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Oct. 15, 2012
Obama: +0.3
Obama 46.9% | Romney 46.6%


This is a slight drop from President Obama's 0.7% lead yesterday.

To recap:
ABC News/Washington Post, President Obama +3
American Research Group, Governor Romney +1
Gallup, Governor Romney +2
IBD/Tipp, President Obama +0.3
RAND, President Obama +4.62
Rasmussen, Governor Romney +1
Reuters/Ipsos, President Obama +1

Link (TPM)

We're still awaiting PPP to come out, but overall, this was one of President Obama's strongest national polling days since prior to the debate. While national polls usually show where the battleground states are heading, this has not been the case with President Obama maintaining strong leads in what Huffington Post has called his firewall (link). Nate Silver discussed this yesterday in an excellent article: Breaking the State-National Poll Stalemate.


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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    "Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus"

    by Bedivere on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 11:15:51 AM PDT

  •  I don't know about "strong" leads (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    but significant and consistent leads... yes.

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 11:17:57 AM PDT

    •  I think +5 in Ohio (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Andrew C White

      from PPP, along with +6 from NBC/Marist and +4 from CNN at the height of Romney's bounce is as about as strong as you can get.

      Admittedly, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia seem to be slipping into the loss category, but with the drubbing received, I'm pretty comfortable heading into the debate tomorrow that we can lock away Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire.

      He just needs to land it. He lands it, we continue to do well in early voting. That's the beauty of this, is that we're not positioning ourselves just for November 6th. We're not idle. We have to win daily because people are voting right now.

      So yes, I'm nervous for the debate. But we were concerned about whether or not Ohio would be competitive. Barring a grave error by a lot of polling agencies, that doesn't appear to be the case.

      "Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus"

      by Bedivere on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 11:23:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  How is Romney a stronger candidate than McCain was (0+ / 0-)

    at this point?  

    I hate hate. I love the look in peoples eyes when they realize, for the first time, that they have power.

    by 4democracy on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 11:23:56 AM PDT

    •  The villification (0+ / 0-)

      of the president.

      Coupled with a tenuous economy and a MSM in the bag for Romney.

      Keep Calm and Carry On. But kick some unholy ass if the situation warrants.

      by GOPGO2H3LL on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 11:27:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think we were living in a fantasy world (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sherri in TX

      that presumed a challenger would not receive 45-46% of the vote. Which is where all these polls seem to be hovering around.

      There's an article showing that Governor Romney was surging pre-debate, and while the debate certainly exacerbated that, I think it was the base coming home, and it remains that. We need to continue to appeal to independents and undecided voters, which is what Vice President Biden did in that debate--something Republicans should be unhappy about (see, PPP poll out of Ohio and the CBS snap poll showing that).

      2008 needs to be viewed as an exception rather than the standard for the Democrats moving forward. Nate Silver states an incumbent with the approval rating President Obama has usually wins in a narrow election. We have a narrow election.

      Furthermore, remember how close the election was prior to the economy tanking. We're still campaigning in the states we've campaigned in for the last four Presidential elections. The only exception I would state is we're really competitive in Virginia, Nevada and Colorado at the expense of Florida. They're worth about the same (28 to 29 EVs).

      "Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus"

      by Bedivere on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 11:34:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That makes some sense. (0+ / 0-)

        We're only talking about 2-3% shifts either way, even if the graph formatting tries to paint a more dramatic picture.  I guess the brand itself is worth more than the candidate, in our current partisan climate.

        I hate hate. I love the look in peoples eyes when they realize, for the first time, that they have power.

        by 4democracy on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 11:42:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  precision beyond accuracy.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Honestly... what the hell is with reporting the decimal place?

     Is the poll so precise that it is worthwhile to distinguish between a "tie" and a "0.3% lead" or "46.9% support" and "47% support"?

    This isn't a bash against the poster... it's a bash against the pollster and their reporting.

  •  Unreliable IBD/TIPP poll (0+ / 0-)

    Their "polling" is probably about as reliable as those "polls" done by Repub-leaning Rasmussen.

    If you ever skimmed over IBD's ludicrous editorial pages (just the headlines alone discourage me from reading their drivel), you would quickly conclude that Willliam O'Neil and his editorial staff are as extreme right-wing as the Dumb Clucks at the Wall Street Journal.

    So any "poll" from Rasmussen or IBD/TIPP should be taken with a bagful of salt.

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