GREAT new poll, not even posted on the pollsters sites yet but just tweeted by politico and Huffpo.
The United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, surveyed 1,010 adults—including 713 likely voters by cell phone and landline—on Oct. 25-28. It has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample, and 4.4 percentage points for likely voters.
These national measures of sentiment don’t necessarily predict the results in the state-by-state and district-by-district contests that will decide House and Senate control. Yet they illuminate the competing, even contradictory, impulses among voters that are shaping the relationship between the presidential and congressional contests.
Overall, the survey found Obama leading Romney among likely voters by 50 percent to 45 percent, after the two tied at 47 percent each in a late-September Congressional Connection Poll. Conversely, the poll recorded a slight shift toward the GOP in House races. Now, 47 percent of likely voters say they would prefer that Republicans maintain their House majority, while 44 percent want Democrats to take over; Democrats held a 45 percent to 43 percent advantage in late September. Voters, by a solid 50 percent to 40 percent margin, now say they would prefer a Democratic Senate; that’s up from a 47 percent to 42 percent advantage for Democrats in September.