Let's take a look at the CBS News Polls' track record in just the recent presidential elections.
First, let's start with the year 2000.
Among the final polls going into election day in 2000, CBS was one of the only polls which showed Al Gore with a lead. IBD/TIPP, Gallup, ABC, and NBC all showed Bush ahead by 2-3 points in their final polls. The conventional wisdom had it that Bush was on his way to victory and that the election itself was merely a formality.
The Harris poll, on the other hand, showed the race tied at 47% each. The Reuters/Zogby poll showed Gore ahead 48% to 46%. But which poll was the most accurate? You guessed it, it was CBS, which showed Al Gore ahead by a single point, 45% to 44%.
In the year 2004, CBS was also extremely accurate. Their final poll showed Bush 49%, Kerry 47%. More accurate than Gallup, for instance, which showed Bush and Kerry tied at 49%.
In the 2008 election, the final CBS news poll had Obama ahead by 9 points, 51% to 42%. In the actual vote count, Obama bested McCain by just 7 points. Still this is considered a rather accurate prediction on the part of CBS News.
So CBS nailed the year 2000, they were off by one single point in 2004 (or one and a half points if you want to get technical) and they were off by 2 points in 2008.
Compare CBS to say, Gallup, which hasn't been nearly as accurate. In 2000, Gallup showed Bush ahead by two points in their final pre-election poll. And, just ten days before the election Gallup had shown Bush up by a whopping thirteen points! In 2004, as I pointed out, Gallup's final poll showed Bush and Kerry tied. And in 2008, Gallup's final poll put Obama up by 11. So as we can clearly see, the final CBS pre-election poll has been very accurate. Gallup? Not so much.
Now, I realize we still have two weeks until election day, but I just wanted to point out that the CBS News Poll has been very accurate in predicting the outcomes of presidential races.
Here is a link to a site which gives you the pre-election polls: http://pollingreport.com/...
The links to the different polls are at the top.