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Oct 31, 10:38AM O:318, R:220. Meta Margin 2.6% Beysian prediction 99%

Dr Wang alludes to the conflict between tied national races and the swing state results, thus:

The "Meta-margin" shows that state polls would have to swing toward Mitt Romney by 2.6% to tie the race. This Meta-Margin differs by about 3.0% from national polls. I regard this as the big current mystery. While we bring PEC back online, I am doing analysis to understand the difference. Swing-state polls were dead-on in 2004 and 2008, suggesting either national-poll methods or non-swing state opinion as the culprits.
Think Dr Wang is saying: "Looks like Romney is over performing in Red states a lot without affecting the electoral college. Or there could be some systemic error in national polls." I think it is a little of both. Most national polls seem to be giving the Republicans a +4 or +6 advantage in LV compared to RV results. Add to it, some really high enthusiasm in red states living in the alternative universe of Faux News.

Another important difference is that, PEC was always projecting O at slightly below 300. Nate's histograms always had the highest probability for the 332 number at around 13 to 16%. All other scenarios were lower in 538. But PEC always had it lower than 300. Their histogram peaked at slightly below 300, and the 332 number was in the tail ends, not in the fat portion of the distribution curve. But this simulation has moved the ev count significantly towards O in the last 24 hours. I am so glad they are converging, and glad the convergence is happening at the Nate's higher number.

Chris Christie has jumped off the sinking ship. He is taking care of his re-election chances in a Blue state. He seems to be preserving his 2016 hopes by not being associated with a loser. There were flickering signs of Christie defying Romney in their convention.

OK let us wait and see how soon the other rats abandon ship. Wondering how their media narrative is going to be. They need to tie the loss to personal failings of Romney and preserve the "legitimacy" of their lunatic right wing policies. They will just blame it as bad luck of Sandy that made O look presidential?

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Comment Preferences

  •  Intrade has major Mojo for Obama right now too (6+ / 0-)

    Breaking the 2/3 barrier for the first time since the debate one fall.

    I love the look in peoples eyes when they realize, for the first time, that they have power.

    by 4democracy on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 03:14:16 PM PDT

  •  What does that say for the house? (0+ / 0-)
    The "Meta-margin" shows that state polls would have to swing toward Mitt Romney by 2.6% to tie the race. This Meta-Margin differs by about 3.0% from national polls. I regard this as the big current mystery. While we bring PEC back online, I am doing analysis to understand the difference. Swing-state polls were dead-on in 2004 and 2008, suggesting either national-poll methods or non-swing state opinion as the culprits.
    So, the state by state senate polls are showing a very good election for the Democrats as are the state by state Presidential polls. If the national Presidential polls are incorrectly leaning towards Romney, could a similar problem be affecting the understanding of national congressional situation (ie the generic ballot)? It seems there is likely to be a lot of split ticket voting occurring if the Dems. do well in the Senate, Obama keeps the Presidency and Boehner is still speaker.
    •  House is tough to get. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      scotths, Its a New Day

      The house districts have been gerrymandered so drastically that it would take a much bigger swing to get them.

      They lump all Dems in a few districts and spread a smaller but safer margins across many districts. So in all state wide offices (winner take all electoral votes and the Senate) dems will win with just a percent or two margin. But to get the individual house districts we need a much bigger swing.

      •  yeah.. I'm familiar with that problem.. (0+ / 0-)
        The house districts have been gerrymandered so drastically that it would take a much bigger swing to get them.

        They lump all Dems in a few districts and spread a smaller but safer margins across many districts. So in all state wide offices (winner take all electoral votes and the Senate) dems will win with just a percent or two margin. But to get the individual house districts we need a much bigger swing.

        The Senate was supposed to be impossible for the Democrats to hold, yet is seems like they may even gain seats. My understanding is the generic ballot only needs to be off by a couple of points for the Democrats to have a real chance. Maybe it is....
        •  I'm one of those weirdos who thinsk there (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sfinx, Byblis

          should be a lot more members in the House.  The 435 limit was set by Congress itself back in the early 20th century.  We now have 1 rep per 800,000+ citizens.  We should at least kick this up to 1/350,000 or less.  Yes, that might mean 1500+ congresscritters, but it would be much more representative, which is what the framers seemed to be going for.  And guess which party would benefit from this?  

          Buck up--Never say die. We'll get along! Charlie Chaplin, Modern Times (1936).

          by dizzydean on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 04:23:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I dunna know (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    litho

    Morris has Rmoney as a slam dunk

  •  Sean Trende over at RCP has a very similar (0+ / 0-)

    analysis of the split between national and state polls.

    If the state polls are right, even assuming Romney performs as well as Bush did in the states without polling, Obama should lead by 1.18 points in the national vote. Given the high collective samples in both the state and national polling, this is almost certainly a statistically significant difference. It’s also a larger margin than all but one of the polls in the national RCP Average presently show.

    But what if my assumptions about the states without polling are incorrect? To double-check this, I turned to Drew Linzer’s “Votamatic” model. It provides estimates for all 50 states. While some of these seem a bit off (I would bet $10,000 of Mitt Romney’s money that he will win Tennessee by more than 10 points), it still gives us a nice uniform data set. The result: When weighted by 2008 voting patterns, these data suggest that Romney should lose the popular vote by 2.5 points -- more than any national poll is presently showing.

    Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
    ¡Boycott Arizona!

    by litho on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 04:06:54 PM PDT

    •  May be LV screen is wrong. (0+ / 0-)

      It is possible the "friendly" posters are waiting till the last moment to take their thumbs off the scale to provide some fuel for Romneybot.

      Who would have thought one could execute the etch-a-sketch reset in the first week of October right in front of 65 million people?

      Traditionally Ras and his cronies provide whatever number their side likes at that moment. Then in the last week they shoot for accuracy. This time around they might decide to delay the shooting for accuracy for the last day itself. Who knows? But this is pure speculation, wishful thinking and conspiracy mongering by me. Nate thinks Ras is not cheating, it just has a predictable bias. So let me not go there.

      I would say it is their LV screen that is getting them into trouble. In RV Obama is leading as predicted by the state polls, if you give the traditional +2 for Republicans to go from RV to LV. So this is accounting for some difference. And the Romney over performing in red states could account for the rest.

      Anyway, RCP average is sharply moving towards Obama. May be in the next few days the national polls will converge to state polls.

  •  Nate has an article on the difference (0+ / 0-)

    between state and national polls.  He says historically, in the most recent elections, state polls have shown less bias.  He concludes that Romney's winning the popular vote is less likely than the national polls suggest.

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