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Hopeful numbers from two NewsMax/Zogby Florida tracking polls, one with only pre-2nd-debate sample and one which includes Wednesday sample. 47-43 Obama/Romney amongst likely voters in the latest batch, up one point for Obama from the pre-debate sample. So here's the first indication that the "binders" debate is binding in our direction.

Zogby managed a pretty good sample for the poll ending on Tuesday - 828 "likely" voters - though it tends, like many, to skew somewhat heavily Republican. The breakdown from Zogby is 36 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican and 28 percent Independent. The Florida Division of Elections has voter registrations breaking down 41 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican and 21 percent Independent (http://election.dos.state.fl.us/...). Since the poll is a likely voter sample, this means that the pollsters may be hearing that there are more Democrats not likely to turn out than Republicans or Independents, so GOTV efforts may be critical to building margin for Florida. Otherwise the sample looks fairly balanced, so these are probably pretty good numbers.

NewsMax story on the pre-debate tracking poll

NewsMax story on the tracking poll with post-debate sample (complete with negative spin)

More below the squiggly thang...

A three to four point lead is four to five points better than the Gravis Marketing poll of Florida from Monday that had Romney ahead by one point. Zogby gathered its 3-point sample Sunday through Tuesday, during Romney's gradual nationwide decline in polls. So excluding some possible trailing interviews after the debates - not likely - this yet again seems to show that Romney was already in trouble in swing states that had buoyed his hopes after the first debate, and that the second debate is going to have a mounting impact in Florida.

The attitudinal questions indicate that it's still a very close race, however, with men providing much of Romney's support, whereas women are Obama's key strength. However, amongst women, only 46 percent were favoring Obama's re-election, versus 42 percent feeling he should go. That means that there were about 12 percent of women undecided on Obama deserving re-election, perhaps wanting a more strong showing from him that stated his case. Given what Obama accomplished in the second debate, this may be a key metric to watch in post-debate polls.

An article published by NewsMax on the tracking poll on the four-point Wednesday numbers cites Obama loss of support amongst both women and union households, which again underscores the "will he fight for us" factor that is likely continuing fallout from the first debate, and a factor that may turn around significantly, especially given the "binders" meme and Romney's seeming cluelessness on any workers below the board suite. Let's see how those attitudes wash out in the shift of the tracking sample day by day.

Time will tell on this state, but given that some of Obama's key weaknesses in Florida seem to have been targeted well by his performance in the debate, perhaps this 3-4 point edge from Zogby's tracking poll is the start of something good. If a few more union households come around and a few more women get off their hands and Democrat turnout is good, this is very likely a blue state for Obama, voter caging and polling chicanery notwithstanding.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Zogby.... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wisper, LordMike

    Am I the only one that feels more comfortable with Zogby saying Obama is down rather than up?

    •  Well... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TheGreatLeapForward, MBramble

      Let's face it, PPP is having a hard time drawing representative sample, so everyone's grasping at the reality. I feel pretty good about the sample makeup, so presuming that polling methods are decent, perhaps you could call this a fairly conservative picture. Maybe there's a blowout in the making...?

      •  This is why I think RAND (0+ / 0-)

        might end up with the best methodology... obviously I want this to be true because they have Obama up by 6% ....

        but their methodology really does make sense to me - you follow the same group of people throughout the cycle so you don't get wild swings based on who happens to answer the phone... and it seems like it would ensure that you get a representative sample (assuming they did a very good job selecting that 3500 person sample to start with...)

        perhaps there are other distortions built into this model though... by being a part of this thing, it may make the participants follow the news more closely (which in my opinion favors Obama - more informed = less likely to vote Romney) so...

        we'll see.

        •  "assuming they did a very good job selecting" (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MBramble

          I think that's the main potential flaw in these kinds of polls, so they could have a big error in the actual result, 6% up or whatever, but they may be better than traditional polls at detecting the changes. I'd say the thing to look at in the Rand poll then is not how much ahead Obama is but the fact that over the past week his position has been improving.

