I had planned to make firm predictions either today or tomorrow. That becomes complicated because we do not yet know the political impact of Sandy -
- who might have difficulties voting
- how the electorate might react to Obama's handling of the situation
- whether or not Romney might again really step in it, beyond his previous statements
It is possible that some people will decide that voting is simply not that important. That is likely to fall more heavily in Democratic areas than in Republican areas. That could depress Obama's national popular vote totals.
It is also possible that the difference in attitudes towards Government will be affected by this storm, and not just in its impact area, which could boost Obama's national popular vote totals.
I am not yet ready to call the national popular vote total. My gut is still that Obama will win by at least 2%, but I will want to watch news for another few days.
Electoral college - I actually think the strength of Obama's preparation and response, and having Chris Christie all over the place praising him has electoral impact on states on the East Coast, which involves 4 battleground states: NH, VA, NC, and FL.
So my gut reaction now is not that different from a week ago in the electoral college - I think we are looking at 332 (including FL) and quite possibly 347 (NC) - in other words, Obama wins everything he carried the last time except IN and 2nd CD of NE.
As for the 2nd CD - I wonder if given the Kerry surge in the Senate race, that might not be in place.
In Senate, I still think we lose NE, but keep all other Dem seats, including McCaskill. Despite Boston Globe poll yesterday, I think Warren wins, and I think King wins Maine and Donnelly wins IN. That would mean at worst Dems have 55 seats in new Senate. Not yet ready to call NV or AZ, although my gut says at least one if not both.
I do not see us winning the House, not unless overall national numbers change a lot in next few days.
But what the heck do I know? My Starbucks is closed at least until Noon. Have no idea what unemployment figures will be, when they will come out, how they will be played?
I will probably now wait until Friday to make my real call - I want to watch what happens with Sandy, what campaigning is done, how the news coverage is, and to see if the unemployment figures are release.d