I recently got an email from a friend discussing how a certain Democratic Senator has rather large investments in a solar panel manufacturer in Korea. While there was no political point being made, I took it as political in the sense that so many out there have given up on technological leadership in the U.S. "we dont make it here anymore..." and "we have already lost the solar industry" are the most common refrains out there among funders, investors, and scientists working the the U.S. solar research and development field. It has become a given that China or Korea will manufacture all solar, most of the wind, and the geothermal equipment that is used worldwide.
While this may be the case, I would argue that it doest have to be. Perhaps we have lost the faith in ourselves to see innovation around the corner. Maybe we would just prefer to sit back and subcontract science engineering and innovation out to china or to india? This election will have a lot to do with this "mood." Please follow me...
There are many countries that have used currency and market manipulation to rush headlong into the Silicon technology of yesterday. However, as the existence of feed-in tariffs, and heavy government subsidies to industry have shown, this approach is underpowered and overpriced for the market. Sure, it is the best out there, for now, but to be competitive it must rely on incremental technology improvements as well as adjustments to the petrochemical markets to make it viable.
It should be recognized that there are many alternative approaches that are on laboratory benchtops now. Many of these hold amazing promise, but we know so little about them generally. To get to the point of 75% of maximum efficiency possible - as we are with Si, we will need to know the science of these alternatives at least to a degree that approaches that of Si. But this took enormous investment, and loads of time. New optical systems, new absorbers, new architectures must all be a part of significant patience and funding if we are to create technologies that can truly reach beyond Si. And reach beyond Si we must if solar is to be viable in the market.
The U.S. has traditionally had tremendous faith in its ability to innovate itself out of a hole. Many argue that the cycles of innovation can be directly tied to the increasing wealth of our nation even though so much of this technology is eventually offshored. It is the next innovation, the next discovery and the next paradigm shift that keeps us afloat as a technological economy. And make no mistake about it, the U.S. is still the leading engine of this innnovation. Compared to Europe or Asia aggregate, the U.S. continues to have the greatest number of statups in the energy sectors BASED ON NOVEL TECHNOLOGIES. The Solyndras if you will. The point is that we did use to understand that many of these would fail. And, as in Silicon valley, it was quite OK to fail. This was the means of vetting market value of technologies that seemed promising. Indeed, investment in such adventures was seen as risky with high reward for your risk should it pay off. Risky for government investment, risky for private investment, but with huge benefits to both should there be a breakthrough.
Alas, today this faith in enterprise may be fading away. With billions sitting untapped in corporate coffers, and with billions more untapped in tax revenues, we have convinced ourselves that we are poor and that only China can do it. The trouble is that China will not do it. Much of the technology we are being sold is from us! And while there is some innovation in the chinese system, it is small compared to what used to exist here. This is simply because we used market based approaches to innovation, not centralized control. Best ideas were vetted two fold, first by science through the national science foundation and the various DOE and DoD programs, then through an investment system that seeks out best manufacturing practices. Notice here that I did NOT say large corporations. Indeed since the loss of IBM and Bell labs, little technological innovation has been seen in private only sectors. This is of course due to the continuing influence of capitalistic forces that focus solely on short term monetary flow as opposed to longer term product development and placement. So while the bright spot in all of this may be IT where industry driven innovation still flourishes, the companies I have mentioned above, in the energy sector, are primarily funded through government backed grants and tax incentives. Since this is public money we have had the habit of keeping it as unbiased toward set solutions as possible, leading to a true marketplace of funding sources and approaches. This in turn, has assured us of the broadest possible set of technology solutions to choose from.
BUT, without public money and trust, these programs are being starved. The ongoing battle from the right is to turn over the national treasury to those same energy conglomerates that have decided what the solutions are before they look. Seeing feedstock into potentially failing enterprises as wasteful, the argument is that the U.S. doesnt need this type of intellectualism. In fact, we cant afford it.
One look at the NASA space program would tend to disagree with this assessment. In the time leading up to the moon landing, dozens of new PhD programs were established, hundreds of small companies to manufacture space suits, tang, etc. Research consortia that brought small industry and universities together were established in each state. And hundreds of thousands of jobs were created generating revenue for the treasury. We engaged in nation building on the same scale as that of Iraq, only that time it was the U.S. that we sought to build.
Energy independence and technological innovation for sustainability is just as big of a challenge. It is a challenge that the U.S. has uniquely filled in the past. But as we are faced with the decision to turn our backs on this need, and just let china or korea do it, we are wavering. We lack faith in ourselves. We want to turn over our destiny to the robber barons of the past and deny our own accomplishments in working together.
The innovative capacity is still there. The scientists and engineers are still among the best. And our capacity for realizing remarkable outcomes is still intact, though not for much longer if we are not very careful.
So I too encourage employers to let their employees know exactly where the public dollar is being used to help their enterprise. If you are working for one of the 74% of the small businesses that comprise U.S. industry, let your people know that if the mega-conglomerates take the white house, they will suffer. From the store front diner to the space suit manufacturer, collectivism won WWII, took us to the moon, provided power for the country and linked us together with mass transportation. It has kept us wealthy as a nation, though it left some of us in the shadows. Now is not the time to doubt you neighbor or yourself. Now is the time to lift you neighbor up so that no one is left in the shadows. And maybe we can get back to the business of innovation and wealth generation as opposed to selling used and disproven economic ideologies.
Our greatest challenges have always been met together.