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There's a lot to think about these days. I'm trying to stay safe from the impending Hurricane Sandy and my beloved San Francisco Giants are in the World Series! However, fear not, I still had time to pour over today's polls.

There seems to be a general consensus among the right-wingers on Twitter and elsewhere that this election is in the bag for Mitt Romney. The mainstream media has certainly picked up on this overconfidence. I guess they're looking at national averages that show Romney up by about 1 and concluding that they should be measuring drapes. It also helps that the polls that show Romney with his biggest leads nationally, like Rasmussen and Gallup, happen to be the polls that get the most attention.

This conservative crowing seems absolutely crazy to me. Today's polls confirmed that President Obama is holding very steady in the states that matter. I just don't see where Mitt Romney gets to 270 electoral votes. You don't have to believe me either. Nate Silver has Obama at 74% to win, and even InTrade still has him as a 60% favorite.

There was pretty much just noise among the national trackers today, though as Silver pointed out on Twitter, if you averaged the 8 daily trackers, Obama has a .2 lead, while Romney was up by that same margin yesterday. Moving to Obama today were Reuters-Ipsos (-1 to +1), ABC/WaPo (-3 to -1), and the RAND poll. Mitt got his 5 point lead back in the Gallup tracker, while Rasmussen (Romney +3) and IBD/TIPP (Obama +2) stayed the same.

State polls, again, offered a very encouraging picture. There were three Ohio polls today, all showing Obama leads of at least 2. The CNN/ORC poll showed Obama up 4 among likely voters and 7 among registered voters. Obama's lead in Ohio according to the RCP average is 2.3. With so many early votes banked, it will be especially hard for Mitt to make up this deficit. If he does not win Ohio, he would have to win Wisconsin, plus pretty much every other swing state. This is an incredibly tall task for him, and one that the mainstream political media (looking at you Politico!) doesn't seem to fully comprehend. Some of Obama's other positive state polls included a trio of Purple State surveys showing him up 2 in OH, 1 in CO and tied in Virginia. A Gravis Marketing Poll (a GOP-leaning firm) shows Obama up 4 in Iowa. These are all must-win states for Romney, and an Obama win in any of them pretty much shuts Mitt out of the White House.

Mitt did get a couple of decent state polls. A Sunshine State poll showed Romney up 5 in Florida (Rasmussen has the race at only one point!), and Gravis had Romney up 8 in North Carolina (though Civitas and PPP find the race to be a virtual tie there!).

The bottom line is that the battleground state map is getting more and more terrible for Romney, even if the political press won't recognize it. I'll also add that while there certainly is a decent chance for a popular vote/electoral vote split, I still don't see it happening. I lean towards the view that Obama probably leads by a point or so nationally, which is about what his lead would be if you averaged the polls and left out GOP-leaning Rasmussen and wacky Gallup.

Because today was an improvement over the status quo, I'll give it a 7.



How would you rate today's polls for President Obama?

0%1 votes
0%1 votes
2%3 votes
2%3 votes
7%11 votes
21%31 votes
32%47 votes
22%33 votes
6%9 votes
3%5 votes

| 144 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  well , you got it right today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Barnaby Tucker

    so i voted 6 instead just to bust your chops

  •  Every day that Romney doesn't (4+ / 0-)

    take a lead in the states he needs to win

    is a very good day.

    Time's running out on Willard.

  •  Couple comments (0+ / 0-)

    InTrade was gamed recently.  Sam Wang posted that one trader dropped $1250 on Romney to win, which totally skewed the market.  If you want to change a media dynamic it seems to be a cheap way to do it.  Thought about doing it myself ;).  

    I voted polls a 6 because some of the polls like Purple were polls that had shown Obama with a lead that has fallen in the last month so it's not all goodness, and because Nate insists that the polls of Virginia today that showed O marginally up were all polls with a Democratic house effect.  However these polls were certainly better than neutral.  Our chance to win was last repeated between Oct 8-9, about mid-way down the slide from Oct 4-13 (Oct 13 was Romney's peak).  We are also 1.5 percentage points more likely to win than we were on Sep 18, which was a local minimum for the President after the DNC uptick faded and the 47% video was about to kick in.  

    So, I like where we are, and I like that the trend is up.  PPP has a poll blitz coming and it will be interesting to see where they think we are.  Not IMO because they are "super accurate" but since we know they're not putting an artificial partisan weighting in place they are useful to compare to themselves to see trend.

    Finally - we only have about a week left of poll game-playing.  Meaning, Ras will take its finger off the scale late next week because they need their last polls of things to be "the most accurate."  So keep in mind if you see R+1 from Ras next week, it doesn't mean the same as R+1 last week.  R+1 last week you could translate to tie or O+1.  R+1 next week, may be the same house effect... or it may be legit.  You just don't know with them.

    Democrats *do* have a plan for Social Security - it's called Social Security. -- Ed Schultz

    by FredFred on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 06:55:37 PM PDT

  •  I love it that Gallup has passed on the chance to (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    rejoin the main island, and instead clambered back onto their seaweed-covered rock out in the water.   The media needs to get aggressive with them, make it clear that they'll be finished as a pollster if they miss the PV by 8 points.

    Unfortunately the media has no interest in that.  But still, they're going to get wet when the tide comes in.

  •  I give it an 8 (0+ / 0-)

    on the basis of the state polls.

    Out of 9 battlegrounds (based on where money is spent) Obama is ahead in 6, behind in 2, and virtually tied in 1.

    Romney does not seem to be gaining ground over the last week or so.

    Presidential Debates 2012: I. Big Bird; II. Binders; III. Bayonets.

    by InsultComicDog on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:05:28 PM PDT

  •  The thing is: win the national, win the election (0+ / 0-)

    It's only been otherwise twice in the nation's history, and 2000 was 'unique' even there to say the least.

    So if the Beltway media seems Romney ahead in Gallup and Raz, their faves, plus a couple of trackers, what else are they going to breathlessly report?

    Wingers inhabit their own planet, so we can safely laugh at them and their pronouncements.

    Now ... if by some chance Gallup is right, we're gonna lose, Nate or no Nate.

    He sees a miniscule chance of Romney winning the PV and losing the EV, so either the state polling is right or the national is.  Maybe the nationals will all come together, and if not, I hope to hell Gallup is wrong.  There's a whole lot of ODS out there.

    •  theres just no way (0+ / 0-)

      How could all these Ohio polls show Obama ahead? CNN showed the same margi as a few weeks ago. That's not a coincidence. And all the polls are showing this. These state polls have a big sample too. I just think some of these national polls have to be oversampling Oklahoma or something.

    •  History. (0+ / 0-)

      Four presidents took office without winning the popular vote.

      They were:

      Adams, 1824;

      Hayes, 1876;

      Harrison, 1888; and

      Bush, 2000.


      "The attack on the truth by war begins long before war starts and continues long after a war ends." -Julian Assange

      by Pierro Sraffa on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:51:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What I'm really nervous about is that the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Gallup Poll is being used to sway people over to their side. Like Undecideds and other voters. I still think Obama will win but the psychological warfare used by right-wingers is infuriating me. I want someone to call the media out on this bullshit.

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