I've noticed that early voting numbers are up in the first week of Colorado for Republicans, Democrats and Independents. If votes cast on Election Day decided the 2008 election, McCain would have won in Florida, Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa. But Obama won those states with an overwhelming early vote advantage, gained by mobilizing not only committed voters but also non-habitual voters with Internet ads, e-mail and text messages and person-to-person home visits and phone calls.
In Colorado, 78 percent of the votes were cast early.
First we must look at the total county votes of 2008 of 2,422,236 when Obama won the vote 1,288,633 to 1,073,629 for a basis in the surge of Democrats that took place in the second week of early voting in 2008. Denver, Boulder, Jefferson, Arapahoe, Broomfield and Adams comprised the Democratic majority vote in the Metro area, Pueblo County in southern Colorado and Larimer (Ft. Collins).
Douglas (suburban Denver next to C.S.), El Paso,Fremont,Teller(Colorado Springs) Mesa, Delta, Montrose (Grand Junction area) and Weld (Greeley) are the larger Republican counties.
Pitkin County is Aspen, Eagle is Vail, Summit is Breckenridge which are heavily Democratic Mountain Ski towns.
Below the fold is a comparison of 2008 1st week and 2012 1st week. Voting is up 626,097 for 2012 compared to 481,684 for 2008. Notice the Democratic counties were lagging at this point in 2008 also. I will call it the 2nd week Democratic surge.
The surge is coming!
So don't fret Kossacks. All the stoners have yet to find their way to the polls to legalize Marijuana next week to put us over the top. ( If they don't f***ing space it out!)
I hope you can all read the stats online. I can't. Get out your bifocals, try to follow along and I'll try to be brief.
The first week of early voting in 2008 saw Arapahoe, Jefferson, Larimer and Broomfield counties lagging in Democratic ballots cast compared to Republican ballots cast (see below). These are the bellweather Denver Metro counties that eventually surged and gave Obama a 35,000 edge in Arapahoe, a 27,000 edge in Jefferson, a 16,000 in Larimer and a 3,400 edge in Broomfield. (see above)
In 2008, after 4 days Arapahoe was up 1734 for the Repubs, Jefferson up 253 for the R's, Larimer was up 1719 for the R's and Broomfield was up 51 votes to the R side.
The totals in 2008 were 186,956 Republican and 184,475 Democrat, a difference of 2,500 in favor of Repubs. Independents were 108,248 for a total of 481,684 (See Below)
* The totals for 2008 were compiled through Thursday Oct. 23, 2008 (4 days). The totals for 2012 were released Friday Oct 26, 2012 ( 5 days). A one day difference that accounts for the 481,684 ballots in 2008 and the totals for 2012 at 626,097 ballots received. However, it is enough information for a relatively good comparison of the voting trends in the State.
The chart below is this year's 1st week early voting. The totals are 244,263 Republican and 225,850 Democrat, a difference of 18,413 in favor of Republicans. (probably all the Mormons going gaga) Independents are up too at 149,877.
An 18,413 difference is a 3% advantage for Republicans this year (including Indies in the total. Obama has a 51/43 lead with independents) compared with a 2,500 Republican advantage in 2008, or a .5% advantage in 2008.
This is not an insurmountable early number at 3 %. The record shows that Republicans lead the first week and Democrats blow out the second week.
This year Arapahoe has a 2458 (R) advantage, Jefferson has a 3696 (R) ballot advantage, Larimer has a 2453 (R) advantage and Broomfield has a 442 (R) advantage
Remember, these 4 bellweather counties surged and created an 82,000 (D) advantage in 2008 from a collective (R) advantage of 3757 in the first week 2008 . Their collective advantage is 9049 (R) this year at this stage of the game.
Denver currently has a 25,793 (D) advantage difference this year compared to a 14,162 (D) in 2008. El Paso has an 18,713 (R) advantage this year vs. a 12,159 advantage in 2008.
This horse race aint over yet.
We are part of the old Mexican and Spanish territories here and we'll all be voting Mañana, so stay tuned in.