  •  Confused (0+ / 0-)

    Is this about Florida...or national race.

  •  link to poll? & is the poll for Florida? (0+ / 0-)

    a bit confused on that specific point

  •  This is what we are reduced to? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cryonaut, ferg, LordMike

    I have long said that you can't go wrong by assuming that the opposite of what Zogby says is true. I've seldom been led wrong by doing so.

    If Zogby says sun, bring an umbrella.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 10:21:30 AM PDT

    •  previously ignored exposed piece of shit pollsters (4+ / 0-)

      are being quoted whenever they have any good news.

      •  And that compares to... (0+ / 0-)

        Every other pollster that's out in never-neverland?

        Look at the fundamentals of any given poll, reputation is sometimes not as important as sample makeup. In this instance, factoring out for online responses favoring Democrats slightly, the sample looks to be pretty good. One key factor that I find that makes it a reasonably likely sample is that the Democrat sample is lower than registered Democrats significantly. If there were real online bias, then you'd think that it would be the other way around - unless Republicans in Florida are heavier users of the Web than Democrats. Given economic factors, perhaps so, in which case the online factor may cancel out with the likely voter factor, as it's typically harder to get Democrats to the polls. Take it for what it's worth.

        What I do see is people on Kos being afraid to put data out there for discussion, hoping against all hopes for "credible" data. All data is good, if you know what to make of it.

        •  Why do you believe Dem turnout will be lower (0+ / 0-)

          Might not be as high as 2008 but that may truly have been a historic outlier. I live in Massachusetts and the line in my town was blocks long. Even in 2004, with favorite son John Kerry on the ballot, the lines only started just inside Town Hall.  My theory is they are undercounting Dems and overcounting R's.

          •  Don't believe, just cautious (0+ / 0-)

            When Democrats are motivated, especially minorities, turnout is great. But it's always an issue, as you know, especially in Florida where there's likely to be unprecedented efforts at voter caging and tainting the ballots. Certainly early turnout bodes very well for Democrats. But I am concerned about keeping turnout momentum and getting past the corruption of the democratic process. You might say that voter suppression equals a built-in suppression of voter turnout.

      •  Sadly true. (0+ / 0-)

        It's as true with Repubs and Rasmussen (or, bizarrely, Dems and Ras this week!) as it is with outfits like Zogby.

        Nothing requires a greater effort of thought than arguments to justify the rule of non-thought. -- Milan Kundera

        by Dale on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 10:55:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Or not so bizarrely... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sjersey

          And that's the point. You have to look at the data, how samples are composed, etc. Having done research, I can say with a modest amount of authority that getting credible sample, even with the right techniques, can be enormously hard. Lots of variables in accomplishing that are beyond your control. So look at all data, look at the methods, weigh accordingly. To me these numbers say that Obama's trends are positive, but don't trust the margins - yet.

  •  You may want to add Florida to your title. (0+ / 0-)

    "Differences in political opinion are as unavoidable as, to a certain point, they may perhaps be necessary." George Washington

    by civil wingnut on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 10:22:00 AM PDT

  •  This is not newsworthy, Zogby polls are crap, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Williston Barrett, distraught

    I ignore them.  If I see confirmation from a more legitimate pollster, I'll pay attention.

    The only thing we have to fear is fear itself - FDR. Obama Nation. -6.13 -6.15

    by ecostar on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 10:22:52 AM PDT

    •  Based on... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TheChocolateChips

      I am not standing up for Zogby per se, but the sample size looks good and the party line breakdown is decent, as are some of the other key demographics. Given that likely voter polls have been hard on Obama, probably harder than early voting would indicate is likely to reflect reality, perhaps this is not so far off.

      •  Zogby employs an opt-in online panel of (0+ / 0-)

        likely voters.  It is not scientifically conducted, and many ppl have pointed out his poor record on predicting USS, much less, state polls.  I won't even cite the internals here, b/c its irrelevant to the problem I have with his methodology.  It's also why Zogby's polls aren't incorporated into Nate Silver's aggregate analyses.

