Skip to main content

From a tweet I saw via @politicalwire:

A New York Magazine poll of political insiders, asked to predict the winner of the presidential election, finds President Obama overwhelmingly favored over Mitt Romney, 82% to 18%.  --Politicalwire

Upon further investigation, I found out that New York Mag polled a bunch of Dems and Republicans and found this:

What does Washington’s political elite really think? Over the past two weeks, we surveyed 74 Beltway insiders—37 Democrats, 37 Republicans—on the election, the state of politics, and what comes next. We wanted honesty, so we offered to keep their answers anonymous (in some cases, they allowed us to quote them). Among the respondents: Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom and Obama adman Jim Margolis; Kerry right-hand Bob Shrum and McCain consigliere Mark Salter; former senators Bob Bennett (R-Utah) and Tom Daschle (D-N.D.). On Capitol Hill we found a lot of strong opinions—and even, occasionally, a little consensus.
These are people who could be both said to be literally in the trenches while also having a bird's eye view of the situation...notice that half of them are Republicans...and they still think Obama will crush Mitt.  Though I'm not suggesting this is a great sample size (it isn't), it's interesting that when asked for their off-the-record, ostensibly actual views, both Dem and Republican insiders by a wide margin think Obama's going to be re-elected.

Let's dissect below the slanted orange S & P, shall we?

Photobucket

My impressions: About 75% of the Dems think Obama will win by a 1-3 point margin; only 12% of the Repubs think the same of Romney.

Photobucket

My impressions: Dems are extremely confident that we will control the Senate.  It's not looking good for the GOP in that vein.

Photobucket

My impressions: The chance of retaking the House is not high.  As for North Carolina, Romney currently holds a slight lead.  Then again, NC's Winston-Salem Journal, which endorsed McCain in 2008, just endorsed Obama.  You know Romney's bad news when a newspaper that last endorsed a Dem in 1964 (LBJ) skips over him.  More bad news for him: Obama may be trailing nationally, but he's leading in Ohio...without it, Romney's chances are slim to none.

Photobucket

My impressions: Both sides feel the same way towards the other. No surprises here.

Photobucket

My impressions: Romney's nose is a bit longer, even for the GOP.  I'd like to add that the calls on here for Obama to go for the jugular on Romney's lies–with some going as far as clamoring for Obama to call Romney a liar to his face–are short-sighted.  Lying is a part of politics (see below), and Obama will do himself no favors pulling a Joe Wilson on air.

Photobucket

I am still amazed that a lackluster debate performance (purportedly) held the same electoral gravitas as Romney's damning 47% news cycle.  It's almost like the media wanted to have something to latch on to as a sort of equivalence a la "This is Obama's 47% moment..."  Hmm.  Maybe I'm just imagining things.

My impressions: But, folks, the contrast could not be clearer.  It's like the difference between telling your mother "You are really irritating me right now!" and telling her "go fuck yourself".  That's the difference between Obama's debate and Romney's 47%.  How in the world the two got covered and treated almost identically by the Beltway is just beyond me.  But whatevs.

Photobucket

My impressions: See above.

Photobucket

My impressions: See?  How can a muted debate performance or even Bill Clinton's energizing speech be bigger turning point than a hot-in-the-pants political scandal like the 47%, which was by far the biggest news story in this election?  Pretty assbackwards if you ask me.

Photobucket

My impressions: Damn, I remember exactly where I was teh day I first saw that Firms ad: at a Doral, Florida gas station, where I had to literally pull over to watch the video again, which I did some 7 or 8 times in a moment of sheer floored-edness.  Remember how we all felt that day?  

Photobucket

My impressions: Meh.  Although I do take great joy in seeing the most uprated comment on this video over on Youtube: "Romney, fuck you."  LOL!

There are many, many more infographics over at NYMAG, but I don't have the time to caption them, but I will add the penultimate one:

Photobucket

DAMN RIGHT!  )


EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site