The RAND poll today shows Democrat voter participation up from historical pattern by at least 3% since the Denver debate. It may sound comical to describe 3% as "skyrocketing." But for a leaden historical pattern such as this, that is a sea change.
The trend line over recent months has voter likelihood among Democrats up from 80% to 83% at a bare minimum. The 7% spike today is an exclamation point for this change. If this gets to 85% on Election Day, Obama gets a landslide and the Senate could end up with a 56- or 57-seat majority.
So what has caused this change? It is not a change to Obama. He is the same guy he was in 2004, 2007 and 2008.
Perception of Romney is what has changed.
After the first debate, working on his most blatant lies has been the steady tide of these recent weeks.
All of this is moving to the worse for Romney. Here is the "poaching" graph from RAND -- it shows voter changeovers. This has improved and then gone back in favor of Obama since October 20th:
That performances at the first debate, particularly, gave Romney's opposition 27 obvious, generally stupid lies to work on. We have enough ammunition to last through Election Day.
Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson on Romney: "Wacky nuts."
Personal items are also hurting him. A cult prophecy (big with Glenn Beck, not part of standard Mormon works) and that auto accident in France. It all adds on to a perception that there is something not quite right with Mitt Romney.
The lies are getting hit heavy. One lie after another.
Think Progress did the initial investigation. Now 501s are pounding it with emphasis on Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, and the other battleground states.
1) “[G]et us energy independent, North American energy independent.”
-- He promises to undo the Obama administration’s new fuel efficiency standards. Romney would cut oil consumption savings by 2 million barrels per day (for the target full implementation year, 2025.)
2) “I don’t have a $5 trillion tax cut.”
-- Tax Policy Center analysis of Romney’s proposal for a 20 percent across-the-board tax cut in all federal income tax rates, eliminating the Alternative Minimum Tax, eliminating the estate tax and other tax reductions, would reduce federal revenue $480 billion in 2015. This amounts to $5 trillion over the decade.
3) “My view is that we ought to provide tax relief to people in the middle class. But I’m not going to reduce the share of taxes paid by high-income people.”
-- There are not enough deductions in the tax code that primarily benefit rich people to make this work.
4) “My — my number-one principal is, there will be no tax cut that adds to the deficit. I want to underline that: no tax cut that adds to the deficit.”
-- Tax Policy Center: Romney’s plan can’t both exempt middle class families from tax cuts and remain revenue neutral. Arithmetic.
5) “I will not under any circumstances raise taxes on middle-income families. I will lower taxes on middle-income families. Now, you cite a study. There are six other studies that looked at the study you describe and say it’s completely wrong.”
-- The studies Romney cites conclude that Romney would have to raise taxes on the middle class if he were to keep his promise not to lose revenue with his tax rate reduction.
6) “I saw a study that came out today that said you’re going to raise taxes by $3,000 to $4,000 on middle-income families.”
-- A study from the American Enterprise Institute.
-- It actually found that the Obama administration’s policies — those contained directly in his budget — would reduce the share of taxes that go toward servicing the debt by $1,289.89 per taxpayer in the $100,000 to $200,000 range.
7) “And the reason is because small business pays that individual rate; 54 percent of America’s workers work in businesses that are taxed not at the corporate tax rate, but at the individual tax rate….97 percent of the businesses are not — not taxed at the 35 percent tax rate, they’re taxed at a lower rate. But those businesses that are in the last 3 percent of businesses happen to employ half — half of all the people who work in small business.”
-- Far less than half of the people affected by the expiration of the upper income tax cuts get any of their income at all from a small businesses. And those people could very well be receiving speaking fees or book royalties. It’s actually hard to find a small business who think that they will be hurt.
8) “Mr. President, all of the increase in natural gas and oil has happened on private land, not on government land. On government land, your administration has cut the number of permits and licenses in half.”
-- Oil production from federal lands is higher, not lower: Production from federal lands is up slightly in 2011 when compared to 2007. And the oil and gas industry is sitting on 7,000 approved permits to drill, that it hasn’t begun exploring or developing.
