Skip to main content

I posted this comment yesterday and two posters asked me to diary.  I forgot that I often freak out.  Only when I don't remind myself of the things below the fold.  Growing up in Las Vegas I know these essential things:  Statistics, reliable numbers.  Proven math never goes wrong.  Billion dollar casinos don't exist because of stunts or dumb luck.

Pick any reason below the fold for a daily Obama Odds Google Search.  Nate has been steady and reliable.  

Yesterday I was goofing off before and after the debate waiting for the media to make stuff up.  I didn't get upset.  I've read the polls.  I know the Las Vegas odds for an Obama win. The final proof is the outright stunts.

Let me just establish this first.  Before, during, and after a Presidential Election.  Almost every election research is done.  Before Obama decided to announce his run for the Democratic nomination in 2008 he knew what he would have to do to have a chance at winning.  He would have to invest in polling.  He would need a good ground game.  He would have to invest.  On even the long shots.  We remember what happened and how it ended.

Neither party is wasting money.  The statistics and polling is proven at this level.  John McCain new he didn't stand a chance.  He picked a long shot moron hoping to pick up former female Clinton supporters voters.  He is still around, Palin did his dirty work.  "Pal around with terrorists."  They likely knew this after the betting odds were reviewed the day after Senator Clinton declared "Yes We Can."  We can even factor debate or campaign memes that may have some impact.  Remember this:

At some time I would have to post this for myself or other Kossacks when the media pulled some kind of stunt.

Considering the antics after Monday's debate and the reaction to stunts that would be perfectly reasonable to expect I posted this comment:

I went to UNLV.  Our statistics professors main income was writing casino and casino statistics programs.  In fact, the entire department did.  Twice a week I had to listen to not only math but economics geeks debate C++ code for some stat shit that you would never need, but can predict if Sex and the City 4 has a possibility of funding, and if so would it make a profit with the change of the average age of the female demographic who originally watched the show.

Anyway, when I started attending again I made sure to check the box for perfect attendance everyday.  And they made tons of money because the boxing match they were really trying to figure out did happen and the casinos made a ton of money based off the particular program.  Apparently this is how they forecast specific profits for specific events.  

The only statistics I know is from two unrelated freshman accounting classes.  

Imagine 7 overweight Nate Silvers taking about Baseball all day.  And all they have to do is change a few lines of code for the event.  They charge and take the same amount of time as if each program is individual.  It's tweaked.

Why would they send McCain up against the Clinton machine?  Internal polling doesn't lie.  Ratings and advertising is big business for the media and marketing every four years.  I doubt McCain ever has to fund raise again just because of his former nomination.

O'Reilly watchers, meet next spring's Sarah Palin replacement.  

Most Las Vegans already know this.  Las Vegas couldn't exist if we didn't have the numbers.  When Mike Tyson lost to Buster Douglas I was surprised and upset.  The bouncer at the club said that people were stupid to put down any money on the fight based on the actual odds, especially  Mike Tyson wasn't working out, partying, and pretty much slacked off.  The media didn't even bother to show up to watch Buster Douglas workout or prepare for the fight.

The gambling is based on statistics.  On actual proven facts.  Nate Silver factors in polls data facts.  And he hasn't sold out.  On NPR he admits that he prefers his baseball statistics over politics because politics prevents his baseball game attendance.

Here is just one that uses actual money.  Real money.  Even after the Chris Matthew's melted down after the first debate here is just one of many markets.

Obama, meanwhile, was selling for 66 cents Thursday, which means traders believe there is a 66 percent probability he will win the popular vote. As Romney’s price increased in recent weeks, Obama’s fell 19 percent from his high of 81.7 cents on Sept. 27.

Most of Romney’s recent gains came during a two-week period shortly before and after the first debate on Oct. 3. His price reached as high as 39.2 cents on Oct. 12 before settling back.

Meanwhile, on the Vote Share market, in which traders buy and sell contracts based on what percentage of the two party vote they think each candidate will receive, Obama was selling for 53.9 cents Thursday morning. That means traders believe Obama will receive 53.9 percent of the popular vote between the two candidates.

