Skip to main content

The latest numbers, from TPM's polling composites:

Compared to last Wednesday, President Barack Obama has retaken the lead in Colorado and Virginia. Florida remains the flip of a GOTV operation, and North Carolina remains Mitt Romney's best bet.

The official composite includes all the crap GOP pollsters, like Rasmussen et al. For fun, I decided to check what would happen if I excluded Rasmussen in some of these states.

In North Carolina, that 2.5-point deficit would be 1.2 points.

In Ohio, that 1.4-point lead would be a 3-point Obama lead, 50-47.  

In Wisconsin, that 2.2 lead would be a 3.2-point Obama lead, 48.7-45.5.

So Ras is single-handedly worth 1-2 points in the composite for Romney.

Today's numbers bring back something we had discussed extensively prior to the first debate—Romney's likability ceiling. Obama is at 48 percent or better in every state except for North Carolina. Romney is at 48 percent or better in just two of these nine states. Look at how that compares to Romney's level of support back on 10/19, the strongest Romney day in these snapshots:

Even with Rasmussen and the baby Rasmussens like Gravis propping up his numbers, Romney is down in half of these states. Given that he's losing in most of them, he needs his level of support to rise in all of them.

Now here are Obama's numbers:

Average all those numbers out, and Romney has declined 0.33 points the last 10 days, while Obama has gained 0.71.

The campaign will now be on hold over the next several days as national polling grinds to a halt and the eastern battlegrounds focus on riding out Sandy. Given the trends in this race, it's not a good turn of events for Republicans pretending to have any shot at the White House.

Originally posted to kos on Mon Oct 29, 2012 at 12:18 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site