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So two polls on the Pennsylvania Senate race and Presidential election came out today and both of them paint different pictures of both races. First there's the Aleentown Morning Call/Muhlenberg's latest poll showing incumbent Senator Bob Casey Jr. (D) leading Tea Party Smith (R) by two points, 41-39:
http://www.politicspa.com/...
Note: though MCall did not announce the poll’s sample size or margin or error, the number of voters surveyed would have to be greater than 1,000 to produce a margin of error smaller than 2 percent. - Politics PA, 10/15/12
Then there's PPP showing Casey beating Smith by 11 points, 50-39:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
The Pennsylvania Senate race isn't looking terribly competitive. Bob Casey leads Republican challenger Tom Smith 50-39, an 11 point lead that's pretty similar to the 10 point one we found for Casey at 46-36 in July. Casey has a 44-36 advantage with independents and he continues to enjoy greater than normal crossover support for a Democrat, taking 17% of the GOP vote. He's winning white voters 47-43 and is at 50% with both women (50-35) and men (50-43).
Pennsylvanians continue to be closely divided on Casey's job performance with 37% approving of him to 39% who disapprove. That's largely because he's at only 58% approval with Democrats, but even though they're not necessarily thrilled with Casey most of them are still planning to vote for him. Smith hasn't proven to be a very popular challenger, with only 33% of voters rating him favorably to 36% with a negative opinion. 31% still aren't familiar with him.
It doesn't look like Casey will be able to match his 18 point margin of victory from 2006 this year- but he doesn't look too vulnerable either. - PPP, 10/15/12
Both polls also have the Presidential election numbers. President Obama is beating Mitt Romney by four points in Morning Call/Muhlenberg's poll but PPP has Obama beating Romney by seven points:
PPP's newest Pennsylvania poll finds Barack Obama's lead in the state declining by 5 points over the last month, but he still has a 7 point advantage at 51-44. He led 52-40 in mid-September.
Pennsylvania voters narrowly approve of the job Obama is doing, with 49% giving him good marks to 47% who disapprove. Romney continues to have trouble connecting with voters in the Keystone State, as 44% express a favorable opinion of him to 49% who see him negatively.
Here are some of the keys for Obama in Pennsylvania:
-He's competitive with white voters, trailing Romney only 49/46. Add in Obama's 86/7 lead with African Americans and it gives him his overall advantage.
-Obama leads with both women (53/42) and men (48/46).
-Obama has a 51/41 advantage with independents. - PPP, 10/15/12
Personally, I believe PPP's polling over Morning Call/Muhelenberg's poll. PPP surveyed 500 likely Pennsylvania voters from October 12th to 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. Morning Call hasn't released it's data plus I'm curious to know if Morning Call just did landline numbers or did they also include cell numbers. I always believed that Obama and Casey would win. Maybe not by as big of margins as Casey did in 2006 against Rick Santorum and Obama against John McCain in 2008 but still be decent numbers. PPP confirms that and I think PPP and Franklin & Marshall have been the most accurate. The Philadelphia Inquirer released their poll last week showing Casey defeating Smith by ten points.
The PA Senate race also proves how all over the place polling has been lately. Casey knew that he wouldn't win re-election by the same number he did in 2006 but I can't possibly believe Smith is closer than what Morning Call is suggesting. My guess is Casey will win by 8 points in the end. The Casey campaign has been very well aware of how Smith has been outspending him in negative ads. Luckily, Casey now has $5 million on hand to win this election and will be endorsed by major newspapers such as the Philadelphia Inquirer and the Pittsburgh Tribune Review.
As I said before, Casey and Obama are favorites to win and we scored a big victory when Judge Simpson blocked the Voter ID laws. Lets keep the momentum going, especially since Casey opponent is a wealthy tea bagger who's net worth is between $60-70 million. Donate to Casey's campaign:
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