Romney was selling for 47.4 cents Thursday morning on the Vote Share market.

The hard right predicted Romney.
But investors flipped positions Sept. 11 and Romney has been the IEM’s most likely candidate ever since. He crossed 50 cents for the first time on Sept. 30 and stayed there, except for a few days in December when he dipped as low as 48 cents during Newt Gingrich’s brief ascent in public opinion polls, including those in Iowa.

His price continued to rise past 80 cents through a hard-fought Iowa caucus campaign that was seen as a win at first (until the discovery of lost ballots several days later pushed him into second place behind Santorum) and then a big win in New Hampshire. The contract dropped in mid-January and mid-February after a handful of solid primary performances by Santorum and Gingrich in South Carolina and other Southern states. But the price of Romney’s contract never fell below 68 cents during either dip, as traders didn’t give much credence to either of their campaigns.

Professional gambling is what is.  The casino knows how much they will profit before they give you your first free drink.  At this point we go in for the kill.  Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan is the best they can do.  One of the most blatant lairs that we have ever openly seen.  That's the strategy.  Stunts.

Donald Trump should have been asked how much he was willing to bet instead donate to the Republicans.  No tax write off there.

So we will be seeing stunts from now on.  We will be drawn in by Freepers if we let them:

This is what we are really dealing with.

We have to save them from themselves.  Nothing has changed in 2 years.  I haven't had to add one new photo to my album since 2010

We just need to do what we have to do.  Donate time and money if we can.  GOTV.  I In Red States, encourage a neighbor to vote straight Democratic because of down ticket races.

I live in conservative suburban Dallas.  Monday started early voting.  We got our phone call that day.  Emails about debate parties were on time, read, and forwarded.  We are going in the morning.

But here's how I know Obama and the DNC has it's act together.  Haven't voted in Las Vegas, Nevada since 2006.  I never received phone calls or emails because Nevada didn't matter.  Why try?  I originally registered as independent-no party affiliation.  I'm female.  I vote.  Not sure how they got my old phone number, but for whatever reason I got a call from Obama For America inviting me to the event that President would be holding the next night.  Would I like to attend.

I have no idea what company did the data mining that would come up with me.  As a DBA myself I would love to see how they put that together.  [On paper they were searching for longtime Clark County Residents that previously lived near the Uni, may have requested some sort of Spanish Language election material, voted, mailed or contacted an elections entity in a primarily Latin or African-American Area.  In this case you could really hit pay dirt.  Early voted in a previously majority business only area.  The business and property would have not paid taxes or been in foreclosure (I would mail or drop my ballot to the office closet to my work.  All those call centers are closed now.)

That costs money, and that's who I want to call.  Even Romney's Grandson wanted the opportunity to be charmed by Mr. Obama himself.  On paper Harry Reid should have been sending me texts mails with personal messages about how much weight I've lost.   Romney.  No Republican has bothered to call me or even knows that number.  I still get emails to my troll account when I signed up to Troll McCain's website.  Didn't have to bother, he the link for Freepers to come here.

Information is power.  If I were a pundit reading this I would hope this information is never reported.  Nevada has a huge early voting block.  I only ever early vote.  I could possibly be the Latino vote that is trending Romney.  I won't site a poll.  No one will call me on it anyway.  Fox News this is SOP.  And all media will do it.  Some truth will get through.  But there are millions to be made here.

And we can actually start looking forward to SNL for the next two weeks.  

Donate.  GOTV.  Expect antics.  Romney is the patsies who doesn't care about tomorrow, or anyone else.  He's dragging Ryan down with him because he has money.  He just wants to be the first Mormon President.  We tried that for eight years with the first former alcoholic CEO Harvard MBA rich kid.

Tomorrow I will be voting for Obama.  

Here's a useful tool for Trump's antics tomorrow:


Originally posted to Lava20 on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 10:28 PM PDT.

Also republished by The Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site