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If for example you looked at today's release of The Purple Poll of 12 swing states - which included NM, CO, NV and FL -  their sample included only 7% Latino voters.

I have been exploring the subject of the likely Latino vote, and that included an email exchange with Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions.  He points out that NALEO, the National Association of Latino Elected Officials, are expecting a Latino turnout of 12.2 million.

In 2008 the total presidential vote was about 131.5 million, so this would represent a Latino share of a bit over 9%.  Some argue that might be very low, but let us assume that it might be 10%, nationally, but of course it is more concentrated in some state than others.

Using this map from Latino Decision, I note the percentage it shows the shareof prospective Latino vote in swing and potential swing states, and if you click on the state you can see the % increase in Latino registration in the past 12 years:
ST  %      % Increase

AZ  20          72
CO  12          30
FL   17          66
IA    2           31
NV  15         117
NH   1           83
NC   3          117
OH   1           47
VA   2           76
WI   2           23

In an exceedingly close race, even with a low overall Latino share of voting, the increase of percent and how heavily it breaks for Obama could make a difference, for example, in NC  - and remember that NC has 1-step registration and voting (and WI has same-day registration).  

Normally the percentage of registered Latinos who vote is significantly lower than that of Whites, but that could change this year, especially in AZ, through things like "show me your papers" and because of the executive order implementing part of the Dream Act.

The Latino vote, especially with a Latino as the Democratic Senate nominee (although Carmona is Puerto Rican rather than Mexican in background) is one reason I think Arizona may, despite polling data, be in play.  It is why I think Nevada is done for the President, and why I think he should be favored in Colorado, and no worse than even in Florida.

If you push me, I would say I think Latino votes may hit 13 million or even 14 million,  Given that additional votes will break better than 2-1 for the President, I remain optimistic that the results in the electoral college will be more than sufficient.

What do you think?

THus in AZ, CO, FL and NV, the Hispanic vote is critical, and we know that it will break heavily to Obama, the main question being if it will turn out.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:29:49 PM PDT

  •  Latino vote will be critical in NC (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    teacherken, joedemocrat

    I know OFA has worked hard to get out the Latino vote(even our own MsSpentyouth had a meetup at her home) and the numbers are really close here. I know a lot of polls still show us likely red, but they did in 2008 as well.

    George W. Bush: the worst Republican president SO FAR.

    by Chun Yang on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:45:39 PM PDT

  •  the latino vote could also be decisive (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    teacherken, DeeDee001

    in a bunch of close house races in CA, NV, AZ and CO. if latinos turn out in a big way, control of the house could rest on it.

  •  The story of this race (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Avila

    Once the dust settles, and Obama is reelected, the story of his victory will be HISPANICS and WOMEN, along with an African American turnout as strong (or stronger) than that of 2008.

  •  I agree with you that (0+ / 0-)

    Nevada is not in play. I've given that state to Obama long ago.

    I've been watching what Nate Silver says, and since he doesn't have AZ as toss-up, then I believe it isn't.  

    Of course, there are election surprises now and then and I do hope AZ is one this year!!

    I've been very interested in the theory most pollsters don't give people the option to take the poll in Spanish  and that excludes  non English speaking Latinos. Some say that's why pollsters   got NV wrong in 2010. If I remember, Nate has said there's something to this theory, but he doesn't think its enough to make AZ in play. I wish I could link, but I've used up my free NYT 10 articles this month :(  If you aren't over yours, it was maybe a couple weeks ago.

    Thanks for all your interesting diaries. They are good reading! I'm going to be on pins and needles!  I get worried when I see national popular vote polls, but I keep remembering we use the electoral college and OH, WI, NV, IA, NH seem solid

    As a member of Courtesy Kos, I am dedicated to civility and respect for all kossacks, regardless of their opinions, affiliations, or cliques.

    by joedemocrat on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:47:45 PM PDT

    •  underestimating Latino vote worth 2-3% at most (0+ / 0-)

      but turnaround for Reid more like 8 points

      another good chunk of that was simply the superior ground organization Reid had and is still in place to help Obama

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 04:40:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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