So I just don't understand your comment.  

          •  OK, let's try it again: (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Losing VA would take him to 290. But he could ... lose ... more ... states. If he does, he would have less than 290. If he loses enough states, he could find himself hovering around 270, which is indeed less than 290. If that happens, it may be a while before we will know who our president will be for the next four years.

            Does that help?

            •  Sorry, no (0+ / 0-)

              Once either candidate has 270 electoral votes, the election is decided.

              •  <FACEPALM> n/t (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
              •  I think I get what MHB is saying (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                Though I don't think it was really that clear.

                I think what MHB is saying is what if we have a situation like 2000, where one state is remaining (and too close to call, also likely for a recount), and both Obama and Romney have under 270 EVs without that state.  That is, whoever wins that state gets over 270.

                Then it will get really dicey with court battles and all.

                But I don't think that will happen.

                #RomneyRyan2012: Because one white, rich, male Republican asshole is never enough.

                by mconvente on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 07:17:03 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  There are lots of possibilities: (0+ / 0-)

                  There could be more than one state too close to call. There could be one or more states so close that they are not called until the wee hours of the morning, or well into the next day. There could be one or more states in which recounts will have to be done. If that happens, things will get really messy -- 2000 will look like a church carnival in comparison.

                  Or none of that may happen.

                  The bottom line is, it's going to be close -- just as most of us have assumed it would be from the beginning. And yet, if Obama hadn't screwed the pooch in the first debate, we probably wouldn't be having this dialogue right now.

                  •  I do not think it will be so close (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MHB, elmo, BenderRodriguez, mconvente

                    that it will not be called

                    I expect both OH and VA to be called for obama within 90 minutes of the polls closing ,perhaps sooner, and that's the ballgame.  Then it is just a matter of polls closing on the West Coast and in NY to call the election.

                    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

                    by teacherken on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 08:00:25 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I hope you're right: (0+ / 0-)

                      Then we can all go to bed early. Or stay up and party, whichever we chose.

                      •  well, I have to stick around for quite a while (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:

                        I will be at the National Democratic Club with my computer tied into a big screen tv checking details on things like House and Senate races  -  have done something like this the previous two federal elections and was asked to do it again

                        otherwise I would probably be at the party for the Dems in NoVa

                        "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

                        by teacherken on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 08:17:06 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                  •  OK, I'm calling this (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    elmo, mconvente

                    This is unacceptable

                    And yet, if Obama hadn't screwed the pooch in the first debate, we probably wouldn't be having this dialogue right now.
                    Now maybe I'm feeling tender this morning, but this reads, to me, like tollish bullshit.
                    Romney stood proud and tall and lied his ass off, aggressive and rude, ready to be challenged.
                    Obama stood back and let this go; not a good move...but...

                    1) An aggressive white man is seen in the media (and, unfortunately probably by the majority of the electorate) as positive, forward, a winner. An equally aggressive black man (even half-black, right? One drop?) is seen as rude, arrogant, angry, and "above his place". I really think Obama and his aids choose to not respond to the abrasive Mitt, and see if he'll hang himself on his own words, which has been his habit all summer. It didn't work and was--in hindsight--a flawed move. But even around here a lot of advice before the debate was to sit back and not make mistakes, hoping that idiot/inarticulate Mitt would show up.
                    2) Syria shelled Turkey on Sunday or Monday, IIRC. On Tuesday the Turkish parliament voted to authorize an armed response, and the Turkish government proceeded to notify the UN Security Council and NATO that they were about to return fire. They did indeed shell a part of Syria on Wednesday, which is our late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Thus, Obama was probably working for the last 72 hours on a very serious situation, on the phone with a number of leaders and in conference with national security and Middle East advisers. I'm betting he didn't get much sleep Tuesday night while the situation unfolded, and worked all day on it, breaking only to head down to the debate.

                    But I have a hard time with

                    screwed the pooch
                    when mostly he was passive in response to the aggressive lies, and looked down, looking tired.
                    •  Alright then, (0+ / 0-)

                      Let's put this one on the floor.

                      How many of you think he did well, and how many think he screwed the pooch?

