Note: The "Romney will lead some polls" argument is from Cohn at TNR.
Short diary, but I want to get it out here because it might surprise some of us, and no doubt Republicans will be boasting about it next week. I'll have a few thoughts below the fold, but the argument in the title of this diary is from Nate Cohn at the New Republic, who is preempting what he predicts will be a premature celebration on the GOP side and saying that in a close race, based on statistics alone, there'll be a stray poll or two showing Romney in the lead:
What’s most striking is the consistency of Obama’s advantage. Even though three relatively Romney-friendly surveys showed Obama falling behind by 1 point after the first presidential debate, only one partisan poll has shown Romney leading since October 10—and two of the initial three surveys to show Romney ahead have since shown Obama retaking the lead. I suspect that level of consistency won’t last through Election Day, since most averages show Obama ahead by 2 or 2.5 points in Ohio (I’d actually peg it at just 1.9, since I include partisan surveys).
As a matter of probability, at least a few polls should show Romney ahead in such a close race. Of course, when that poll comes, I’m sure a wave of Democratic panic and Republican euphoria will overtake Twitter, so let’s just establish in advanced that such a result should be expected. Start getting excited or concerned once the polls start showing movement that can be distinguished from static.
Basically I'm not worried about Ohio, in fact I think even Iowa and NH are more "scary" than Ohio.
OFA and Priorities did a magnificent job with the early ad-blitz, Romney's just not moving numbers there (but again, remember Romney and the right-wing commenteriat WILL erupt in 'victory' next week when that one poll shows Romney tied or leading by 1-2).
They've also done a masterful job getting in the early vote. The more early votes in the bank, the less the polling figure matters.
I think the election is now about seeing if we can steal NC, and also trying to pick up one of FL or VA.
In fact I'd go as far and say that any state Obama is 2% within Romney (even if it's under) in the averages, then I predict Democrats will win because of turnout. Let them keep saying 2008 turnout is impossible. What? After all this rape, self-deportation, Sununu, etc stuff? We'll see.
Exit Question: What's up with Romney's media blackout? Yes I know he doesn't want to talk "rape" but what kind of candidate just dissappears from the public at this home stretch? Bizarre.