Hopeful numbers from two NewsMax/Zogby Florida tracking polls, one with only pre-2nd-debate sample and one which includes Wednesday sample. 47-43 Obama/Romney amongst likely voters in the latest batch, up one point for Obama from the pre-debate sample. So here's the first indication that the "binders" debate is binding in our direction.
Zogby managed a pretty good sample for the poll ending on Tuesday - 828 "likely" voters - though it tends, like many, to skew somewhat heavily Republican. The breakdown from Zogby is 36 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican and 28 percent Independent. The Florida Division of Elections has voter registrations breaking down 41 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican and 21 percent Independent (http://election.dos.state.fl.us/...). Since the poll is a likely voter sample, this means that the pollsters may be hearing that there are more Democrats not likely to turn out than Republicans or Independents, so GOTV efforts may be critical to building margin for Florida. Otherwise the sample looks fairly balanced, so these are probably pretty good numbers.
More below the squiggly thang...
A three to four point lead is four to five points better than the Gravis Marketing poll of Florida from Monday that had Romney ahead by one point. Zogby gathered its 3-point sample Sunday through Tuesday, during Romney's gradual nationwide decline in polls. So excluding some possible trailing interviews after the debates - not likely - this yet again seems to show that Romney was already in trouble in swing states that had buoyed his hopes after the first debate, and that the second debate is going to have a mounting impact in Florida.
The attitudinal questions indicate that it's still a very close race, however, with men providing much of Romney's support, whereas women are Obama's key strength. However, amongst women, only 46 percent were favoring Obama's re-election, versus 42 percent feeling he should go. That means that there were about 12 percent of women undecided on Obama deserving re-election, perhaps wanting a more strong showing from him that stated his case. Given what Obama accomplished in the second debate, this may be a key metric to watch in post-debate polls.
An article published by NewsMax on the tracking poll on the four-point Wednesday numbers cites Obama loss of support amongst both women and union households, which again underscores the "will he fight for us" factor that is likely continuing fallout from the first debate, and a factor that may turn around significantly, especially given the "binders" meme and Romney's seeming cluelessness on any workers below the board suite. Let's see how those attitudes wash out in the shift of the tracking sample day by day.
Time will tell on this state, but given that some of Obama's key weaknesses in Florida seem to have been targeted well by his performance in the debate, perhaps this 3-4 point edge from Zogby's tracking poll is the start of something good. If a few more union households come around and a few more women get off their hands and Democrat turnout is good, this is very likely a blue state for Obama, voter caging and polling chicanery notwithstanding.