9) “The president’s put it in place as much public debt — almost as much debt held by the public as all prior presidents combined.”
-- This is not even close to being true. When Obama took office, the national debt stood at $10.626 trillion. Now the national debt is over $16 trillion. That $5.374 trillion increase is nowhere near as much debt as all the other presidents combined. Plus, the first $3 trillion was generated in direct response to the Great Recession bequeathed from the Bush Administration.
10) “That’s why the National Federation of Independent Businesses said your plan will kill 700,000 jobs. I don’t want to kill jobs in this environment.”
-- That study, produced by a right-wing advocacy organization, doesn’t analyze what Obama has actually proposed.
11) “What we do have right now is a setting where I’d like to bring money from overseas back to this country.”
-- Romney’s plan to shift the country to a territorial tax system would allow corporations to do business and make profits overseas without ever being taxed on it in the United States. This encourages American companies to invest abroad and could cost the country up to 800,000 jobs. 800,000 immediately and hundreds of thousands a year thereafter.
12) “I would like to take the Medicaid dollars that go to states and say to a state, you’re going to get what you got last year, plus inflation, plus 1 percent, and then you’re going to manage your care for your poor in the way you think best.”
-- Sending federal Medicaid funding to the states in the form of a block grant would significantly reduce federal spending for Medicaid because the grant would not keep up with projected health care costs. CBO estimate: “35 percent lower in 2022 and 49 percent lower in 2030 than current projected federal spending.”
13) “I want to take that $716 billion you’ve cut and put it back into Medicare…. But the idea of cutting $716 billion from Medicare to be able to balance the additional cost of Obamacare is, in my opinion, a mistake."
-- In actuality, that $716 billion reduces over-payments to insurance companies under Medicare Advantage. Paul Ryan’s budget plan keeps those same cuts, but directs them toward tax cuts for the rich and deficit reduction.
14) “What I support is no change for current retirees and near-retirees to Medicare.”
-- Except: 1) by repealing Obamacare, 16 million seniors stop receiving preventive benefits without deductibles/co-pays and are saving $3.9 billion on prescription drugs, 2) “premium support” will increase premiums for existing beneficiaries as private insurers lure healthier seniors out of the traditional Medicare program, 3) Romney/Ryan would also lower Medicaid spending significantly beginning 2013.
15) “Number two is for people coming along that are young, what I do to make sure that we can keep Medicare in place for them is to allow them either to choose the current Medicare program or a private plan. Their choice. They get to choose — and they’ll have at least two plans that will be entirely at no cost to them.”
-- The Medicare program changes for everyone, even people who choose to remain in the traditional fee-for-service. But that amount will not keep up with health care costs.
16) “And, by the way the idea came not even from Paul Ryan or — or Senator Wyden, who’s the co-author of the bill with — with Paul Ryan in the Senate, but also it came from Bill — Bill Clinton’s chief of staff.”
-- Bill Clinton and his commission voted down these changes to the Medicare program.
17) “Well, I would repeal and replace (regulations.) We’re not going to get rid of all regulation. You have to have regulation. And there are some parts of Dodd-Frank that make all the sense in the world.”
-- Romney has previously called for full repeal of Dodd-Frank, a law whose specific purpose is to regulate banks. MF Global used customer funds to pay for its own trading losses and JPM Chase just blew away $7-billion. The financial industry isn’t responsible enough to protect consumers without regulation.
18) “But I wouldn’t designate five banks as too big to fail and give them a blank check. That’s one of the unintended consequences of Dodd-Frank… We need to get rid of that provision because it’s killing regional and small banks. They’re getting hurt.”
-- The law merely says that the biggest, systemically risky banks need to abide by more stringent regulations. If those banks fail, they will be unwound by a new process that protects taxpayers from having to pony up for a bailout.
19) “And, unfortunately, when — when — when you look at Obamacare, the Congressional Budget Office has said it will cost $2,500 a year more than traditional insurance. So it’s adding to cost.”
-- Obamacare will actually provide millions of families with tax credits to make health care more affordable.
20) “[A.C.A.] puts in place an unelected board that’s going to tell people ultimately what kind of treatments they can have. I don’t like that idea.”
