IF/THEN
The Bifurcating Paths to Victory

Assuming O wins MN, WI, MI, and PA, AND O wins Ohio,
he must win at least one of the following:
IA, CO, NV, VA, FL, or NC

Assuming O wins MN, WI, MI, and PA, BUT loses Ohio and wins FL
he wins.

Assuming O wins MN, MI, and PA, BUT loses Ohio and WI and wins FL,
he must win one of the following:
NH, IA, CO, NV, VA, or NC

Assuming O wins MN, WI, MI, and PA, BUT O loses Ohio,
he must win FL
OR he must win two of the following:
NC ,VA, CO
OR he must win three of the following:
CO, (NV OR IA), (VA or NC)
OR he must win three of the following
IA, NV, (VA or NC)
OR he must win four of the following:
NH, IA, CO, NV, VA, NC

Assuming O wins MN, WI, MI, BUT loses PA
he must win FL plus (OH or NC)
OR he must win FL plus any two of the following:
(NV or IA), CO, OH, NH, VA, NC
Or he must win OH and win FL
OR he must win OH plus (NC and VA)
OR he must win OH plus NC plus CO and one of the following:
NV, IA, OH, NH
OR he must win OH plus NC and any two of the states:
NV, IA, NH
OR he must win NC plus VA, CO and (NV or IA)
OR he must win NC  plus VA, NV, IA, and NH
OR he must win OH plus VA and CO and any two of the following:
NV, IA, NH

NOTE:
I'm not really a stat guy, but I've tried to provide a way to look at the path of the dragonfly come election day. If you find errors here or something important I've omitted, please send a reply. Thanks

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#### Comment Preferences

• ##### Tip Jar(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
HoundDog, arizonablue, janmtairy
• ##### This is a lot of paths to victory!(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
janmtairy, a2nite

Tipped and rec'd for using "bifurcating" in a post title without sounding like a mathematical nerd.

The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

• ##### my head is spinning - easier on 538 or Princeton(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
janmtairy, HoundDog

Election consortium - they did the math already and the stats show a Pres Obama LIKELY win PROVIDED folks go out and vote.

I am making a few calls to urge them (Dems that is) to "get on the effing line" and vote

• ##### Turnout will be key. How many of our Democratic (0+ / 0-)

voters who say they will vote will actually turn up?

Historical data and polls on relative enthusiasm  suggest  this should be a valid concern for us.

I'm glad the polls are showing a margin of error.

The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

[ Parent ]

• ##### or you could just go here(0+ / 0-)

Presidential Debates 2012: I. Big Bird; II. Binders; III. Bayonets.