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Per Sam Stein's Twitter feed, President Obama is up 51-46 (LV) in Ohio and 49-47 (LV) in Florida, margins of error 3.1 OH and 2.5 FL.

Not to take anything for granted in terms of winning the election in the first place, but winning Florida could make a nice difference in terms of President Obama's mandate; it's a 58-EV swing and would mark the difference between a simple win and a commanding one.  GOTV in Florida has value: let's make it happen folks.

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Comment Preferences

  •  early voting ends there tomorrow. a problem. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock, MartyM
  •  Mason-Dixon also released FL poll tonight (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    renewables

    it has Romney up 51-45, so we do get some more crap from them.

    •  is this the same poll? (0+ / 0-)
      Times/Bay News 9/Herald Florida Poll: Romney 51, Obama 45
      http://www.tampabay.com/...

      "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

      by MartyM on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:23:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I hate the Mason D poll but (0+ / 0-)

      I remember    in the primary in 08 they were the only one that showed Hillary winning. I always remember that. However, showing Romney with that kinda lead would probably even surprise the Mitt camp

    •  This is a little Crazy (0+ / 0-)

      Two polls. One State. Each released within hours of each other. One has Obama
       up 2 the other has Romney up 6.

      Can't say I'vve seen a difference like that unless Ras or Gallup was one of the Polls. But Mason-Dixon is reputable as is WSJ/NBC/Marist.

      "I can't believe that the noblest instict of man - his compassion for another - can be completley dead here". Col. Dax - Paths of Glory.

      by renewables on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:29:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Mason Dixon had McCain ahead (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TheChocolateChips, TWOFACEMITT

        in OH and FL on the eve of the 2008 election.

        They are fucking shit.

        CNN has called it: Luke Skywalker vs. the Death Star is a tie!

        by GOPGO2H3LL on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:38:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  who has seen internals to this poll (0+ / 0-)

          i dont see in miamu herald or tampa bay times article?

        •  Can't Agree - But your comment is worth noting (0+ / 0-)

          I'm sure any pollster can be found with bad mistakes, particiularly Mason-Dixon which polls a lot.

          The poll was done for the Miami Herald which endorsed Obama.

          Mason-Dixon is average in quality - just a little below NBC/WSJ according to Nate Silver.

          No reason not to deal with reality here.

          "I can't believe that the noblest instict of man - his compassion for another - can be completley dead here". Col. Dax - Paths of Glory.

          by renewables on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:50:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I am dealing with reality. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TWOFACEMITT

            They are a shitty pollster.  So is Zogby, who's been giving Obama big leads.

            Shit is shit.  You can wrap it in 20 dollar wrapping paper, but it's still shit.

            CNN has called it: Luke Skywalker vs. the Death Star is a tie!

            by GOPGO2H3LL on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:06:29 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You May Be Right (0+ / 0-)

              I haven't followed Mason Dixon much this time and I was relying on past election. I spot checked a few of their results and they do seem to favor Romromney. No as much as you suggest but I can see where you could see some bias.

              "I can't believe that the noblest instict of man - his compassion for another - can be completley dead here". Col. Dax - Paths of Glory.

              by renewables on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 11:53:54 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  You sure about Mason-Dixon this cycle? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TheChocolateChips, Delilah

        They seem to have a Romney polling bias, with a R 7-pt lead in Florida earlier in the month.  I remember their polling guy boasting that Florida would be called immediately on election night.

        They also had ran that Minnesota poll with a 3-pt Obama lead last week that got everyone to overreact.  Seems like Romney outliers...

        •  He said the same thing in the Miami Herald Article (0+ / 0-)

          "I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday."

          “Will it be fivepoints? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly,” Coker said, of what he expects Romney’s margin will be. “I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”

          Maybe he's got a Romeny bias or is trying to save face.Miami Herald

          "I can't believe that the noblest instict of man - his compassion for another - can be completley dead here". Col. Dax - Paths of Glory.

          by renewables on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:00:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Looks like an outlier (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      friedmanberg, TheChocolateChips

      In the last week, Florida has been polled 12 times by public pollsters. There were:

      3 Obama +2
      3 Obama +1
      3 Tied
      1 Romney +1
      1 Romney +3
      1 Romney +6

      Which looks like the outlier?

  •  Obama wouldn't be wasting time in FL (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ZappoDave, bear83

    if he didn't think he was gonna win it.

    He's surgical.  He doesn't fuck around with "maybes."

    CNN has called it: Luke Skywalker vs. the Death Star is a tie!

    by GOPGO2H3LL on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 09:39:09 PM PDT

  •  Marist had a 1500+ sample of LV (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delilah

    And they hit the only cross tabs that matter almost spot on. Although slightly favorable to Romney the racial ID 72% white, 11% AA, and 14% Latino is just a shade too high in Romneys favor ( white should be 71% and AA 13%) but despite that Obama is up  2%.
    Anyone seen  Mason Dixon racial cross tabs?

  •  538 has FL state fundamentals at Romney +3.4 (0+ / 0-)

    So even though Nate Silver's adjusted polling average is Romney +0.1, his model's non-poll factors pull Obama's chances of winning FL down to 45%.

    However, 538 really has only the published polls to work with. We all know that Obama's performance with respect to Sandy has created even more of a national tailwind for the president. Maybe some more FL polls will be published that show the full effect of this. Meanwhile I suspect that the 538 model simply does not see this new trend due to lack of polls. I think that Sandy trumps the 538 state fundamentals in FL. Its a black swan event, i.e. never happened before, and therefore cannot be a part of the 538 model until the new polls, if any, pick it up.

    PEC does not use state fundamentals in their simpler poll-median-based model and consequently has a greater chance of Obama winning FL - Obama +0.5%.

    Perhaps, should Obama indeed win FL despite 538 favoring Romney, Nate Silver will find an improvement to his model of state fundamentals.

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