Hey everyone. This is my first diary. I hadn't seen this posted anywhere, so here we go.
In his newest column, Charlie Cook - who, as everyone here knows, gets to see most of the private polls, is mostly just writing what we all know; that it's really really close both nationally and in the battlegrounds, mostly 2-3 points. But he does have two tidbits which are interesting, and both favour us
1) He describes both Wisconsin and Nevada as states which are 'in play' but in which 'Obama has a clear lead in credible private surveys from long-standing professional polling firms calling landlines and cellphones' and thus gives 253 electoral votes safe or leaning to Obama
2) He explicitly states that while Florida, North Carolina and Virginia looked like they were slipping to Romney, they are now "essentially even money contests".
That means that Cook and the reputable polling has us safer in NV and WI than Romney is even in NC, and that we have a really, really good chance to put this thing away! We entered this fall with 9 battlegrounds and the only 2 that have been put away have both been by our side. That also means that by Cook's analysis, we only need Ohio to go over the top.
Now just to be clear, it's not all good news. He thinks Romney has a real chance to win the popular vote, and he makes it clear that it's 2-3 points in it in most of the swing states, 5 at the most - including Ohio.
Even so, I definitely know who I'd rather be one week out!