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President Obama is holding on to a five-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Ohio, but that margin has been cut in half since September, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News poll.
The great news:
A gender gap persists: President Obama still has a double-digit advantage among women, 55 to 40 percent (down from a 60 to 35 percent lead in the September poll), while Romney leads with men.
Concerning:
Romney has made some inroads with independents; he now leads among this group by seven points, 49 to 42 percent. Romney had a one-point advantage among independents in September.
On Early voting:
Early or absentee voting has already begun in most states across the country. One in five Ohio likely voters in this poll say they have already cast their ballot, and the president leads Romney among this group 54 to 39 percent. Among likely voters who have yet to cast their ballot, the race is much closer: the president leads 49 to 47 percent.
Nate Silver on Quinnipiac Polling (link):
The most accurate surveys were those issued by Quinnipiac University, which missed the final margin between the candidates by 3.3 points, and which showed little overall bias.
Other polls this morning (link):
Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 43% (Angus Reid)
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Angus Reid)
Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Morning Call/Muhlenberg)
I hope the Governor spends money in Pennsylvania. Please, please spend money in Pennsylvania. Make the same mistake Senator McCain made and the result will be the same: early call for Pennsylvania on election night.

Link to Article
Link to 11-page survey

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