                      •  I think to some degree it is irrelevant (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MHB, elmo, mconvente

                        some in the media(Chris Matthews and Ed Schultz) for example wanted him to wipe the floor with Romney, and were angry that he was not more aggressive - their remarks on MS-NBC helped to dispirit some liberals and progressives

                        many in the MSM wanted a closer race to have things to talk about and were delighted to jump on the seeming clear victory that they claimed for Romney

                        at least one of the snap polls used a badly skewed sample

                        did Obama do well?  No, but he did not get the floor wiped with him, and in a sense it created a set-up both for Biden and for the remaining debates.

                        It would have been very unpresidential of him to flat out call Romney a liar.

                        He could have challenged him a bit more.

                        And his closing statement was not forceful enough.

                        That said, at no point since that debate has Romney be leading in the vast majority of calculations of the electoral college.

                        he succeeded in bringing some R leaners home, at least for now, and perhaps creating opportunity for some truly uncommitted voters.

                        There was actually a positive effect -  superpacs decided to keep money on the presidential where it actually has far less impact rather than shifiting it all to H and S races, and in the case of the former where it goes much further.

                        "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

                        by teacherken on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 08:22:17 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I'll buy that. (0+ / 0-)

                          I do believe that it was a grievous strategical error to remain passive in the face of Romney's wholesale lying, and   the President's halting delivery and avoidant body language simply reinforced popular stereotypes of him (e.g., "he can't speak without a Teleprompter"). All of that could have and should have been avoided. He was poorly prepared, and as a result he performed poorly; and while it was not a complete rout, it set up a very harmful media narrative that will continue at least through tomorrow night.

                          •  actually he was quite well prepared (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:

                            by those formally preparing him for the debate

                            but after the formal debate preparation was done, his close associates from Chicago apparently spoke with him and told him to dial it back

                            he might not have been prepared for how egregiously Romney was going to lie and change position, but from what I have heard from various sources he had been told to expect it -  after all, his practice partner was John Kerry who has both seen Romney up close and who knows how to dominate a debate

                            "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

                            by teacherken on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 09:29:27 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Interesting; (0+ / 0-)

                            Didn't know that.

                          •  If he was that well-prepared (0+ / 0-)

                            and was told what to expect, and then took the wrong advice and dialed it back, he really did screw the pooch.

                      •  Didn't say he did well n/t (0+ / 0-)
                      •  The narrative (0+ / 0-)

                        that Obama waisted a big lead with his debate performance, has been created. So if that is your definition for "screwed the pooch", I don't agree with it.

                        Gallup switched from RV's to LV's, the week of the debate. I've been waiting for Romney's "bounce" to show up in RV's. Those numbers stayed the same pre-debate, post-debate, and after the 2 days following the debate rolled off.
                        RCP switched Gallup's 7 day RV's for the 3 day lv.

                        PEW had the outlier, when they polled the days following the debate.
                        Those were the polls, and some really whacky rw polls that  were driving the narrative.

                        All the new polls coming out by reputable pollsters, show the same. Very little change.

                •  Under 270, sure (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:

                  but the original commenter wrote about "hovering around 270."

                  Yeah, I get the comment if either candidate is "hovering" under 270, but not "hovering" above it. Heh.

    •  Agreed.. and Obama loses Wisconsin as well (0+ / 0-)

      The GOP has the infrastructure on the ground to get out the vote in Wisconsin left over from the Walker debacle.    Ryan on the ticket helps as well.  

      So, FL, NC, VA and WI go to Romney.

      "Really dicey" is a pretty good assessment!

      If Romney takes CO, then all he needs is IA or NH to barely take him over.   We have seen a lot of activity in CO.. President Obama has been there a lot, so it looks like that could be a key state.

      The EV still favors Obama though..  but nowhere near Ken's optimistic predictions.