-- The Board, or IPAB is tasked with making binding recommendations to Congress for lowering health care spending, should Medicare costs exceed a target growth rate. Congress can accept the savings proposal or implement its own ideas through a super majority. Relying on health care experts rather than politicians to control health care costs has previously attracted bipartisan support including Paul Ryan.
21) “Right now, the CBO says up to 20 million people will lose their insurance as Obamacare goes into effect next year. And likewise, a study by McKinsey and Company of American businesses said 30 percent of them are anticipating dropping people from coverage.”
-- The Affordable Care Act would actually expand health care coverage to 30 million Americans. According to CBO director Douglas Elmendorf, 3 million or less people would leave employer-sponsored health insurance coverage and go over to "pool" coverage.
22) “I like the way we did it [health care] in Massachusetts…What were some differences? We didn’t raise taxes.”
-- Romney raised fees, which many experts call "use taxes." The federal government funded almost half of RomneyCare changes.
23) “It’s why Republicans said, do not do this, and the Republicans had — had the plan. They put a plan out. They put out a plan, a bipartisan plan. It was swept aside.”
-- The Affordable Care Act incorporates many Republican ideas including the individual mandate, state-based health care exchanges, high-risk insurance pools, and modified provisions that allow insurers to sell policies in multiple states.
24) “Preexisting conditions are covered under my plan.”
-- Only for people who are continuously insured. People who are currently uninsured are out of luck.
25) “In one year, you provided $90 billion in breaks to the green energy world. Now, I like green energy as well, but that’s about 50 years’ worth of what oil and gas receives.”
-- The $90 billion was given out over several years and included loans, loan guarantees and grants through the American Recovery Act. $23 billion of the $90 billion was for “clean coal,” energy-efficiency upgrades, updating the electricity grid and environmental clean-up, largely for old nuclear weapons sites.”
26) “I think about half of [the green firms Obama invested in], of the ones have been invested in have gone out of business. A number of them happened to be owned by people who were contributors to your campaigns.”
-- As of late last year, only “three out of the 26 recipients of 1705 loan guarantees have filed for bankruptcy, with losses estimated at just over $600 million.” Two of these were driven out of business by Chinese investments totaling $60-billion for their competition.
27) “If the president’s reelected you’ll see dramatic cuts to our military.”
-- Romney is referring to the "sequester" congressional budget process, which his running mate Paul Ryan supported. Obama opposes the military cuts.
Takes time to pin the tail on a Liar Donkey.
When voters have seen three or four of these lies busted, they start to question everything Romney says.
Romney is also somewhat the oddball when it comes to religion. That is not a reference to Mormon doctrine, per se.
-- A lot of teenagers want to be president. Romney was saying that he was going to "fulfill prophecy" and become a theocratic President of the United States when he was in prep school. That refers to Joseph Smith's "White Horse Prophecy" which is outside the approved Mormon canon. Smith's 1832 Prophecy borrows its imagery from Chapter 6 of The Revelation, where the Rider on a White Horse, the conqueror, is the first of Satan's Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
-- Opponents to Romney inside LDS have been bullied steadily. Threats of excommunication included.
Smith was not even arguably a competent student of the bible. The hero of this Prophecy is his copy over from the final Christian Anti-Christ.
The Revelation, Ch. 6, V. 2: And I saw, and behold a white horse: and he that sat on him had a bow; and a crown was given unto him: and he went forth conquering, and to conquer.
There is one conqueror in The Revelation. This is the final Anti-Christ. The one who gets 42 months (as earlier, in the Book of Daniel) to lay waste to the earth, the Great Tribulation.
Still want to vote for this guy Romney? Then take a minute with this:
Mitt Romney's Driving Killed Leola Anderson. His Cover-Up Tale is Proved Dishonest
8,500 social media SHAREs. 2,400 Likes. More to come.
How's about Romney as a man? Lying all the time ??? Being more comfortable lying than telling truth?
You betcha. Poaching votes in Florida and Virginia and North Carolina is going apace. We will know more about Colorado and Iowa by Monday.