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How does Obama get to the 270 votes he needs in the Electoral College?

The states in the first group all have an over 90% chance of an Obama win, according to Nate tonight at fivethirtyeight.com and they add up to 237 electoral votes.

The states in the second group are all probable Obama wins according to Nate tonight and adding them to the first group brings us up to 303. If we take Colorado and Virginia away from the second group we would still have 281 electoral votes. Without CO and VA all the other states in the second group have at least a 66.5% chance of an Obama win today, according to Nate's new numbers.

The third group is a group of 1 right now. Florida still has a good chance. Winning there would bring us up to 332 electoral votes. I'm dreaming of a landslide mandate.

The following states all have an over 90% chance of going Obama as of tonight.
California – 55 Electoral Votes – Subtotal =  (55).
Connecticut - 7 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (62)
Delaware - 3 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (65)
District of Columbia – 3 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (68)
Hawaii – 4 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (72)
Illinois – 20 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (92)
Maine – 4 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (96)
Maryland – 10  Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (106)
Massachusetts – 11 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (117)
Michigan – 16 Electoral Votes – Subtotal =   (133)
Minnesota – 10  Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (143)
New Jersey – 14 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (157)
New Mexico – 5 Electoral Votes – Subtotal =   (162)
New York – 29 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (191)
Oregon - 7 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (198)
Pennsylvania – 20 Electoral Votes – Subtotal =   (218)
Rhode Island – 4 Electoral Votes – Subtotal =   (222)
Vermont – 3 Electoral Votes – Subtotal =  (225)
Washington – 12 Electoral Votes – Subtotal =  (237)

These 237 electoral votes are in the bag for Obama. All of them have at least a 96.3% of winning, according to Nate (except Pennsylvania that has a 92.6 chance as of tonight)

Group 2 wins would bring us to 303!!!

Colorado – 9 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (246) – 52.2 % of winning according to Nate as of tonight.
Iowa – 6 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (252) 66.5% of winning according to Nate as of tonight.
Nevada – 6 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal =   (258) 75.9 % of winning according to Nate as of tonight.
New Hampshire – 4 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal =   (262) 67.3% of winning according to Nate as of tonight.
Ohio – 18 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (280) 73.4% of winning according to Nate as of tonight.
Virginia - 13 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (293) 52.9% of winning according to Nate as of tonight.
Wisconsin – 10 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (303) 82.0 % of winning according to Nate as of tonight.

These states are all looking good for Obama. All of them have at least a 66.5% of winning, according to Nate tonight (except Colorado that has a 52.2 chance and Virginia that has a 52.9% chance, as of tonight) and would bring us up to 303 electoral votes. Take away Colorado and Virginia and we still have 281 electoral votes.


We can get to 332!!!!

Florida – 29 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (332) 32.4% of winning, according to Nate as of tonight.
I still have hope for Obama in Florida. Some of the Florida polls have it close. I don’t know what Nate sees to make it look so good for Romney.  If you look at the early voting, the strong Obama campaign organization there, the Hispanic vote and the final debate in Florida bounce, maybe we can bring Florida around, especially if we can GOTV there we will bring the total up to 332 electoral votes.

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