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This morning's Baltimore Sun headlined the results of its latest poll on the referendums on marriage equality and the Dream Act.  Link is here.

On marriage equality, 46% are for and 47% are against.  This poll is very disappointing to those of us who support marriage equality, as the previous Sun poll, conducted last month, showed 49% to 39% support for marriage equality, and progressive Marylanders such as myself were confident Maryland would become the first state to approve marriage equality in a statewide referendum.  

The Sun blamed the switch on recent opposition from black voters.  In last month's poll, a majority of black voters supported marriage equality, but now 50% are opposed and 42% are in favor.  Of weekly church goers, 70% are opposed.  (This weekly synagogue goer is proud to state that my synagogue, along with most if not all non-Orthodox synagogues, support marriage equality.)

The Dream Act is also a close call, but, unlike marriage equality, every previous poll has showed it to be a close call.  47% are in favor, 45% are opposed.  Most blacks support the Dream Act. Not surprizingly, in Montgomery and Prince Georges Counties voters overwhelmingly support the Dream Act, and the red counties - everything outside the Baltimore-DC metro area, plus exurbia Frederick, Carroll, and Harford, oppose it.  What is surprizing is that the Baltimore metro area opposes the Dream Act 45% to 49%.

The good news is that President Obama is ahead 55% to 36%.  Wish this were true for the whole country.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JamieG from Md, antooo, celdd, radarlady

    "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals, now we know that it is bad economics." Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Jan. 20, 1937

    by Navy Vet Terp on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:42:09 AM PDT

  •  I live in Baltimore and.... (0+ / 0-)

    ...I'm not surprised that there is opposition to Dream Act here. In many ways the Latino population here is looked upon with fear and suspicion by blacks and whites. It's sad, really. Having moved here from Silver Spring, I was surprised.

    •  PS, hoping that marriage equality polling.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Navy Vet Terp, billlaurelMD

      ....is just people lying to polls because of pressure from their ministers and that when push comes to shove they will vote their consciences.

      •  Maria .... I don't think so (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Navy Vet Terp

        and my African-American partner believes that the black church is the problem. :-(

        "Mitt Romney has more positions than the Kama Sutra." -- me "Social justice is love, made public." -- Cornel West

        by billlaurelMD on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:52:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  and historically, at least (0+ / 0-)

        it's been that polling has overstated support, because people didn't want to sound like bigots when talking to a pollster.  Now if this was a robopoll, maybe it's not so bad as I thought.

        "Mitt Romney has more positions than the Kama Sutra." -- me "Social justice is love, made public." -- Cornel West

        by billlaurelMD on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:54:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  My wife's coworkers (3+ / 0-)

        Are predominantly AA's and most are strongly opposed to the referendum.  They were circulating the petition around the office and were surprized my wife refused to sign it.  They feel very strongly about this - even though most are never married single moms - and this has soured them on President Obama, for whom they will vote anyway.

        I'm a life long Baltimorean, 62 years old, and I grew up when virtually every grownup was racist and it was open and unapologetic.  I admit some of this infected me too in my childhood.  Baltimore has changed since the 1950's and 60's but this is still there.  It is the reason why people move to Carroll and Harford Counties - to get away from "them."

        "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals, now we know that it is bad economics." Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Jan. 20, 1937

        by Navy Vet Terp on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:57:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I can't find the 46-47 number in the article (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    librarisingnsf

    or anywhere.  Where did you find it?  It justs say "evenly split."

  •  Last sunday a morning church program (0+ / 0-)

    was on (I was at my cousin's house outside of Baltimore, unable to turn the channel because I was severely hung over) and I heard the pastor on tv talking about how the presiden twas dead wrong on marriage equality but that the congregation needs to vote for him.  I fear that's the message that is going out to black churchgoers all through Maryland.

    I like Michelle more than Barack.

    by duha on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 08:27:28 AM PDT

  •  That's surprising (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    celdd, billlaurelMD, Navy Vet Terp

    The Sun's September poll had the pro-equality good guys up by 10 points, and a Washington Post poll from 18 October had it up 9 (52% to 43%). When the Post reported on it, they did point out that opposition had traditionally been under-reported by polls, but even so, an 10 point swing in a week and a half without any major incident behind it seems shocking.

    I don't have a clear idea of the reliability of OpinionWorks (who conducts the polls for the Sun). They've been, with the exception of their September poll, considerably more bearish on the subject than others (although there are really only two or three groups really polling on the topic). But since they did the September poll as well, I'm assuming, at the very least, the tightening trend is real. If you're in Maryland, please, GOTV. And if you can, pitch in to help at http://marylandersformarriageequality.org/.

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