Ah, what is it about conservatives in which they like to preemptively gloat, or quickly over wear their welcome? The meme's are hitting fast and furious. We've already seen the "stray Ohio poll showing Romney tied or ahead", there's the national numbers (but only Ras or Gallup count), there's the Independents thing, there's the Obama is panicking and lurching to the left, and then recently there's been the Dems are playing defense in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and yes, MINNESOTA! (but you don't hear anything about Rove doubling down on ads in NC). The latest meme from them, is a triumphant glee at the alleged destruction of Obama's 2008 coalition: (see after the fold for why I'm optimistic)
This is the flip-side of Obama’s angry, leftward lurch: Obama has sacrificed the middle, a great number of women voters and the critical independent vote.
You see the transformation geographically as well. Consider the following states with Obama’s 2008 margin is in parenthesis: Ohio (Obama +4.6), Florida (Obama + 2.8), Pennsylvania (Obama + 10.8), Virginia (Obama 6.3), New Hampshire, Colorado (Obama +9), Wisconsin (Obama 13.9), Iowa (Obama +9.5), Indiana (Obama +1.1), North Carolina (Obama +.3) and Minnesota (Obama +10.3). In the most recent public polling Romney is ahead or within the margin of error in every single one of these. Put differently, it is possible Obama loses all of them.
.....
The race remains close, but Obama has presided over the Democratic Party’s shrinkage demographically, politically and geographically. The only question is whether Romney can capitalize and make it past the 270 electoral vote marker.
Rubin is talking nonsense. The election was always going to be tighter. Has anyone ever suggested otherwise, if anything it's right-wingers that are preemptively getting ready for a blowout. Obama's not "losing his coalition". He's doing about what Democrats normally do with white blue collar workers outside of the south. Lopsided negative polling among white's in the southern red states is responsible for these numbers.
AAs? Check. Latinos? Check--and in record numbers too (by the way a big thank you to the guys at Latino Decisions, thank you for the work and updates). Youth? Check. Some say the gender gap is eroding, but to quote and paraphrase Axelrod & Plouffe, "We'll find out who is talking nonsense on November 6".
The early voting figures speak for themselves. They've been diaried by nice Kossites here (good job FightingRegistrar!) and here among others.
Engaged turnout like that just doesn't happen to a coalition that's demoralized, or that has been destroyed.
I'm more optimistic about the election the closer we get to it frankly. Something about 'protesting too much' from the other side.