Skip to main content

Let's take a look at the CBS News Polls' track record in just the recent presidential elections.

First, let's start with the year 2000.

Among the final polls going into election day in 2000, CBS was one of the only polls which showed Al Gore with a lead.  IBD/TIPP, Gallup, ABC, and NBC all showed Bush ahead by 2-3 points in their final polls.  The conventional wisdom had it that Bush was on his way to victory and that the election itself was merely a formality.

The Harris poll, on the other hand, showed the race tied at 47% each.  The Reuters/Zogby poll showed Gore ahead 48% to 46%.  But which poll was the most accurate?  You guessed it, it was CBS, which showed Al Gore ahead by a single point, 45% to 44%.

In the year 2004, CBS was also extremely accurate.  Their final poll showed Bush 49%, Kerry 47%.  More accurate than Gallup, for instance, which showed Bush and Kerry tied at 49%.

In the 2008 election, the final CBS news poll had Obama ahead by 9 points, 51% to 42%.  In the actual vote count, Obama bested McCain by just 7 points.  Still this is considered a rather accurate prediction on the part of CBS News.  

So CBS nailed the year 2000, they were off by one single point in 2004 (or one and a half points if you want to get technical) and they were off by 2 points in 2008.  

Compare CBS to say, Gallup, which hasn't been nearly as accurate.  In 2000, Gallup showed Bush ahead by two points in their final pre-election poll.  And, just ten days before the election Gallup had shown Bush up by a whopping thirteen points!  In 2004, as I pointed out, Gallup's final poll showed Bush and Kerry tied.  And in 2008, Gallup's final poll put Obama up by 11.  So as we can clearly see, the final CBS pre-election poll has been very accurate.  Gallup?  Not so much.

Now, I realize we still have two weeks until election day, but I just wanted to point out that the CBS News Poll has been very accurate in predicting the outcomes of presidential races.

Here is a link to a site which gives you the pre-election polls:

The links to the different polls are at the top.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site