    •  no way Romney wins VA (12+ / 0-)

      for lots of reasons

      - increasing influence of NoVa
      - percentage of families esp in NoVa and Tidewater dependent upon Fed govt spending
      - antipathy towards Mormon
      - presence of Virgil Goode on ballot
      - Michael Farris, godfather of homeschooling, onetime R LT Gov candidate and founder of Patrick Henry College for Homeschoolers, has said while he will vote for Romney he will not as a leader endorse him
      - Tim Kaine running strongly in state over Allen despite millions of outside money against him

      I note that Kaine just did an event in coal country with Gov. Joe Manchin of WV  

      Oh, and is per usual, Obama has more than 2x as many field offices in state, as well as a lot of volunteers coming across the border from WV, MD and DC to help since those jurisdictions are not competitive

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 05:37:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not with Goode on the ballot... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z, mconvente, MHB

      I'm actually more worried about North Carolina than Virginia, which has become a buffer state that will be blue regardless.

      The most dangerous... programs, from a movement conservative's point of view, are the ones that work the best and thereby legitimize the welfare state. Krugman

      by BasharH on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 05:45:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  At least three quarters baked, I'd say, but (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AlyoshaKaramazov, mconvente, MHB

    these outcomes do require an Obama debate win strong enough to force the media types on TV (98% Republicans) to say that it was a 'tie' or that Obama was 'better' in the endless hours they get to repeat themselves to a large audience.

    We have only just begun and none too soon.

    by global citizen on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 05:32:02 AM PDT

  •  No such thing as a useless thought from you, sir. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    teacherken, MHB

    OT - Glad to have met you Sat evening. Sorry we didn't get to talk about MI. Hope to discuss further via kosmai.

    Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

    by JTinDC on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 05:37:59 AM PDT

  •  Thanks for your sensible outlook. (0+ / 0-)

    Sadly, I see that the bed-wetters and the oh-so-concerned are out already this morning, and to those folks, I say very clearly:

    No one is buying what your selling. Please go peddle your concern where someone may actually give a damn.

    Now, to be fair, if you're merely a bed-wetter but a legit Democrat, I say: buck up.

    But to the oh-so-concerned? We're laughing at you as much as Vice President Biden laughed at Rep. Ryan.

    How about I believe in the unlucky ones?

    by BenderRodriguez on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 05:45:10 AM PDT

    •  Haven't seen any bedwetters on this diary, (0+ / 0-)

      just people having a realistic discussion about might possibly happen on election day. Is there a particular person/comment at which you're directing this?

  •  Since This is the 1st Citizens United POTUS Contst (0+ / 0-)

    and aggressive national vote suppression contest, the heavy-air-war final 3 weeks are just opening, optimistic predictions are what the engineers call wild-assed guesses.

    I think we're weaker than this in the ballot box.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 05:46:17 AM PDT

    •  already news reports about ppl being turned off (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      by the advertising. Some of it, particularly that not associated with the candidates, is starting to really turn people off

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 05:52:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's been hideous in Ohio (0+ / 0-)

        The level of ad saturation is beyond belief and has been this way for so many months that I'm actually starting to look forward to the New Years diet ad onslaught.

        The worst ones are starting to surface on late night tv. There's a particularly vile ad from the nra ive seen in the last week. But theres another doozy from a rich nut job talking about how his personal fear of socialism has him voting republican. That one even features photos of hungry tattered reds. Sheesh!

        "I'm not a humanitarian. I'm a hell-raiser." Mother Jones

        by histopresto on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 07:28:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

        Ohio has been so heavily blasted that they're probably tuning the ads out by now.

  •  Companies aren't highly nearly so quickly (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    to support a half-point drop in unemployment in a single month, never mind a full point.

    Other than that... OK. I like what I'm reading here all told. :)

  •  Why 7-7.5%? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    This is a great diary ... interesting read as always, but any background to why you think the unemployment rate could drop to 7-7.5%?

    I'd love to see it, obviously, but this past report's drop to 7.8% mostly makes me wonder if we are just seeing some normal variation and an upward correction towards the mean is inevitable.  Of course, when it is trending down, it is hard to know exactly where the mean is, but half-point moves have been generally rare.

  •  This can improve. It can. Women and students. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SottoVoce, Woody

    To a lot of people, when either side talks about job creation, they just go blank.  It's too big, and it's too confusing to understand how either position would land them a job.  Especially if the only jobs are paying minimum wage.  

    What isn't confusing is making all abortion , or most , illegal in the United States.  
    What isn't confusing is making birth control pills illegal.
    What isn't confusing, is saying you will shut down Planned Parenthood.

