I am very suspicious of ALL polling this year for one major reason. Obama leads just about all polls with RVs by 5 or more points. Yet he's tied when it comes to LVs.
THAT'S BULLSHIT!
Reason 1. There is no way 10 to 15% of Obama supporters are apathetic.
Reason 2. Obama's ground game has been working for 4 years identifying unlikely voters. Unless they are completely incompetent, their focus is getting these very people to the polls.
Reason 3. Minorities have watched this president get treated with disrespect and indignation for 4 years. Don't for a second think we're gonna let the vote be 80% white.
Reason 4. Likely voter models have always favored Rs, but a 5 or 6 point swing is unheard of.
Follow the RVs.
Vote!