On Sunday I posted a diary discussing an electoral-college option of last resort that Obama could rely on in case Ohio fell. I called them salvation states: NH,IA,CO, and NV are four states that would carry the President to reelection even if he lost Ohio.
When I posted that diary, I was hoping it might get the math nerds to talk about the intricacies of electoral college planning and an interesting discussion would be enjoyed by all. Instead I was almost instantly accused of being a "concern troll" by some zealots. Anyhow, I'm not paid by any Republicans to somehow sabotage the will of the Daily Kos reader (unlike most astroturfers, I can actually defend my positions). But I did want to come back to my earlier post and account for new polling data.
When I'm talking about Obama's salvation strategy, I'm talking about his pathway to 270 without winning Ohio. I want to get this out of the way, that does not mean I think he will lose Ohio, I am simply speculating what Obama's options are should he lose.
My original assessment still stands: NH,IA,CO, and NV (all four of which are currently trending for Obama) would win the election for the President without Ohio. And they could conceivably be held even if the firewall in Ohio failed. But polling data for the past week (and the whole election really) strongly suggests that Nevada has moved from swing to safe. So I'm going to replace Nevada with Virginia (another slight Obama lead).
If we consider Virginia as part of this strategy, Obama's probability of victory sans Ohio becomes even more robust. He can now win with VA + one of NH,IA, or CO. Or he can win with NA+IA+CO. And of course, if Obama wins Florida Romney's chances are DOA.
As I said, it's a backup strategy, but it's a hell of a strong one.
I'd also like to add that the salvation strategy not only provides a realistic shot for an Obama victory without Ohio, but it also provides a valuable buffer should Obama's margin of victory in Ohio be narrow.
The 2000 recount in Florida was intense and dirty precisely because the entire outcome of the electoral college vote hinged on the outcome. The recount of Florida's votes would have been a blip in the news had Gore won New Hamphsire.
As unlikely as it is, nobody wants to see a repeat of 2000 with Ohio playing the role of Florida. If Obama wins enough of the salvation states, even if Ohio is close it won't matter because the outcome will not hinge on a potentially contentious recount.