I haven't seen much lately about the potential effects of Third Party candidates Gary Johnson (Libertarian) and Virgil Goode (Constitution). Nor have I seen them included in the myriad of polls we pore over, study, rejoice and panic about here.
And yet they are showing up as a possible factor in some key states:
In Nevada, a CNN/ORC International poll last month showed Goode winning 4% support and Johnson 3%, with Obama holding a 47%-44% lead over Romney in the state. Based on 2008 turnout in Nevada, the support for Goode and Johnson would amount to about 67,000 votes.
Goode, a former Democrat-turned-Republican congressman from Virginia known for an anti-immigration stance and other strongly conservative policies, routinely won well over 120,000 votes in his home district in elections from 1996 to 2008.
If he gets only 10% of that support this time, it could be enough to swing what is currently considered a dead-even race for Virginia's 13 electoral votes to Obama.
Last week, the Republican Times Free Press of Chattanooga, TN
endorsed Johnson over Romney. Though TN is not a swing state, the endorsement has created blog buzz and FWIW, TN does border on NC.
Some have argued that as a "social liberal," Johnson might peel away Obama voters as much as Romney voters. That's possible, but not likely. Goode, on the other hand, will be attractive to Republicans who just don't trust Romney to be as racist as they would like. Here's Goode in 2006:
The Muslim Representative from Minnesota [Keith Ellison] was elected by the voters of that district and if American citizens don’t wake up and adopt the Virgil Goode position on immigration there will likely be many more Muslims elected to office and demanding the use of the Koran.
That's red meat for some Virginia voters (i.e., the 120,000 who voted for him in his last election for Congress) who think Romney is squishy on these issues.
As for third party threats to Obama, Democrats have apparently learned the Nader lesson. Green Party candidate Jill Stein barely shows up in polls, and is not on the ballot in swing states NC and NH.
But Virgil and Gary? Go for it, guys!