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with the details available in this PDF file.

The poll is of 12 swing states:  CO, FL IA, MN, NH,NM,  NV, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI

Those results show Obama leading 47-45 among the 12 states

The poll also used over-sampling for individual results for three states:

VA  47-47 down from a 3 point lead in Sept  Romney leads by 3 among independents

OH  46-44  down from a 4 point lead in Sept  26% say they have already voted, Obama holds a 26% lead among those, Romney leads among independents by 2

CO  47-46  down from a 3=point lead in Sept  Obama has a 6-point lead among early voters and independents are split

on economy:  Forty-four percent (44%) of voters said it would do better under Romney,
39% said better under Obama, and 13% said it doesn’t matter

you can read more at the link

Not so sure why Steve McMahon was so giddy about this.  It is middling news at best.

HOWEVER  poll sample is 11% black, and 7% Hispanic.  That MAY understate Obama's performance.  Don't know.   You can examine the crosstabs for yourself.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cany, Coolwateroverstones

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 11:45:13 AM PDT

  •  That OH early vote lead is something to be (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Aviate

    giddy about....

  •  I just don't get people who believe they will be (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eglantine

    better off economically under Romney given he has zippo for plans.

    There are not enough words to explain how perplexing this is.

    202-224-3121 to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them. "We're not perfect, but they're nuts."--Barney Frank 01/02/2012

    by cany on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 11:49:14 AM PDT

  •  I wouldn't put much on this poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    I always have thought that any poll this late in the cycle using a LV screen that has more than 5% outstanding/other/whatever is missing something or just playing to much with numbers.

    "WE PRACTICE SELECTIVE ANNIHILATION OF MAYORS AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS FOR EXAMPLE WE CREATE A VACUUM THEN WE FILL THAT VACUUM AS POPULAR WAR ADVANCES PEACE IS CLOSER" The Pentagon Papers

    by thegreatkramer on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 11:49:44 AM PDT

    •  interest in poll due to Steve McMahon (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ElizabethRegina1558

      who was making something of a big deal of it on tv last night.

      Looking at the results, I do not know why.

      Do not know if Nate Silver will include the three oversampled states - CO, OH, VA - in his calculations tonight or not

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 11:53:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  One thing about Nate (0+ / 0-)

        is he tend to throw everything at the wall and see what sticks.  The only polls i don't see in his site are pollsters i have never heard of.  But i get thoses on TPM.  MI is now a battle ground according to a pollster i never heard of  thats shows a 46 tie.

        "WE PRACTICE SELECTIVE ANNIHILATION OF MAYORS AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS FOR EXAMPLE WE CREATE A VACUUM THEN WE FILL THAT VACUUM AS POPULAR WAR ADVANCES PEACE IS CLOSER" The Pentagon Papers

        by thegreatkramer on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:11:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Progressives took the bait (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        chrismorgan

        and gave Purple Strategies, which have leaned heavily R all year, a ton of attention and hits. Some people never learn.

  •  not sure if the racial crosstabs make sense... (0+ / 0-)

    some of their twelve battlegrounds are very, very white, others not so much....

  •  Typo in your CO numbers?/ (0+ / 0-)

    Further, affiant sayeth not.

    by Gary Norton on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 11:54:45 AM PDT

  •  It's likely voter so (0+ / 0-)

    "Four seconds is the longest wait " -Sleater-Kinney

    by delphil on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 11:56:38 AM PDT

  •  Actually more good than bad news (4+ / 0-)

    A Republican-leaning pollster showing only 2-3 pt movement in Romney's direction from before the first debate. Confirms that whatever momentum he had after Denver has plateaued at best (for Romney) or started to recede.

    We have yet another Republican leaning robopoll that can't find a lead for Mittens in OH. Just confirms the solidity of Obama's lead there. It may not be huge (~O+3) but it is real and it is spectacular.

    In two other states that Romney absolutely cannot afford to lose, he leads in neither. And these are R-leaning polls conducted using an methodology that tends to favor Republicans.

    Trust me, I don't think Boston is popping champagne corks at these numbers. This is what a slow, grind-it-out, 3-yards-and-a cloud-of-dust Obama victory looks like....

