(WARNING: Math Ahead! If you are adverse to logic, reason and science please consult a Doctor before reading, you may be a Conservative)

Joe Scarborough mocked Nate Silver's 78% or s so Obama victory likelihood.  He stated it was something more like 50/50, a coin flip.  I am going to meet Joe half way.  I will assume that the battleground states are toss-ups and still show how it is not a coin-flip election.

First of all I start with the following assumptions: 237 EV are in the bag for Obama, and 191 for Romney.

The battleground states are: CO (9 EV), IA (6), FL (29), NC (15), NH (4), NV (9), OH (18), VA (13), WI (10)

So if our assumption is that each of these is a coin flip that means there is 512 permutations.

Obama wins 431 of them...84%.

OK, lets give Romney a better chance, lets throw North Carolina his way, after all 538 has it at an 80% chance for Romney.  That leave with 256 possibilities.

Obama wins 193 pf them...75%

OK, let us give Romney Florida, too, as Nate has that 55% for Romney right now.  That leaves us with 128 scenarios.

Obama wins 66 of them...51.5%...a Coinflip, more or less!

But wait,l 538 doesn't even have Wisconsin as a battleground any more, it is at 91%. SO lets give that to Obama, seems fair. 64 scenarios.

Obama wins 42 scenarios...or 66%.

Well let's see if we can get Romney over the hump with is next most likely pickup, Colorado, at 65% favorability for Obama. 32 scenarios.

Obama wins 18 time...56%...almost a coin-flip.

Let's give Romney the next most likely, Virginia, at 66% of Obama.  We are down to just 16 scenarios.

Obama wins just 6 of them...only 37.5%. Hmmm...

Lets give Obama his next most likely state, Nevada at a healthy 88%.  Now we are just down to 8 scenarios.

Obama wins 4 of them!! COIN-FLIP!!!!!!!

What is the determining factor, half the time when Obama wins Ohio and half the time when he does not.

Now let us summarize, for it to be a coin-flip, Romney must win NC (good chance), Florida (50/50), Colorado (65-35 for Obama), and Virginia (66-34 for Obama). while losing Wisconisn (91% for Obama).

But if they do, that makes it a 50/50 chance if Ohio is a coin-flip.

538 has Obama at 80% in Ohio.  According to that my friends, is not a coin-flip.

Disclaimer: This is not meant to be a rigorous statistical analysis of the race, but an attempt to show how this race is simply not a 50/50.  It just isn't true.

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#### Comment Preferences

TAX the RICH

• ##### When the coin flip-flops(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Cedwyn, sceptical observer, Mary Mike

like you know who

• ##### well done!(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Mary Mike, sceptical observer

the only thing that will get Rmoney in the Whitehouse is vote fraud. Which could happen.

This Rover crossed over.. Willie Nelson, written by Dorothy Fields

• ##### asdf(0+ / 0-)

we're all Okies now.

• ##### I check electoral-vote.com every morning...(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
sceptical observer

...and that 237-191 that you list has been very persistent for a while.  I go by the "Safe" and "likely" categories, and don't count the "barely" category, and that 237-191 has been where things have settled.  When you look at the "barely" and "exactly tied" categories, Romney still doesn't get to 270; his best case scenario is 257.  He will have to flip a couple of solid Democratic states to get to 270... and while nothing's for certain, I like our odds.

• ##### The Scar knows it's a 51-49, neck-and-neck,(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
phonegery

tight-as-can-be horse race because the insiders on the Romney campaign and Karl Rove told him so.

And I would bet money that he doesn't believe a word of it. He's trying to maintain the illusion to bolster turnout in down-ticket races.

"The human eye is a wonderful device. With a little effort, it can fail to see even the most glaring injustice." Richard K. Morgan

• ##### the coin flip and dice(0+ / 0-)

and all the other analogies that people have used here are flawed.

Elections are not decided by random chance, they are decided by people voting.  Polls, however inaccurately, measure people's intentions when it comes to voting.  So percentages based on that measured intention are completely different than the percentage chance from dice or coins or anything determined by random chance