Skip to main content

You definitely must be noticing a trend that the polls are beginning to revert to likely outcomes - case in point the We Ask America polls (WI, OH, VA). But, more interestingly, Real Clear Politics has meted out its regression to the mean slowly. When Obama-favorable national polls emerge, they are slow to place them on there. When Romney-favorable polls emerge, they are on there quickly.

More telling, is RCP's failure to drop the Gallup number that is pretty stale by now. Ohh, and they have conveniently left out the recent Purple Strategies poll showing Obama +1 nationally. If they subtracted Gallup, and added Purple Strategies, Obama's number would likely scare the crap out of the right. So, slow doses. Purple Strategies will likely be added to RCP closer to the end of the news cycle, so repubs life in the bubble of Mittmentum can go on just a bit longer.

Expect to continue to see polls, nationally, either show a tie, or Obama to win. Ras was probably getting nervous about having an outlier in the national poll, so today it is a tie. I wouldn't be surprised if it remains a tie all the way through the 7th. It's easier to say it was a tossup and hard to predict, than to predict a Romney win they know isn't coming.

BTW, this is my first post. Hello all! My O vote is already in the bank here in WI, in an especially red county.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site