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U.S. President Barack Obama talks at a campaign event at the John S. Knight Center in Akron, Ohio, August 1, 2012. REUTERS/Larry Downing  
The AFL-CIO previewed its plans for getting out the vote in the final four days of the election in mid-October, detailing the 5.5 million doors that will be knocked by 128,000 volunteers and a massive mail campaign. On Friday, AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka and political director Michael Podhorzer spoke more about the labor federation's GOTV plans, polling and voter protection plans. They also offered a look into their read of the crucial swing state of Ohio. Ohio has higher union density than most other battleground states, and working people's issues have been front and center as Mitt Romney has campaigned against President Barack Obama's auto industry rescue. According to a memo from Podhorzer, unions are doing their part to ensure that Obama carries the state:
It’s worth noting that our internal polling shows President Obama with 57% of the union vote, approaching the 59% of the vote he received from union voters in 2008 according to the exit polls. Without the union vote, President Obama would be trailing badly in Ohio. Our internal tracking shows that those non-union voters contacted by Working America or Workers’ voice, who hear the same economic message[,] are favoring the President, doing much to explain why support for President Obama among blue collar voters is much stronger in Ohio than in other parts of the nation.
That helps explain this:
Bar graph showing that while Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama among white voters by 21 points nationally, in Ohio the margin is just 7 points.
In the memo, Podhorzer concludes that Obama can win Ohio if Romney's margin among white voters remains at 10 percent or less.

Mitt Romney has, of course, provided almost infinite reasons for working-class voters of any race to not just oppose but fear his candidacy. But we see, election after election, that white working-class voters who belong to unions or are contacted by Working America (or likely, this cycle, Workers' Voice and other such union-related outreach efforts) vote for Democrats at a significantly higher rate than white working-class voters who aren't involved with the labor movement at all. Happily, the effort to make sure that's the case in 2012 appears to be going well. Check out the full memo for lots of analysis.

Please give what you can to help President Obama win this thing.

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