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Latest from 538--300.4 EV, 79 % probability and 50.5%PV. TPM now at O 1.3+. Pres's performance re Sandy is the October surprise.  Gov. Christie not to attend Thanksgiving DInner chez Mittens.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (15+ / 0-)

    What rough beast, its hour come round at last/Slouches toward Bethlehem waiting to be born?

    by cova1 on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 10:29:02 PM PDT

  •  I think part of the momentum (11+ / 0-)

    is that Gallup suspended their tracker

    Presidential Debates 2012: I. Big Bird; II. Binders; III. Bayonets.

    by InsultComicDog on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 10:31:12 PM PDT

    •  Perhaps - however - (3+ / 0-)

      a) I doubt Nate has not accounted for this in his model, either by adjusting it or based on its design

      b) There has been some terrific state polling for Obama lately.  (See Nate's earlier tweet on Ohio).

      c) The other trackers had good days for Obama.  Gallup is not the only one suspended -- IDB (I think) has too, and that one was more bullish for Obama.

      d) Gallup's influence is small in light of the volume of other polling.

  •  Just donated again! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fou, dustb, skertso, HillaryIsMyHomegirl

    Hope I win chance to see President Obama win again in Chicago.

  •  Obamaentum... (0+ / 0-)

    has a nice Latin feel...

    "Fascism is attracting the dregs of humanity- people with a slovenly biography - sadists, mental freaks, traitors." - ILYA EHRENBURG

    by durrati on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 10:45:07 PM PDT

  •  This is without the new WI Marquette poll either! (0+ / 0-)

    Once that's added tomorrow, Wisconsin may fall into 90% Obama territory (currently 88%)

    "A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in." - Unknown

    by aThracian on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 10:47:44 PM PDT

  •  Obama will visit top 538 tipping point states (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ZappoDave, slinkerwink

    Obama's final stretch schedule includes all of Nate Silver's highlighted tipping point states - and no others. These are illustrated on 538 as the Return on Investment Index graph.

    Probably no accident.

  •  Here are the most read articles at RCP today: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hatrax

    Most Read
    LAST 24 HOURS
    Mitt Set to Win, Maybe By a Mile
    - Michael Graham, Boston Herald
    Here Comes the Landslide
    - Dick Morris, The Hill
    Late-Deciders Breaking Hard for Romney?
    - Conn Carroll, DC Examiner
    A Polling Quandary in the Buckeye State
    - Jay Cost, Weekly Standard

    LAST 7 DAYS
    Team Obama Sees the Writing on the Wall
    - Josh Jordan, National Review
    America Has Finally Seen the Real Obama
    - Peggy Noonan, Wall St Journal
    Mitt Set to Win, Maybe By a Mile
    - Michael Graham, Boston Herald

    I'm forewarning all of you now, the right is setting this up to make an "election was stolen" case on November 7th.  I don't care about them whining, they can whine all they want.  What I worry about is them driving the crazies to political violence.

  •  I'm sensing a certain ... what is it .. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    seancdaug

    a bending of the many grasses in a certain direction .. they are tell me something .. but .. it escapes me. Oh wait -- I know what it is. It appears all trends are towards Obama.

    •  Which is, of course... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      InsultComicDog, ZappoDave

      ...good, nay, excellent news for John McCain. :-D

    •  Truth will out - Repugs still lie, cheat, steal... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ZappoDave

      Careful out there.

      Friend in Fl went to a voting station to set up a way her 86 year old mother - who got out of the hospital a week ago - could vote.  

      She met a poll watcher who was very courteous with information if needed.

      She met a women who would not leave her alone... who tried to give her GOP info which she refused, saying "I'm a Democrat, leave me alone".

      This just spurred the GOP operative on - she told my friend, "No worry about your Mother and long lines... just come back on WEDNESDAY to vote"!

      At that point, my friend lost it and told her she was telling lies and should be reported.  GOP operative retorted: "I'm a Christian and go to Church every Sunday".  Friend and by that time poll watcher both replied:  You are a liar - perhaps you should go pray about your lies this Sunday.

      Friend almost left, but her 86 year old Mother told her that she would be happy to wait in the car while she went to DISCUSS this important issue.

      So, she went inside, complained to the poll workers about the woman giving misleading information.  She ensured that this woman, and other freaks out there... will be closely watched.
      ---
      ALSO:  Friend sent this from Facebook:

      Efren Carrillo, Sonoma County supervisor is in Florida and is working for voter protection.  He reports, I am told by young people, on his Facebook site:

      "Working Voter Protection during early voting in Florida and boy the accounts on the field are simply incredulous! Voter suppression is off the charts here!!!!"

      GET OUT THERE AND HELP - where you can.
      This is YOUR RIGHT.

      WE ALL CAN DO SOMETHING TO PROTECT THE VOTE!

  •  Yo' Romney! (0+ / 0-)

    Can I get a Question> ? sung to the tune of Can I Get A Witness.

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