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Leading Off:

ND-Sen: As we mentioned previously, Bill Clinton was in Fargo, ND on Monday, stumping on behalf of Democratic Senate candidate Heidi Heitkamp, who previously served as the state's attorney general. The Big Dog delivered one line in particular about Heitkamp that only he could pull off:

Clinton also noted that Heitkamp, while she was attorney general, took on his administration while he was president in a dispute over wetlands.

"She sued me and beat me and won," Clinton said.


FL-Sen (SurveyUSA): Bill Nelson (D-inc): 49 (48), Connie Mack (R): 41 (40); Obama-Romney 47-47 (Obama 47-46).

MA-Sen (Suffolk): Elizabeth Warren (D): 53 (48), Scott Brown (R-inc): 46 (44); Obama 63-31 (64-31).

ND-Sen (Mason-Dixon): Heidi Heitkamp (D): 45 (47), Rick Berg (R): 47 (47); Romney 54-40 (54-40).

NJ-Sen (GSG/Nat'l Research): Bob Menendez (D-inc): 50 (49), Joe Kyrillos (R): 32 (35); Obama 51-41 (51-40).

NM-Sen (GBA for Heinrich): Martin Heinrich (D): 51 (51), Heather Wilson (R): 41 (39), Jon Barrie (IAP): 6 (8).

NM-Sen (POS for Wilson): Martin Heinrich (D): 43 (43), Heather Wilson (R): 44 (43), Jon Barrie (IAP): 6 (9); Obama 47-42 (47-40).


ND-AL (Mason-Dixon): Pam Gulleson (D): 40 (37), Kevin Cramer (R): 50 (49).

NM-01 (Research & Polling): Michelle Lujan Grisham (D): 51 (51), Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 36 (37).

NV-04 (SurveyUSA): Steven Horsford (D): 42 (42), Danny Tarkanian (R): 47 (45); Obama-Romney 48-48 (Obama 52-43). SUSA's last poll here was taken at the end of September, and I'm just having a hard time buying the notion that Obama collapsed from a nine-point lead in NV-04 to a 48-all tie. I'd still like to see a poll from someone other that SurveyUSA or the Tarkanian campaign, though.

NY-19 (Siena): Julian Schreibman (D): 43 (36), Chris Gibson (R-inc): 48 (52); Obama 50-42 (49-45). Schreibman's narrowed the gap on Gibson, but with just a week left to go, he would need a lot of momentum to power past the incumbent. As for the presidential numbers, either Obama's recovered considerably here (the eight-point gap matches his 2008 spread), or this poll has an overly-optimistic sample of Democrats.

Other Races:

CA Ballot: The USC/LA Times poll (taken by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner) that came out last week (giving Barack Obama a 54-40 lead) also tested the Golden State's many ballot measures. Prop 30—Jerry Brown's preferred initiative to raise top-tier income taxes to untangle the state's finances is passing, but only by a 46-42 margin. (Competing Prop 38, which does the same thing but only more so, is failing 56-28.) Prop 32, which would hamper unions' abilities to back political candidates, is failing 46-40. Prop 34, which would end the death penalty, is failing 45-43, while Prop 36 to reform the overbearing "three strikes" law is passing 64-22. Finally, Prop 37, which creates new labeling requirements for genetically modified foods, is passing 44-43. (David Jarman)

GA Ballot: SurveyUSA finds a 52-44 presidential race in Mitt Romney's favor in Georgia, which sounds about right given its position relative to the national average; they also find the state's charter schools amendment passing 38-29. (Georgia already has charter schools, but this makes it easier for local authorities to create them.) (David Jarman)

MN Ballot: The Star-Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll from a few days ago that put up surprisingly-close presidential numbers also has a very close contest for the state's same-sex marriage ballot measure: it's passing, but only by a 48-47 margin. (Minnesota law contains an interesting provision, that ballot measures must pass with 50% of all ballots cast. So it needs to clear more than just 50%+1, since undervotes will essentially count against it.) Also, while we've pretty much given up reporting on MN-Sen, the margin here is so comical that we have to share it: Amy Klobuchar is leading Kurt Bills by 43 points (65-22). (David Jarman)

OR Ballot: Oregon's another state without a competitive presidential race, and no Senate or gubernatorial race, but that didn't stop two different polls from coming out. Elway Research, on behalf of the Oregonian, finds Barack Obama leading only 47-41. Lower on the ballot, undecideds are rampant: Democratic SoS Kate Brown leads Knute Buehler 38-23, while in the ostensibly nonpartisan Labor Commissioner race, Dem Brad Avakian leads Bruce Starr 26-20. The state's marijuana legalization measure is failing 49-42, while the measure to end corporate tax kicker rebates and put that money into K-12 is passing easily, 52-33.

Local pollster DHM Research also hit most of the same races, on behalf of Oregon Public Broadcasting and KPTV, finding similar numbers: they found Barack Obama leading 49-42, Kate Brown leading 43-37, Brad Avakian leading 22-19, and the corporate tax/K-12 funding measure passing 53-36. They also found Democrats leading the state legislative generic ballot 49-36, and, in an apparently separate sample, found Charlie Hales leading Jefferson Smith 44-25 in the Portland mayoral race. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

AAN/CLF: The American Action Network and the Congressional Leadership Fund (two linked groups, both with ties to John Boehner) are out with a list six new ads, presumably their final round of new spots before e-day. A full list is at the link. The most interested here is FL-10, where conservatives are still trying to protect GOP Rep. Dan Webster.

Crossroads: Karl Rove's Crossroads twins have launched their final Senate ad assault: $10.5 million across 10 different states. Roll Call has the complete run-down at the list. Most interesting is that we now have the size of the buy for their last-second efforts in NE-Sen ($420K). And surprisingly, Crossroads is still bothering with NM-Sen. Do they really believe Heather Wilson's polling showing the race a tie, in the face of implacable leads for Democrat Martin Heinrich for months?

Election Results: If, like us, you're one of those people who wants to know exactly when each state certifies its official election returns so that you can begin formal number crunching, then you'll be thrilled with Ballotpedia's new list. They've compiled information about each state's laws in terms of when election authorities are required to publish official results.

HMP: The pro-Dem House Majority PAC just announced its final set of ad buys in advance of election day. A full list (including links to each ad and the size of each buy) is available if you click through. The most notable race on the list is IN-02, a difficult Democratic hold.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 05:26 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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