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While scanning the DK and SSP archives, I found a whopping 29 maps of Texas. Among them were plenty of gerrymanders for both parties, as well as racially-based and "court-drawn" maps. The prizes for most extreme gerrymanders go to Warning Crazy (36-0 GOP map),  TXMichael and Andrew (possible 22-14 maps) and the most beautiful map being wwmiv's. Not seeing anything crazy enough, I went for broke, abandoning legal considerations to create as many winnable districts as possible. Thus, my only considerations were partisan performance, contiguity and +/- 1000 variation.

What I wound up with were 24 Obama districts, 23 of which were 53.8%+, thus at least D+0.9. I also have 51% and 46% Obama districts in rural east Texas plus Waco that I think both Max Sandlin and Jim Turner could win if they ran (they're still average Congressional age). So we could potentially dominate the delegation 25-11, though many seats are shaky. The 17 non-DFW/East TX districts are 55.5%+. This map is so scrambled that I won't bother relating seats to incumbents. I'll note that it is theoretically possible to make one more seat competitive in DFW by splitting Frisco, McKinney, Allen and the rest of Plano, but it would make six 53-54% seats into seven 50-51% seats. That doesn't seem like a good trade to me.

Also note: Dem average is of all (non-competitive) Prez and Gov races from 2002-2010. There is also a 19.8% Obama district, or R+33!

On to the maps!

The state:
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The state in winnable/non-winnable:
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Northeast Texas:
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Eastern border to Austin:
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Houston and San Antonio:
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Everywhere else:
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Poll

How many DFW districts would go Dem in a neutral election?

4%1 votes
27%6 votes
18%4 votes
13%3 votes
18%4 votes
13%3 votes

| 22 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

    by GoUBears on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 11:42:01 PM PDT

  •  TX will go blue in a decade. GA & SC too. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn

    AZ this year!!!

    O 343 EVs

    Electoral Supremacy on the way

  •  What a mess! :) (0+ / 0-)

    I like Democratic messes!

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.00, -3.54, I finally got a chance to do something my parents have done for years- vote against Tommy Thompson!!!! Tammy Baldwin for US Senate!!!!!

    by WisJohn on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 07:05:24 AM PDT

  •  How many of these do you think would fall (0+ / 0-)

    in a bad year?

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.00, -3.54, I finally got a chance to do something my parents have done for years- vote against Tommy Thompson!!!! Tammy Baldwin for US Senate!!!!!

    by WisJohn on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 07:06:13 AM PDT

    •  All of them (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      I almost guarantee that Bush won every district here in the state of Texas in both runs.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 11:14:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Mathematically it is likely Kerry won at least 8 (0+ / 0-)

        At least by the logic of removing Obama's performance from the average, and given that among the four other races included in the average, Kerry's share of the two-party vote was 38.5% and the average of Sanchez, Bell and White's two-part share was 42.5%, resulting in an average of 41.5%, it is likely that Kerry at least won in 16, 20, 21, 23-26 and 34. By this same logic, it is likely that the average of the gubernatorial nominees also won in 1, 13, 18, 19, 27-29 and 33 as well. It is also likely that White received at least 48% in 24 districts, the only other potentially competitive seat being the 4th, where Obama massively overperformed. These statements are by no means certain, but they are the best estimates possible outside of matching the other races' precinct results.

        ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

        by GoUBears on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 11:59:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Actually, slightly wrong on White's numbers (0+ / 0-)

          It is actually likely the average gov performance in 1, 18 and 19 was 48-49% and White's performance in 2, 3, 5, 30 and 31 was 46-47%, not 48%+.

          ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

          by GoUBears on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 12:06:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Even in red years (0+ / 0-)

        I don't think we'd lose the 75+% Hispanic districts.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Sat Oct 20, 2012 at 01:38:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Never thought I'd see a map (0+ / 0-)

    putting Amarillo and Lubbock in a Dem district.

    Bravo.

    •  There are some minority precincts in both (0+ / 0-)

      so not too unusual, I almost put Lubbock in one of my Dem districts in my Doubling map.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Oct 20, 2012 at 01:38:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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