Here's an interesting article from CBS news from an source inside the Romney campaign revealing their internal polls confirm that Super Storm Sandy has flat-lined any momentum in their direction. My own opinion is that any Romney momentum was already nullified even before the storm by delayed accounting of the second and third debates, great endorsements, and accumulating tolls of Romney campaign lies, so that the favorable impact of President Obama's superior response to the storm is building momentum in our direction, on top of an already nullified Romney momentum. But, as long as Team Romney is willing to spread the "implosion of the Romney campaign" meme, I don't mind a little pathetic tangent spin getting mixed in.
However you interpret the causes, you will probably find this article, Romney camp, tension and optimism as Election Day looms, to be an interesting read, despite some concerns that it will raise about possible curve balls we could still face in turnout.
Campaign sources concede superstorm Sandy stalled Romney's momentum. For eight straight days, polls showed him picking up support. The campaign's internal polling, which is using different turnout models than most public polls, had him on solid ground in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa. He had a slight lead or was tied in Ohio, New Hampshire and Wisconsin and was in striking distance in Pennsylvania, a state Republicans hadn't won since Ronald Reagan in 1984. ...
But then came something very big: a natural disaster that left a path of death and destruction on the East Coast. Suddenly, there was little talk about small things.
Those leads in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Iowa still hold in the internal polls, campaign sources say, but Romney's movement flattened out or, as the campaign likes to say, "paused." Nevada is now off the table, and those neck-and-neck swing states are even tighter.
"Even tighter" than "off the table?" Maybe, I'm trying to read too much between the lines here?
Having sources within Team Romney appearing to concede Nevada, as well as their loss of any momentum, is comforting news for me, though not surprising. We also seem far ahead in WI, after briefly seeming to flirt with danger a month ago.
Apparently, Team Romney's claims internal polls still show Romney winning among independents, and maintaining an edge on voter enthusiasm and intensity, which often predict turnout.
The polls also give Romney the edge on voter enthusiasm and intensity, key indicators of turnout, which is what will decide this election. If voters turn out for Mr. Obama as in 2008, he wins. If turnout is closer to 2004, or between 2004 and 2008, as the Romney campaign is banking on, the president is in big trouble.
This boils it down to the impression I'm getting from public polls, as well. If Democratic turnout is closer to 2008, we win. If it looks more like 2000 or 2004 we could still lose this despite our apparent leads in OH, WI, NV, NH, and maybe even CO, and VA.
These inside Romney advisors are quick to point out that they see similar concerns from inside the Obama campaign, and note that President Obama is devoting his resources to defending states he won in 2008, rather than trying to expand his map. They note that the President is going back to Colorado and Ohio, rather than stay in the White House looking presidential while dealing with the Sandy disaster, an advantage the Romney campaign could not match and conceed pulled the rug out from under their efforts, and image.
But, even still, when I read between the lines in this long article I get the impression that even the internal Romney polls are telling them they are not on a trajectory to win, unless Democratic turnout falls short of our current expectations. Likely voter screens, already account for lower expected turn-out from Democratic leaning voters.
So please call all your Democratic friends, relatives, and others and remind the how essential it is that they vote this election. This may be the most important turnout election of our lives.