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Satellite image of Hurricane Sandy
Hurricane Sandy Gets Ready to Hit U.S. Eastern Seaboard

As a New Yorker hunkered down in my apartment right now, bracing for what I hope will not be the monster storm they are predicting, I am also wondering how this will effect the Presidential race.  

Politico has an article out this morning with the same question beginning with, of all things, Will Hurricane Sandy stop Mitt's momentum?  Well, that's easy.  No. It won't stop Mitt's momentum because Mitt's momentum stopped over a week ago.  

It’s hard to see how the storm helps. The Republican nominee has more than closed the gap with the incumbent over the final weeks of the campaign...but...The storm will make it difficult for Romney to make the final push in states affected by the storm including Virginia, Florida and New Hampshire.
Unfortunately, it will make it difficult for Obama to campaign as well.  Not to mention if this storm causes a lot of collateral damage.

Does Obama have the incumbent advantage?  Unless Obama FUBAR's it up in some George W. Bush way (and can't you just see Andrea Saul in feline pounce position just waiting for anything Obama does so she can attack him?), the President has the advantage.

On Sunday, he visited the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s headquarters for a briefing, which is pictured prominently on the White House Website. The president, in suit and shirt with no tie, sits between FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate and Deputy Administrator Richard Serino.
Again, if the storm doesn't do a lot of damage, photo ops of the President doing his job well, sends a positive message, and also negatively reinforces Mitt's FEMA comments that have been bouncing around the media.

What about all those ads the campaigns are running?  

Obviously this will effect both candidates but I'd like to think it will play worse for Romney.  If for no other reason than he will not have the opportunity to play his smack in your face ad about Chrysler Jeeps in China Lie.

Romney’s campaign had already boasted of sitting on millions for a last-minute TV push.
Considering Romney is the one who needs to make the narrative push to close in on the President's lead in the swing states, this is good news for the Obama campaign.  Of course, everything is dependent on the severity of the storm.  But if it doesn't turn out quite as bad as they're predicting, and we still have a week to adjust, maybe this will not impact voter turnout, or GOTV leading up to November 6th.

What say you, fellow Kossacks?

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    If you ever get to the place where injustice doesn't bother you, you're dead. ~~ Molly Ivins

    by zoebear on Mon Oct 29, 2012 at 06:00:21 AM PDT

  •  Concerned now about regular voting on Nov. 6th (7+ / 0-)

    Especially in Pennsylvania.  The last thing on peoples' minds when there is no power and trees down everywhere blocking roads is going to vote.

    •  Alabama in between... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The normal dynamic for power outages is that urban areas come back more quickly than rural.  If, if, that holds true here, then I would think the effect winds up being at worse a wash, with the deeper red areas of PA more likely to be affected longer than the blues in Philly and Pittsburgh.

    •  Obama probably has enough of a cushion to (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      lose some voters in Pennsylvania. Still, I think African-Americans, particularly, will probably do everything in their power to vote. They know the stakes.

  •  Mark my words, the idiots in the MSM (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    will use the response to this storm to correct the false narrative of "Mitt-mentum" (LOL) and claim it has helped to swing the momentum back to Obama (even though he clearly already has it).

    The storm will be what gives them an out so they don't look like fools by claiming Mitt is "surging" going into Election Day.

    Like I said, mark my words.

  •  The President will be occupied by his day job (0+ / 0-)

    for the next few days, keeping him off the campaign trail while Mitt continues to campaign.

    Depending on the scope of the storm damage, I wouldn't expect to see Obama return to campaigning before Thursday or Friday. The campaign will have a tough call to make on that, because Republicans will criticize the President for campaigning so soon after the storm.

    I also wonder if Democrats should be concerned about an Election Day impact due to the storm - will turnout of Democratic voters in NYC, Philly, Northern VA and other blue areas be impacted by storm damage, power outages, etc? Could this kind of thing put PA back in play?

    NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

    by bear83 on Mon Oct 29, 2012 at 06:15:35 AM PDT

  •  A little worried (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    zoebear, TheGreatLeapForward

    I think we have been winning, so anything unpredictable is a bit troubling. My main concerns are;

    1) That this hits election day turnout among our voters (Who, after all, will as always be the hardest hit) which could give Romney a surprise boost

    2) That the President is somehow painted by the media (Which right now is determined to not admit he's ahead) as 'weakened' or made to look impotent by this.

    It definitely COULD play to our advantage though, if the effects aren't as bad as we fear and the President looks presidential throughout, and is seen to be putting nation over electoral gain.

    Most of all, worried about people in harm's way out there; you guys stay safe!

    •  Definitely am hoping this turns (0+ / 0-)

      out to be minimal in terms of property damage, and am hoping for everyone's safety.  Goes without saying.

      But if the storm is not as bad as predicted, we still have a week to adjust to what ever does happen and I think it plays to our side.

      If you ever get to the place where injustice doesn't bother you, you're dead. ~~ Molly Ivins

      by zoebear on Mon Oct 29, 2012 at 06:21:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Prediction: West Virginia goes for Obama (0+ / 0-)

    as the cities in the west vote for Obama while the rural (is the entire state rural?) areas of the east and south get snowed in and voting turnout is nonexistant.


    Notice: This Comment © 2012 ROGNM

    by ROGNM on Mon Oct 29, 2012 at 06:26:55 AM PDT

  •  Looks like deep red (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    areas of TN Ky and WV will be hit by heavy snow.This could affect turnout.

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