Today on the polling front, as Kos notes in this excellent post, there was a bit of a cluster#%*k. There are numbers that partisans on both sides will like. As a result, polling today remains at the status quo level.
The trackers did not tell any coherent story. We all saw the Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP poll was pretty darn gloomy for Obama. It showed Mittens up 50-46. The Gallup poll of likely voters also showed Romney up 50-46, a two point net increase for him since yesterday. The candidates were tied among registered voters, which was also a two point pro-Romney swing from yesterday. On the plus side (sort of), Obama's approval inched up a couple of points. As we've mentioned, the approval ratings are sometimes a leading indicator, because they are a three-day track and not a seven-day track. Rasmussen moved marginally to Romney, going from a 48-47 lead to a 49-47 lead.
There was plenty of good news in some of the other (less publicized) national polls. Reuters-Ipsos' online tracking poll showed Obama moving into a 3-point lead, a two point improvement from yesterday. The IBD/TIPP tracker moved to Obama +1 from a tie yesterday (though the movement was very minimal...they calculate their polls down to the decimal point). The innovative (?) RAND poll showed Obama expanding his lead to 5 points.
So national polls were roughly a wash, though I will note that the major trackers, the ones that the mainstream media follows most closely (Rasmussen and Gallup) both showed expanded Romney leads.
State polling was also a mixed bag. Quinnipiac showed Obama leading in PA by 4, smaller than his lead in other polls there. On the other side of the spectrum, GOP-friendly We Ask America showed Obama with a 3 point lead in the crucial swing-state of Iowa. Obama holds a 2.3 lead in the RCP average of that state. If you combine all the 2004 Kerry states (Obama is currently leading in all of them), with New Mexico (Obama leads big), Ohio (Obama still leads albeit narrowly) and Iowa (Obama leads), then the President will be reelected, even if he loses NV, CO, FL, VA and NC.
All in all, some polling noise, but mostly same 'ol polling story today. Tied or tiny Romney lead nationally, and a small swing state advantage for the President. I'm praying that today's debate will change the tide and we could be seeing the Poll-o-Meter drift up by the end of the week.
Here's to a great Obama debate!