I find it pretty amusing that the media keeps talking about the daily poll numbers, the early vote numbers, and how tight this election is going to be. Honestly there are a variety of reasons that the national poll numbers DO NOT matter. 1) Party affiliation, 2) Sample size, 3) Region, 4) The options, and 5) the method (cell v. landline). Whatever the reason, the national polls point one way, but polling in the battleground states point the other way.
One thing that no one wants to do is acknowledge that Obama and Romney are not the only candidates on the ballot, yet the majority of the polls only poll on asking about them. Well in September Gravis Marketing/Capital Correspondent polled the battleground state of Ohio Obama 45.2, Romney 44.3, and Undecided 10.4. The poll then added Libertarian Gary Johnson well Obama 44.5%, Romney 37.8%, Johnson 10.6%, Undecided 7.1%. Well Gary Johnson is not the only third party candidate one the ballot.
While I am not expecting that Gov. Johnson, or any of the other third party candidates are going to get a majority in any state, but their presence on the ballot cannot be taken for granted. In Southern Virginia, Virgil Goode a popular former Representative is expected to take some of the votes in the area of the state Romney is expecting huge wins.
Historically third party candidates receive a slim margin of the vote, in 2008 Ralph Nader, Bob Barr, and other candidates received 1.53% of the popular vote. In 2004 third party candidates received 1%. In 2000 they received 3.74%. In 1996 third party candidates took 10.04% of the popular vote.
With an election as close as the 2012 election, a third party candidate taking a couple thousand votes in a single battleground state could cause the race to turn in an unexpected manner. As the earlier poll mentioned Gov. Johnson having 10% in just Ohio, most of those votes coming from Romney, it has to be noted that he is the former Governor of New Mexico, a state Obama is expected to pick up easily, Johnson will probably receive a good number of votes there too.
Another aid to the third party candidates specifically Gov. Johnson is that he will most likely receive a lot of the Ron Paul devotees. The do not like Romney, and will not vote for Obama. During the Third party debate, Gov Johnson mentioned how Ron Paul was his idol and the audience erupted with applause. While he has no chance of winning a single electoral vote, he and the others will play a part in this election.
The major parties and the mainstream media keep downplaying the effects of the third party candidates even though Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus has called the third party candidates “Non-Factors” citing that Americans know how important this years election is. Well Mr. Priebus every Presidential election is equally important. If third party candidates were truly a “non-factor” then the Romney campaign would not have challenged Virgil Goode and Gary Johnsons ballot access in many states.
Simply put election day is going to be interesting, especially if the Northeast is without power because of the Hurricane coming next week.