Dr Wang alludes to the conflict between tied national races and the swing state results, thus:
The "Meta-margin" shows that state polls would have to swing toward Mitt Romney by 2.6% to tie the race. This Meta-Margin differs by about 3.0% from national polls. I regard this as the big current mystery. While we bring PEC back online, I am doing analysis to understand the difference. Swing-state polls were dead-on in 2004 and 2008, suggesting either national-poll methods or non-swing state opinion as the culprits.Think Dr Wang is saying: "Looks like Romney is over performing in Red states a lot without affecting the electoral college. Or there could be some systemic error in national polls." I think it is a little of both. Most national polls seem to be giving the Republicans a +4 or +6 advantage in LV compared to RV results. Add to it, some really high enthusiasm in red states living in the alternative universe of Faux News.
Another important difference is that, PEC was always projecting O at slightly below 300. Nate's histograms always had the highest probability for the 332 number at around 13 to 16%. All other scenarios were lower in 538. But PEC always had it lower than 300. Their histogram peaked at slightly below 300, and the 332 number was in the tail ends, not in the fat portion of the distribution curve. But this simulation has moved the ev count significantly towards O in the last 24 hours. I am so glad they are converging, and glad the convergence is happening at the Nate's higher number.
Chris Christie has jumped off the sinking ship. He is taking care of his re-election chances in a Blue state. He seems to be preserving his 2016 hopes by not being associated with a loser. There were flickering signs of Christie defying Romney in their convention.
OK let us wait and see how soon the other rats abandon ship. Wondering how their media narrative is going to be. They need to tie the loss to personal failings of Romney and preserve the "legitimacy" of their lunatic right wing policies. They will just blame it as bad luck of Sandy that made O look presidential?