Let's start with the presidential. I am not yet ready to lock down percentages or electoral votes, but I have not swayed from this - Obama will win by at least 4% in the popular vote and at least 303 electoral votes.
On EV calculation - the states he won last time now have 359 EV, from which I subtract IN and 2nd CD of NE for a starting baseline of 347.
He will at worst lose FL and NC, which is how I get to 303.
I will return below the fold to my reasoning on this and the other items.
The Dems hold the Senate. Of the seats they currently hold they will lose NE unless Obama gets up to +9 in the popular vote which is unlikely. They may lose MT. They will hold all other current seats giving them 51. They will pick up at least 2 current Republican seats - ME (assuming King caucuses with them) and MA, and have real possibilities of several more - NV, AZ, and IN.
The House is problematic. At worst the Dems pick up net 17 seats, falling short of the 25 they need to control. As OBama's margin widens, the odds of picking up more increase. If they are very lucky, they could pick up net 30 for very narrow control.
My thinking below the fold.
First, if you follow the betting market and Nate Silver, Obama has not falling below a 60% chance of reelection. Take that for what it is worth.
Second, although some of the "battleground" states have had polls that show them perhaps leaning Romney, especially CO, my sense has been that for several of them the Hispanic vote is not accurately accounted for, nor is the superior Obama ground games.
Third, I still believe that there is some damage to Romney because of his being Mormon, which in a few places is compounded by running with a Catholic
Fourth, in a couple of states I expect the presence of Johnson and Goode to bear an impact, especially when combined with the point above, which gives disaffected folks who do not want to vote for Obama a place to go. The effect could be a net (remember, Stein takes some from Obama) of as much as 2-3 points in a place like Virginia.
Fifth, the massive amounts of negative ads seem to have diminishing effects, unless those ads either reinforces previous doubts about a candidate or the candidate does somethings that reinforces what the ads are saying. The Obama campaing's relentless dismantling of Romney over the summer, when he failed to tell a positive story about himself, set a meme that got strongly reinforced by the 47% comment. While to a degree Romney got a bit of a bounce from his debate performance, most of that was R's being willing to come home. I am not sure that will hold.
I still, if pushed, think if Obama has DECENT performances in the final two debates, that should push his popular vote margin back up to 6%+. And then there is this - I think it is quite possible that the final monthly jobs reports the Friday before the election will show a drop below 7.5% unemployment, possibly even as low as 7%. Numbers like that will give a late boost, particularly IF during the debate tomorrow Obama comes across as better understanding and connecting with ordinary people - think of the '92 Town Hall debate.
What is Obama's topline electorally? In theory he could take both NC & FL and the 21nd EV in NE to be up to 348. The next state to fall would be AZ, because of the Hispanic vote, which would take him to 359. It is still possible with a strong performance that he could pick off MO for 11, SC for 9 and GA for 16, but that would be an absolute ceiling, probably requiring a 10% national popular vote margin, which would give him395 EVS. I think most likely remains 332/333 - picking up FL but not NC, and the 2nd CD in NE, although both remain in play, NC b./c of ground game and antipathy to Mormons, and the 2nd CD because there is TV in Omaha largely aimed into Iowa but having a local effect.
In the Senate, I write off NE. I am somewhat hopeful of running everything else which would result in 57 votes in the Senate.
In the House, I am hopeful of getting rid of a number of horrid Republicans - King, Cravaack, Bachmann and West. West is probably the most likely of these to go.
Still, the hardest outcome to call is the House, in part b/c of redistricting, and in part b/c we are going to lose some seats we should otherwise win, such as in CA where there is no Dem on the ballot b/c of the new primary system, and possibly the 1st CD in WA b/c the primary led to a weak candidate and the Obama campaign is not pushing actively in the state.
These are my current half-baked thoughts.