Skip to main content

In this diary we will look at 2008 and 2012 registration and early voter reports.  We will then do worst case and best case scenarios to see just where the presidential race is in The Silver State.

From the Nevada SOS active registration list:

Year          Dem          Rep         NP/other     Total
2008          531,317     430,594   245,850      1,207,761
2012          526,986     436,799   293,836      1,257,621
                --------     --------  --------      ---------
Difference     -4,331       +6,205  +47,986         +49,860

In 2008, 234,934 people or 19.45% of registered voters voted early during the first week.

In 2012, 305,040 people or 24.26% of registered voters voted early during the first week.  

The difference is +70,106 voters or 4.8% of registered voters.

(NOTE:  Several small counties have not reported Thursday or Friday Numbers yet, so I extrapolated from available data and added 8,600 votes to reported totals.  I believe this to be a very good estimate.  In any event, it is small compared to the rest of the state)

Now , the 2012 early vote can be broken down by party and looks like this:

Dem          Rep         NP/other     Total
140,153     111,185   53,702        305,040

Additionally, we have some absentee mail in ballot information from the SOS office:

Dem          Rep         NP/other     Total
20,516       20,836    7,619          48,971

So, the total known vote after one week (including 8600 vote estimate) is:

Dem          Rep         NP/other     Total
160,669     132,021   61,321        354,011

This means over 28% of active registered voters have voted already

So, what is the state of the race?  In 2008 Obama beat McCain by 533,736 to 412,827, a difference of 120,909 votes.  Percentage wise it was 55.15% to 42.65% with the rest going to third party or "None of these candidates".  

Additionally, from 2008 exit polls ( we know that votes by party ID looked like this:

            Obama              McCain        No answer/other

Dem        93%                6%             1%
Rep         11%                88%           1%
NP           54%                41%           5%      

This is probably an absolute best case for 2012.  If we use these percentages with week one totals we come up with this:

Obama               Romney
197,058              156,953

This gives Obama a 40,105 vote lead.  

But, lets do a worst case scenario.  Lets assume  85% Democrats, 8% Rebublicans, and 40% of everybody else votes Obama

This gives us:

Obama               Romney
171,659              182,352

This would give Romney a 10,693 vote lead.  

Conclusion:  More people are registered to vote and are voting earlier than in 2008.  Also, more Democrats than Republicans are voting early.  This, it seems to me, argues against any enthusiasm gap In Nevada.  We are probably, but not certainly, winning.  If I had to bet, I would say we are about a 4 to 1 or 80% favorite to win.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site