  •  This is good news from a pollster whose results (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fou, chrismorgan

    Lean very Repub.

    •  sorry, but disagree (0+ / 0-)

      it shows movement in Romney's direction.  Now granted, it is compared to a month ago, and actually might mean movement to Obama since Monday's debate, but the narrative will be that it shows movement towards Romney.  That is NOT good news.

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:09:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, but Romney's still losing (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Aviate

        with under two weeks left.

        I'd agree with you if today's date was not 10/26/2012.  But with the election in less than two weeks, I'd take cold comfort in the fact that Romney's losing by less.

        Have you googled Romney today?

        by fou on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:12:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Tempered by the fact that he doesn't lead in any (0+ / 0-)

        I know the right loves the Mittmentum meme.

        It works (somewhat) because Nationally you can easily find a daily tracker with Rmoney leaning, or increasing his lead.

        The problem here is Romney doesn't lead. And he doesn't need just one of those states, he needs all three of them. If Obama wins two or more of those, it's game over for Romney.

        And in reality, there is very little statistical difference. It comes out to be O+1, R+1, which is negligible.

        When we were ahead, people at DailyKos said to fight like we were behind. When we were behind, people at DailyKos said to give up.

        by NoFortunateSon on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:15:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The Mittmentum crowd will say so (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fou

        The Nate Silvers, Sam Wangs & Simon Jackmans of the world will see what's really going on here & understand these numbers for what they are. All of Chuck Todd & David Brooks's flag waving won't change that.

        Movement towards Romney since Sept is old news. Everyone knows that happened and no one denies the race is closer now than it was a month ago. Expecting Obama to hold the same numbers as he had then in not realistic. The big question is how close are the states and how much movement was there, especially in the key toss-up states. The answer we're getting with increasing consistency from the state polls is "not close enough" for Romney, and not enough movement. And things aren't trending in his direction either. And time is almost up.

        Remember, a two weeks ago, R-leaning robopolls we giving Mittens decent-sized leads in CO & VA. We're seeing less and less of that.

  •  Who is Steve McMahon? (0+ / 0-)

    And why do we care what he thinks?

    Have you googled Romney today?

    by fou on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:09:16 PM PDT

    •  He has been a major democratic player (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      deanarms

      having had senior roles in 3 Presidential campaigns, and is someone who often appears on cable as a Democratic talking head

      his remarks on MS-NBC yesterday gave rise to all kinds of expectations, which may be why there were 3 diaries on this poll release within a few minutes of it going live

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:12:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He worked for Ted Kennedy. (0+ / 0-)

      'Nuff said.

      What's the difference between Palin and Cheney? Answer: lipstick!

      by Beauregard on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:21:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  TeacherKen: dates? could you post when they were (0+ / 0-)

    In the field.

    Was it all post-3rd Debate? Partially? Not at all?

    That matters.

    And yes, some movement foor Romney since September BUT
    Obama leading among LV's in all those battlegrounds with 12 days to go.

    Buck up!

  •  Much Ado About Relatively Little (0+ / 0-)

    1) With eleven days to go in the election, stasis will serve us just fine, thank you very much, and what I'm seeing overall is something better than stasis. The vast majority of battleground state polls are showing O in the lead, maintaining that lead in super-critical states like Ohio and Nevada, and recovering lost ground in nice-but-not-necessary states like NC, Florida and Virginia. From this p.o.v., this poll is good news.

    2) All that really matters is Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada. And we seem to be very strong (and staying strong) in all three states. Nate has us at 74% in Ohio and better than that in the other two.

    Say after me: All that really matters is Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada.

    It's not all good, but this is good.

  •  Ken: this is GOOD news. Purple has absolutely had (0+ / 0-)

    an R-lean this cycle (ie since they appeared); and more importantly, with this particular "oversampling" methodology they could say pretty much anything they wanted for LV in those three states.  I don't know if they're really measuring anything at all, but what they are reflecting in these numbers is the current state of "right-leaning-but-reality-based" CW.  Which is that OH is  getting away from Mitt, CO is leaning away, and VA is tied up.  As a grudgingly reality-based metric, I think we should take it.  

    And if the electorate of those states doesn't turn out to be 83% white, well that's just a bonus :-)

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