        The only thing we have to fear is fear itself - FDR. Obama Nation. -6.13 -6.15

        by ecostar on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 02:34:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Newsmax is a right wing site (0+ / 0-)

    and Zogby is not the most accurate pollster. I'm not sure what to think about this.

    •  Yes, and they have spun it accordingly (0+ / 0-)

      I am aware of their reputation, so while one should take this and any other poll with a grain of salt (everyone's pushing for turnout, after all) the numbers are worthy of consideration. With Gallup out in deep-south sample never-neverland, at least this poll seems to have appropriate sample breakdown.

  •  Is this an online Zogby poll? (0+ / 0-)

    If that's the case then this poll is crap. If not then may be there is some useful information in the poll.

    "The best lack all conviction, while the worst/Are full of passionate intensity."---William Butler Yeats.

    by joy sinha on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 10:25:13 AM PDT

    •  Online bias may be a factor (0+ / 0-)

      And we all know that. You can't take the margins by faith because of that. But I think that it is safe to consider the trends. The trend is clearly for Obama, and the hand-sitting data for online women is probably not so different than non-online women. Also, look at the demo breakdowns for things like NASCAR lovers, conservatives, and fundamentalists. Seems about right.

  •  Gallup bad/Newsmax good? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slinkerwink

    Because, umm...

  •  Zogby vs Gravis (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    charliehall2, sjersey

    So a Zogby poll is used to contradict a Gravis poll?  Poor polling is used to repudiate fictitious polling?  LOL.

    •  too many polls (0+ / 0-)

      brain hurts.

      no more national polls for me.

      I only care about non-tracking polling in CO, NH, PA, FL, OH, IA, WI, NV, VA

      and no one day polls either.

      that's it.

      •  Fair point... (0+ / 0-)

        And yet the news cycle has been chewing stale numbers for two days, now. This is at least a fresh and, in my mind, reasonably collected sample from a key swing state.

      •  Sam Wang & 538 (0+ / 0-)

        This is my mantra! I just wish I could totally stick to it myself. But I really think we'd all be better off letting Sam Wang & Nate Silver crunch the numbers for us rather than trying to make sense of all of these numbers ourselves. Sure would be a lot less ups & downs than getting up for every good poll (RAND) and down for every bad one (GALLUP)

        •  Hmm, let other people do our thinking (0+ / 0-)

          OK, so let Silver and Wang do your thinking, as they crunch poll after poll with highly questionable sample. Let's not think about data, let's just go out there, assume the worst, and fight, fight, fight. Things to be said for that. But if this is about turnout in swing states and there's legitimate reason not to discourage Democratic turnout, then we should go for it. I think that we're in more danger of people being afraid to vote for Obama because he doesn't appear to be a winner than we are in trying to push turnout because it's too close to call. If reasonable data seems to say that he's landing punches, then highlight it. Don't wait for people to nod at sage electoral vote counts. This is all about the HOUSE SEATS at this point. If we see reasonable data which indicates that Obama is in and he needs House seats to support him, then that's at least as important to turnout strategy as counting to 270.

          •  not assuming the worst at all! (0+ / 0-)

            that's the point - Sam Wang has had Obama as a heavy favorite throughout ... I think the lowest he's been at is 83% chance of winning.

            likewise Obama has always been at least 60% (chance of winning) on 538.

            the thing I'm saying is that for people to just try to make sense of all of these polls on their own... it's a full time job to put these polls in context to consider their biases .... and to realize that any one poll could be an outlier.

            By the way; I agree that the flooding of right wing polls may be negatively effecting these poll averages - but even then, Obama leads.

  •  I like the reasoned, informed, (0+ / 0-)

    authoritative tone of this poll diary. Thanks.

