Monday night's debate is the rubber game of the match: Romney bullied his way to a win in the first debate (with plenty of "help" from Obama), while Obama spanked Romney so hard in the Town Hall, Tagg Romney claims he came quite close to committing a felony (and should have earned him a stern talking-to from Secret Service, whether he took a swing at POTUS or not). These are serious issues we're talking about on Monday night: It's all foreign policy -- which not only means Iran (and the maybe-yes-maybe-no negotiations we've heard about), Syria, Libya, and China are on the menu, but climate change and energy independence should be on the menu!
If the polls and the pundits are to be believed, either Obama got no bounce from Tuesday, or he brought the race back to par. This is not sports, so the debate shouldn't be seen as a tie-breaker, but that's how it's going to be played.
So how does Obama handle it: Go All In, or Just Don't Lose?
Let's talk about it on the other side of the socialist tangerine beignet.
When I say Go All In, I'm talking about taking an aggressive stand on the way foreign policy has been conducted over the last four years... and not just the part about Osama bin Laden's new gig as fish food. We saw that same kind of performance Tuesday night when Obama came out swinging -- calling out Romney as a liar (or as close as he's going to come), attacking the invisible fantasy math in Romney's tax plan, and vigorously defending his administration's handling of the embassy attacks. Romney was visibly flustered (and, in some cases, angered) when presented with this strategy, and he was losing long before Candy Crowley fact-checked him in real time. That night, Mitt Romney showed what we all knew: He is not ready for prime time, let alone the presidency. If Obama goes in just as strong, just as relentless, and just as demanding of answers from a man who couldn't give you the correct time if he was standing next to Big Ben, he could seal this up Monday night.
But here's the logic for the "Just Don't Lose" strategy: First impressions matter, but last impressions can lose you elections. It was in the last debate that Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter held in 1976 that Ford said he did not "believe that the Poles consider themselves dominated by the Soviet Union". I watched that debate, and Carter's smiling reaction said it all: "I just won this." Now, Obama definitely brought his "A" game to Hofstra Tuesday night, giving the chattering class no major quotes that they could turn into a convenient bite-sized pretzel. But with all the confusion surrounding Libya, the various perceptions on administration responses to the attacks, and that CIA report Darrell Issa is waving around like (All together now...) a smoking gun, Romney's got a fair amount of ammunition he can use to mask the fact that he is well nigh useless when it comes to foreign policy. One gaffe from Obama -- and I mean a big, hairy, real gaffe, not the manufactured ones he's been dealing with -- and we're back to hand-wringing time.
I know which strategy I want to see: I want Obama to Go All In.
Is it risky? No question about it. It's highly doubtful Bob Schieffer will challenge Romney the way Candy Crowley did (or the way Martha Raddatz challenged Paul Ryan), which means Obama is on his own when it comes to calling bullshit on Mittens' talking points (i.e. lies). Just playing Rope-a-Dope and letting Romney punch himself out was a disastrous strategy in the first debate; going that same route will be twice as bad, and would (in my view) change the game irreparably, no matter how many funny speeches Obama gives on "Romnesia."
The President cannot expect Romney to make the kind of verbal errors he made last Tuesday, because when he's not confronted by a legitimate opponent and forced to think outside his comfort zone, Romney is very, very good in debate by all the current standards -- that is, he sticks to his talking points like a kitten sticks with its mama, and he "looks Presidential" while he's doing it. Obama needs to create those moments when Mittens doesn't look Presidential, as well as force Romney to defend his talking points, not just spout them unchallenged.
To my mind (and to blatantly steal from The West Wing), if we see Professor Obama Monday night, we've got problems. But if President Obama comes to the last debate of the last election he'll ever be a part of, and comes out with guns blazing and doesn't let up on Romney even once, I think it'll be a sight to see.
And I think he'll win it all.
Your thoughts?