I've been going through the more detailed data available online for the just-released poll from NBC and The Wall Street Journal on the Presidential race in Wisconsin, and it looks like reasonably good data with mostly good news for Obama and Democrats. In a nutshell, overwhelmingly people have already made up their minds and a whopping 34 percent have already voted and another 11 percent plan either to vote early or via absentee ballot. However, there are some details that raise some flags about what the data really represents that are worth considering.
The data file (PDF)
More after Mr. Orangey Squiggle-thing below...
Here's the thing: the sample is heavily skewed towards 60+ voters. October 2012 voter registration data from the State of Wisconsin indicates that about 21 percent of registered voters are 60 and older. By contrast, the NBC/WSJ sample has 35 percent of its respondents in that age bracket - 66 percent more than the actual registrants. So everything that we're looking at in these numbers must first leverage off of that key fact. It may explain in part why there are so few differences in the results in this poll from the same instrument fielded in September - and why there are so few undecideds in the sample.
The data indicates that 95 percent of the likely voters in the sample had made up their minds about who they were voting for before the debates. I am not saying that everyone 60+ is set in their ways, but clearly a more mature sample underplays likely switchers. Made-up-my-mindedness is also indicated by the mere one percent of likely voters and two percent of registered voters who might change their mind on their choice between now and the election.
However, another wrinkle in the sample would seem to indicate that if people are already set for who they're voting for, it has nothing to do with party affiliation. Independents in the poll made up 37 percent of the respondents, Democrats 31 percent and Republicans 30 percent (1 percent Other). The State of Wisconsin doesn't release data on registrations on party lines, so it's not possible to corroborate this aspect of the sample with actual registrants. The other demographics seem to be fairly nominal, overall, reflecting typical populations.
So what does this add up to? It means that unless a mob of highly motivated young Republicans march to the polls at the last minute, Wisconsin is probably already in the bag for Obama, with his margin of victory just waiting to be counted. Given that Wisconsin under Governor Scott Walker has treated student voters like a contagious disease, that's probably not going to happen, unless they've been particularly adept at throwing out Democratic ones selectively (you never know). The Walker regime also calls into question what will happen with all of those thoughtfully pre-cast ballots. As much as GOTV efforts will be important in Wisconsin, preserving ballot integrity will be at least as important.
Barring excessive ballot box shenanigans, it seems as if this is one state where more effort can be put into funding Congressional races than the Presidential race. While anything can happen between now and election day, it seems as if we need to pay more attention to funding House races nationwide and to make sure that the coattails for Obama that are currently hidden in mounds of cruddy nationwide polling can be lengthened as soon as possible. We need a Democratic majority in the House to make a White House win worth it.