    The run-up to this election has just been six kinds of nutty. Ya' think? There are a lot of very mixed indicators. Or perhaps I'm too hopeful about the "good" ones...

    Tipped and rec'd.

    It's here they got the range/ and the machinery for change/ and it's here they got the spiritual thirst. --Leonard Cohen

    by karmsy on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 10:33:27 AM PDT

  •  That's a clown poll, bro. (0+ / 0-)

    Zogby Internet poll?  I'll pass...

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 10:35:09 AM PDT

  •  Bizarre (0+ / 0-)

    How bizarre is it that a poll associated with the far right wing Newsmax is giving us much better news than Gallup? ... seems strange.

    RAND also has good news.

    Ras is Ras.

    From their past track record my guess is Gallup is just an outlier.

    •  Well, they did their very best to spin it negative (0+ / 0-)

      Here's a poll which indicates that Romney's going into a nosedive and NewsMax leads with Obama's problems with women and union households. At least they seem to quote real numbers while they put a sourpuss on.

  •  The polling data is becoming increasingly bizarre. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ferg

    Something appears to be seriously wrong with the polling methodology this year. It will be interesting to see who gets it right, and why.

    •  Fear is a factor (0+ / 0-)

      I think that it's hard for your average person to know what's the right thing to do this year. Your average person is scared to death, doesn't like the notion of another CEO president who wouldn't know a lunch pail from a trash can but somehow trusts "strong" leaders to get them out of a mess. That's what got Hitler into power, after all, and let's face it - the opposition uses Hitler's tactics in many instances. So when people are asked their opinion, fear makes it hard for them to find the basis of their convictions.

  •  Even Gravis has given Romney only a 1 point (0+ / 0-)

    lead in FL.  The race in FL is tight but I haven't seen a legitimate poll give him a lead in that state outside the MOE, whereas Obama has generally done well in such polls.  I would expect that by next week, Florida will show a tie with a slight Obama lead of 1-3 points depending on the pollster (but excluding GOP polls).

    As far as this poll is concerned, I saw their original poll last night and I initially thought it was a traditional phone poll but others have said that it is an internet poll. Zogby gave internet polling a really bad name in prior election cycles.  I do agree that the sample breakdowns are not unreasonable, and I am more than willing to take any good news from FL after what Mason Dixon and Ras did to us last week.  However, I would never take Zogby to the bank.  

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 10:45:57 AM PDT

  •  simple arithmetic, it doesn't add up (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    The same number of Floridians think he shouldn't be reelected as think he should.  44%

    And yet he leads 47% to 43%.

    There's a small % of Floridians who think he should not be reelected so they're going to vote FOR him.

    These are the people who will determine our future.

    •  Interesting point (0+ / 0-)

      Yes, I think that there are a number of disgruntled nose-holders out there - and I agree that they may hold the fate of this election. But given the choice between a fish that needs washing and a rotten fish, hopefully people don't go for Romney's rotten deal.

    •  Romney is the other choice (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pollwatcher

      Some people may not be big on Obama but think Romney is an unacceptable alternative.

      Doesn't seem like much of a stretch to me...

      •  But then it begs the question (0+ / 0-)

        What purpose would a question of, does he deserve to be reelected serve?  In fact, if this question is asked before the preference question, it could produce a bias in the preference results.

        •  Interesting Point (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          pollwatcher

          Yes, if it's asked before candidate preference it could have an influencing factor. Since the margin is narrower on this question, though, it would seem to indicate that it either came later or that its effect was somewhat neutral.

          I think that it's an interesting question, and not an uncommon one in political polls. It's a bellweather of "nose-holding" you might say, a factor that would effect turnout. If the difference between preference and deservedness gets big, it may be a turnout red flag. On the second poll the deserving numbers flipped, so not sure that that means at this point, especially since the women who didn't state a "deserving" opinion stayed the same. I think that women were looking for the right level of strength from Obama.

  •  need commas to separate the tags. eom (0+ / 0-)

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