    These are clear and easy to understand, and piss off women.

    I wish we ran an ad from the Mike Huckabee show where Mitt Romney clearly states he would outlaw all abortion and birth control pills by agreeing to the "Person hood" idea.

    In early October on his Fox News show, Mike Huckabee asked Mr. Romney if he would have supported "a constitutional amendment that would have established the definition of life at conception."

    "Absolutely," Mr. Romney said.

    Romney has stated repeatedly that he would sign a personhood or "sanctity of life" law.  Such laws allow no exceptions for abortion. None. Period.

    I really feel, if we hammer down on this, we can wipe out the Republicans on every level.  

    Women don't want "big government" telling them what they can or can't do with their own body.

    " With religion you can't get just a little pregnant"

    by EarTo44 on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 06:15:40 AM PDT

    •  such a law is unconstitutional at least in part (0+ / 0-)

      so long as Roe v Wade stands

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 06:17:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  the debate bounce was Obama's soft-support (0+ / 0-)

    taking a second look at Romney.  The uninformed, just starting to pay attention, who listen to the media to tell them who to vote for.

    The media drive the polls in the last two weeks.

    "A squid eating dough in a polyethylene bag is fast and me?" - Don Van Vliet

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 06:31:33 AM PDT

    •  not as much as you may think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      or as they might want

      for one thing, between early voting and absentees and states like washington which is all vote by mail, in many cases more than 30% of the vote is cast before election day, and this year it may be higher

      for another, by the time of last debate next week most people will have made up their minds, to the point that if my sense of things is close to correct, the electoral vote victory will already be sealed.  Then you have the question of whether some discouraged voters for the losing side stay home while others jump on the winning side for bandwagon effect

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 06:53:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It would make me really happy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    if the state of Missouri swung blue.  Very happy.  We do have (with the possible exception of McCaskill) a bunch of strong Dems running state wide and very weak Repubs (including Akin, of course).  

    I can't really tell f there are any ads being run in state, as my tv station serves the Iowa market and we are getting tons of presidential ads.

  •  Why so upbeat about the UE number? (0+ / 0-)

    A drop to 7.5% would be phenomenal and I would never expect it, but it is possible. 7% seems totally inplausible and I would expect it most likely to stay about the same.

    •  Nevermind I saw your response above. (0+ / 0-)

      But how much of a barometer is Gallup for the BLS figures?

      •  don't know, but remember (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I am also looking at drop in 1st time unemployment claims.  If we get a similar number for next two thursdays or even a better number then . . . .

        granted, speculation

        "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

        by teacherken on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 07:17:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  There is no way unemployment drops below (0+ / 0-)

    7.5% before election. It's simply unprecedented. I would bet on 7.7%. Also, I think you're way too optimistic about the House. The rest seems reasonable.

    •  too optimistic in a bottom line of +17-18? (0+ / 0-)

      I think that requires some clarification from you.  Joe Walsh is going down.  Allen West is going down.  Bachmann and Cravaack and King are all in trouble.  Roscoe Bartlett is going done.  Dan Maffei is going to take his seat back.  We probably get both seats in NH.   that's for starters.

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 09:31:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  We may lose a few seats as well. King is ahead in (0+ / 0-)

        the polls, Joe Walsh is close. I'm not sure about both seats in NH either. Polls in both Maffei's and Hochul's races are very close. We'll gain some seats but 17 looks close to the best case scenario to me.

        •  best scenario with Obama nationally <+2% (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          FG, MHB

          look at timing of those polls

          in the case of King-Vilsack

          the only polls came out while I was actively involved
          King's internal had him up 6 or 7

          independent had him up 3

          her internal had him up 2.  But in the last case, that represented a 14 point improvement since previous version of that poll had him up 16

          since then several things have happened in that race, the most important of which is that Bill Clinton did an event for Christie vilsack Friday, I think in Sioux City.

          Again, if Obama carries IA by >5%, I think she will win.

          Last time I checked about a month ago Obama had 66 or so field offices in state and Romney only around 20.

          I actually think final national popular vote margin will be at least 4%.  My prediction of 17 or so seats is predicated on that.

          "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

          by teacherken on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 10:46:36 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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