as appearing in a memo from Jeremy Bird, National Field Director for the Obama campaign, that is being widely distributed via a tweet from Ben LaBolt
All national polling organizations who have surveyed preference of early voters - including Rasmussen - find a significant lead for Obama, ranging from +19 in SurveyUSa to +52 for PPP
Data on new registrants in 2012 include that 81% of those registering this yea are "either female, younger than 30, or African-American or Latino – all demographics that
strongly favor President Obama." 64% of these live in counties that Obama carried four years ago.
55% of the requests for early votes are females, up from 52% four years ago. There is a 55,636 advantage in requests from precincts won by Obama in 2004 versus those won by McCain.
Ohio does not have registration by party. But there is this interesting set of observations from the memo:
Because Republicans had a competitive primary this year and Democrats did not, as Professor McDonald points out, Republicans have a 460,000-person edge this year in past primary voters –or what Romney’s campaign is disingenuously referring to as voters registered as Republicans.
Despite our smaller numbers, however, Democratic primary voters are outvoting Republican primary voters by a wide margin across the state. A greater percentage of Democratic primary voters than Republican primary voters have requested a ballot, have returned a mail ballot and have voted in person. Altogether, 145,880 Democratic primary voters have cast ballots, 28,013 more than Republican primary voters.
We know from the internals of the NBC polls in IA and WI that Obama has a huge advantage in those states in early voting. We are seeing a similar pattern in OH. And all indications from NC yesterday is that the long lines were a product of Democratic turnout. Obama is banking votes in his 3 Midwestern firewall states at a rate that makes clear why Republicans like OH Secretary of State Husted are trying to kill early voting, because early voting is killing Romney.
Think positively.
If you can, vote early, and help others to as well.