The Colorado SOS has released the early voting total of 1,640,023 votes cast as of Nov. 3, 2012.The closest races will come down to a county-by-county analysis of the remaining votes. Denver, Arapahoe, Adams, Boulder, Douglas, Jefferson, Larimer, Pueblo, Weld and El Paso counties are the bulk of Colorado's front Range voters. Mesa is a western slope county including the city (town) of Grand Junction.
Party Registration Received
Dem 34.6% 567,569
Rep 36.9% 605,586
None/Oth 28.5% 466,868
As you see, the Republicans have cast 38,017 more ballots statewide than Democrats so far. +2.3.
Join me below the orange serpentine.
Based on the last 3 elections 2006, 2008,2010;Democrats vote between 91-93% according to party affiliation, Republicans in El Paso vote at 85% and statewide 87% according to party affiliation and Unaffiliated lean Democratic 51-54%. (HT to RWN)
Extrapolating these numbers onto a 1,640,023 voter sampling we begin to see a picture of my unprofessional and roughly estimated voting trends from little old obsessed me.
91% of 567,569 Democratic votes cast is 522,163
13% of 605,586 Republican votes cast is 78,726
51% of 466,868 Independent votes cast is 238,102
54% of 466,868 Independent voters cast is 252,108
Total Indy's @ 51% = 838,991 = 51 % Democratic estimate
Total Indy's @ 54% = 852,997= 52 % Democratic estimate
There are 2,749,246 active voters in Colorado and 897,719 inactive voters for a total of 3,646,965.
I have been waiting for the Democratic surge to materialize as the voting numbers are up all the way around. There is no enthusiasm gap on either side however, Colorado seems to be extremely close.
Update: I made a 2 % mistake caught by ncps. I thought the numbers a bit off, but have corrected and I already feel better about the race. Sorry I set off a number of posters. Of course all these numbers are averages of past and current stats.
I hope my armchair analysis is informative in some way.