How does Obama get to the 270 votes he needs in the Electoral College?
The following states all have an over 94.8% chance of an Obama win, according to Nate Silver tonight at http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ and they add up to 237 electoral votes.
California – 55 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (55).
Connecticut - 7 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (62)
Delaware - 3 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (65)
District of Columbia – 3 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (68)
Hawaii – 4 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (72)
Illinois – 20 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (92)
Maine – 4 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (96)
Maryland – 10 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (106)
Massachusetts – 11 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (117)
Michigan – 16 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (133)
Minnesota – 10 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (143)
New Jersey – 14 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (157)
New Mexico – 5 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (162)
New York – 29 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (191)
Oregon - 7 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (198)
Pennsylvania – 20 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (218)
Rhode Island – 4 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (222)
Vermont – 3 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (225)
Washington – 12 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (237)
These 237 electoral votes are in the bag for Obama. All of them have at least a 97.5% of winning, according to Nate (except Pennsylvania that has a 94.5 chance as of tonight).
Mitt Romney had a debate bump. Barack Obama is getting a Storm Surge. Frankenstrom is Romney's worst nightmare.
The following states are all probable Obama wins according to Nate tonight and adding them to the first group brings us up to 303.
Colorado – 9 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (246) – 58.2% of winning according to Nate as of tonight.
Iowa – 6 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (252) 72.7% of winning according to Nate as of tonight.
Nevada – 6 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (258) 80.5 % of winning according to Nate as of tonight.
New Hampshire – 4 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (262) 71.5% of winning according to Nate as of tonight.
Ohio – 18 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (280) 74.9% of winning according to Nate as of tonight.
Virginia - 13 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (293) 59.9% of winning according to Nate as of tonight.
Wisconsin – 10 Electoral Votes – Subtotal = (303) 86.8% of winning according to Nate as of tonight.
These states are all looking good for Obama. All of them have at least a 71.5% of winning, according to Nate tonight (except Colorado that has a 58.2 chance and Virginia that has a 59.9% chance, as of tonight) and would bring us up to 303 electoral votes. Take away Colorado and Virginia and we still have 281 electoral votes.
We can get to 332!!!!
If we can add Florida to these states then we can claim a strong mandate. Florida has a good chance of coming through.
Florida – 29 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (332) 37.5% of winning, according to Nate as of tonight.
I feel more confident every day that Obama can win in Florida. Obama's poll results there have been improving daily. One poll has him winning and others have him very close. If you look at the early voting, the strong Obama campaign organization there, the Hispanic vote and the final debate in Florida bounce, maybe we can bring Florida around, especially if we can GOTV there, we will bring the total up to 332 electoral votes.
I'm dreaming of a landslide mandate.